The whole war for election strategy depends on timing. But the White House faces a complex balancing act.

On one hand, they want to get in their and get the war over with in the hopes of reaping economic benefit afterwards. Lower oil prices and large contracts funneled to American companies may prop up the economy for a while.

On the other hand, they will reap the greatest support boost during the war itself. In the stages prior to and during the war, there is a natural tendency for Americans to back the president.

They also face the problem that if they wait too long and then suddenly start a war, it will be too obvious that they are starting it to garner support. This risk is greatly compounded if the inspectors come back from Iraq saying the country is fairly clean.

This is compounded by the problem of not knowing how long the war will take, nor the casulties it will cause. Saddam can't win in the face of a full scale attack, but the question of how long he can hold out is an open issue.

From the looks of things now, I think the war is on, and soon. I think the White House planners is afraid that if they wait too long the will run out of grounds to declare war. The inspectors operating in Iraq haven't found anything significant yet, and if the inspectors come back and declare Iraq relativly clean, their excuse for war goes up in smoke.

In this case, they will try and get a new puppet government in Iraq fast. They will still be able to reap some benefit from 'Homeland Security' while pumping Iraqi money into our economy. This tactic has a high chance of working, if they can avoid getting too greedy and giving Democrates a major issue with Social Security, taxes or such.

The sadly funny, but improbable, case is that the White House is going to wait for hard evidence of WMDs. The thing is, Saddam may actually not have any right now. Saddam is, above all else, concerned with staying alive and in power. He may have ordered all the WMDs destroyed before the inspectors got to Iraq, since the inspectors finding anything could be deadly to him.

If that does happen, all the money spent on military build up and movement is wasted. The economy goes into the crapper, and Bush sets himself up for a defeat worse then his fathers.

Jay

"Image over substance" became the norm under Reagan.

Not of course that Reagan invented the idea, but he did take it to new levels.

But, as Bush Sr. found out, it really doesn't work for the economy as a whole. If the economy tanks as a whole, there is nothing that Bush can do to cover it up. And the only thing that would have a chance of keeping him in office is an active war.

Jay