Whether I'm right or not, only time will tell. That is my take on the likely outcome in southern Iraq, that's all: after Saddam is killed and his regime falls, I think the Shia in southern Iraq are going to turn on the coalition in a very big way. Time will tell whether I'm right.

I should perhaps underscore the fact that I have little doubt that Saddam's regime is going to fall. The question is, what happens after that? That's going to be the hard part... and the serious death toll in and blockading of Basra (no electricity or water now for over 72 hours, ongoing bombardment) is not going to help with how the locals (no friends of Saddam in southern Iraq) see the continued presence of US and UK forces.

As for Brandioch, so far his predictions have been borne out by the facts. He'd probably be more convincing if he didn't gloat about that so much, but then again, he's military; exulting in victory is what they do:]

/me puts on the asbestos suit.

Don't forget, the further into central Iraq the coalition goes, the more difficult it's going to get... Saddam's regime is Sunni, and so is the area around Baghdad. The local population is going to be even more hostile than it is in the south.