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New Macroeconomics, monetary, and fiscal policy
Bryce's suggestion isnt' too far from the fundamentals of macroeconomics. He's basically espousing a Keynsian solution, and he may be right about it.

One of several situations the confounds a recession/depression is a liquidity crunch. This occurs when lending and financing activities slow (or cease), and capital isn't available for investment. As the world never seems to learn, this isn't a static system, it's a dynamic one, and the problem is that less money for investment means fewer means of production means less employment (at lower pay) means lower consumption.... You get the picture. Downward spiral. For a good example, look at Japan since 1990.

One way of increasing the money supply is to relax lending conditions. This is what happens when the Federal Reserve Bank lowers its lending rate (essentially, the short-term emergency lending rate to banks). This reduces commercial bank interest rates, and makes it easier to get a loan. This is known as monetary policy -- it directly regulates the amount of money in circulation -- and was championed by Milton Freidman of the Chicago School (University of Chicago's economics department).

Another way is to increase Federal spending. This can be done by printing money, but more ususually (and sanely) is to increase Federal borrowing. The money is spent directly through Federal appropriations on specified budget items. This is known as fiscal policy -- it's concerned with government fiscal (spending) policy -- and was championed by John Maynard Keynes.

Each tool has its plusses and minuses. Monetary policy can be enacted very quickly (say, within a weeks' notice), and tends to have impacts in fairly short order. However it requires room to move -- with interest rates now at near all-time lows, there's little room to exercise additional rate cuts without introducing negative interest rates. That's possible (and even has a real meaning), but would be foreign to many people. Monetary policy is also indirect and non-targeted. You're making it easier to spend money, but without specifying where that money should be spent.

Fiscal policy takes far longer to enact -- it requires a federal budgetary cycle, partisan bickering, and then actual expenditure by departments. An argument against the tax cuts enacted by Congress last summer was that they wouldn't actually start having an impact on the economy for another year (which would ba about now). Fiscal policy makes more sense in an extended downturn. Fiscal policy does have the advantage that it can be specifically targetted at economic sectors or regions. With wisdom, these are based on real impacts and not merely political expedience.

Simply printing more money can also be done. It's something of a mix of both alternatives There is an inflation risk, but inflation is at historic lows. As a strategy to combat low levels of investment, this may be a useful strategy. But there are other structural problems of greater concern -- trust and demographics (aging Boomers) being chief among them.

[Edits: There are no speling errers in this document. I steak my name on it. Krastne Slef.]
--
Karsten M. Self [link|mailto:kmself@ix.netcom.com|kmself@ix.netcom.com]
[link|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/|[link|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/]]
What part of "gestalt" don't you understand?
[link|http://twiki.iwethey.org/twiki/bin/view/Main/|TWikIWETHEY] -- an experiment in collective intelligence. Stupidity. Whatever.

   Keep software free.     Oppose the CBDTPA.     Kill S.2048 dead.
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Expand Edited by kmself Aug. 6, 2002, 02:54:04 AM EDT
New Micronit.
[link|http://www-hoover.stanford.edu/bios/friedman.html|Milton Freidman] - Claimed by the University of Chicago Department of Economics because he won his Nobel Prize while on the faculty (and because he got an AM from Chicago). He's been at Stanford's Hoover Institution since 1977.

Cheers,
Scott.
New "School"
...in the sense I'm referring to means the followers of a specific doctrine. In this sense, [link|http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/schools/chicago.htm|the Chicago School of Economics] refers to the conservative fiscal policy doctrines which arose from the faculty at Hyde Park in Chicago. While several may be elsewhere (or dead) and peforming the most societally useful work, the school of thought continues to be known by this name, though some say [link|http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/L-chimain.htm|it's lost much of its former standing].
--
Karsten M. Self [link|mailto:kmself@ix.netcom.com|kmself@ix.netcom.com]
[link|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/|[link|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/]]
What part of "gestalt" don't you understand?
[link|http://twiki.iwethey.org/twiki/bin/view/Main/|TWikIWETHEY] -- an experiment in collective intelligence. Stupidity. Whatever.

   Keep software free.     Oppose the CBDTPA.     Kill S.2048 dead.
[link|http://www.eff.org/alerts/20020322_eff_cbdtpa_alert.html|[link|http://www.eff.org/alerts/20020322_eff_cbdtpa_alert.html|http://www.eff.org/...a_alert.html]]
New Perhaps I should explain.
When I first noticed they typo in his name I thought I'd also write that he was associated with the U of C Graduate School of Business (rather than the Economics department). But, of course, he wasn't - I don't know why I thought that he was. You were correct about that.

So it really was just a spelling nit, not anything about the Chicago School - of which he was/is clearly an important figure. The fact that he's been at Stanford since his Nobel was awarded is just a bit of trivia.

:-)

Cheers,
Scott.
New There's no use explaining
Next time, just grab a 2x4...no, make that a 4-by, and whomp me upside the head for a few hours. Then see if you can find a part of me that might actually be damaged by such treatment.

Can't believe you had to point that out to me twice before I saw it....
--
Karsten M. Self [link|mailto:kmself@ix.netcom.com|kmself@ix.netcom.com]
[link|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/|[link|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/|http://kmself.home.netcom.com/]]
What part of "gestalt" don't you understand?
[link|http://twiki.iwethey.org/twiki/bin/view/Main/|TWikIWETHEY] -- an experiment in collective intelligence. Stupidity. Whatever.

   Keep software free.     Oppose the CBDTPA.     Kill S.2048 dead.
[link|http://www.eff.org/alerts/20020322_eff_cbdtpa_alert.html|[link|http://www.eff.org/alerts/20020322_eff_cbdtpa_alert.html|http://www.eff.org/...a_alert.html]]
New Looking at the 1930's
I have read that a bunch economists came to the conclusion that the 1930's depression was due to adherance to the "gold standard". This is the act of limiting the money available to what is in the gov gold vaults. According to this view, the solution is to print/release more money into the economy.

BTW, does anybody know how the relative magnitude of the 20's boom compares to the dot-com boom?

It is theorized that the bust size is a reversed mirror of the boom size.
________________
oop.ismad.com
New Trouble with fiscal policy
This can be done by printing money, but more ususually (and sanely) is to increase Federal borrowing. The money is spent directly through Federal appropriations on specified budget items.

Isn't this theory, however, related directly to running a brief deficit and spending it on things of substance like hospitals, schools, etc. - and then in "good" years, paying off the deficit when there's a surplus?

Forget for a moment that the "budget surplus" of the last couple of Clinton years was largely illusionary. Assume that it were true. Every bloody member of Congress started salivating at the chance of spending every last dime of whatever part of that so-called surplus on whatever they could get their hands on.
The lawyers would mostly rather be what they are than get out of the way even if the cost was Hammerfall. - Jerry Pournelle
New rainy-day fund
(* Every bloody member of Congress started salivating at the chance of spending every last dime of whatever part of that so-called surplus on whatever they could get their hands on. *)

I swear that I was thinking at the time that they should create a rainy-day economic fund (not a soc sec "lockbox") with the surplus. I think only a few senators mentioned such a thing.

Everybody else was stooopid.

________________
oop.ismad.com
New Re: rainy-day fund
I swear that I was thinking at the time that they should create a rainy-day economic fund (not a soc sec "lockbox") with the surplus. I think only a few senators mentioned such a thing.


Or pay down the debt, or *something* constructive.

But NOOOOOOOO, let's fund that (unwanted) dam on some godforsaken river nobody heard about, or Highway 989 to nowhere, or whatever.

They took WorldCom executives into custody? By those standards, 90% of Congress would be in prison, 9% would have successfully shredded and burned any incriminating documents, and the remaining honest 1% of Congress would start getting bloated heads and start doing the same things all over again.
The lawyers would mostly rather be what they are than get out of the way even if the cost was Hammerfall. - Jerry Pournelle
New Pork
But NOOOOOOOO, let's fund that (unwanted) dam on some godforsaken

The list of pork in a recent Reader's Digest was sickening (if true). Statue renovation, fairgrounds, local museums, etc.

Reagan tried to reduce pork by asking for line-item veto power. However, it was turned down as unconsitutional. Thus, one must take the package all-or-nothing; which means PORK.

------------------------

In other news, some are blaming Greenspan for economic problems:

[link|http://money.cnn.com/2002/08/06/news/economy/greenspan_case/index.htm|http://money.cnn.co...se/index.htm]

I especially like their timeline:

1990-1991 - Recession

1991-1992 - Jobless Recovery

Nov. 1992 - Pres. Bush joins ranks of unemployed

Like father like son..... (regardless of actual fault)
     Print some fricken money!!! - (tablizer) - (21)
         Whoa whoa whoa, hold on that Tex! - (orion) - (12)
             Not 0 versus a million - (tablizer) - (11)
                 You still have to pay for it - (orion) - (10)
                     Macroeconomics, monetary, and fiscal policy - (kmself) - (9)
                         Micronit. - (Another Scott) - (3)
                             "School" - (kmself) - (2)
                                 Perhaps I should explain. - (Another Scott) - (1)
                                     There's no use explaining - (kmself)
                         Looking at the 1930's - (tablizer)
                         Trouble with fiscal policy - (wharris2) - (3)
                             rainy-day fund - (tablizer) - (2)
                                 Re: rainy-day fund - (wharris2) - (1)
                                     Pork - (tablizer)
         basic economic facts - (boxley) - (2)
             re: cigarette example - (tablizer)
             Wrong problem -- control point, not wealth itself - (kmself)
         Printing money is just another accounting trick. - (marlowe) - (4)
             *All* Finance Capitalism is accounting tricks. -NT - (deSitter)
             This trick happens to matter though - (ben_tilly) - (2)
                 Adiabatic Change - Economics as Thermodynamics - (deSitter) - (1)
                     The heat-death of economics... - (ben_tilly)

He said, "Listen, shrimp. Don't you come trolling around here." What a crab. This guy was steamed. I could see the anchor in his eyes.
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