Post #46,532
7/23/02 2:35:27 PM
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Are we at a unique point?
Everyone always believes they live in unique times, and has a good reason for believing so. But there is a conluence of factors I don't think has existed before: - An undisputed world power appears to be on the downhill side of its dominance.
- A significant proportion of the population of this power has a personal stake in its continued dominance. (Stock market investment)
- Traditional imperialism can't work any more.
- There just isn't any more virgin territory to accquire.
- Very little of the planet is still even pre-industrial, and ripe for colonialism.
- Global communication means everyone is watching.
If you take out the speculation, the stock market is essentially an indicator of the overall health of the economy. If the U.S. truly is in decline as a world power, how can we assume the market will continue to go up, much less even offer returns? Whenever I read about what the stock market has "always" done, I try to keep in mind that the U.S. has only existed as a major world player for about 60 years. (I'm counting back to our involvement in WWII.) Previous empires were measured in centuries. Has there ever been an empire that rose as high as the U.S. has, as quickly? And how long did it last? How long did it take to descend back to "just another player" status? ===
Microsoft offers them the one thing most business people will pay any price for - the ability to say "we had no choice - everyone's doing it that way." -- [link|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=38978|Andrew Grygus]
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Post #46,542
7/23/02 3:46:05 PM
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3 years of low times does not make for a downfall
The "business cycle" has been around before, sometimes big, sometimes small.
However, it is true that "the end" usually comes during the lower times. If you have a weak heart, then it is more likely to "bust" while running from a grizzly than from watching StarTrek.
Thus, bad streaks should be watched with care, but not enough to panic.......yet.
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oop.ismad.com
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Post #46,651
7/24/02 12:59:22 AM
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If you ask me
it is the 1990's all over again. We are heading towards another recession, I can feel it. Going to be really hard to get jobs and make ends meet for a few years or so.
I am free now, to choose my own destiny.
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Post #46,868
7/25/02 3:54:07 PM
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It is when...
It is when:
I look at my daughter's S & P 500 Index fund, which is her college fund, and it's 19% LESS then when I opened it over 4 years ago, and that's including contributions...
I look at my son's S & P 500 Index fund, which is also for his college fund, and it's almost 25% LESS then when I opened it 2 1/2 years ago, and that's including contributions... (Yeah, I know: lousy timing on my part.)
I look at the primary IRA fund that I opened over 10 years ago, and it currently has about the same amount plus contributions since I opened it, meaning I've lost all "profit" that this fund has ever earned. I would have more money had I just stuck it all into a simple bank savings account.
I won't even get into the shakiness I have with my current job; I have no desire to HAVE TO look for one in today's economy.
lincoln
"Four score and seven years ago, I had a better sig"
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Post #46,627
7/23/02 9:53:05 PM
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World domination hasn't tended to last many centuries
For instance before the US, the dominant world power was England. And it held that title from some time in the 1800's to WW II (with a clear voluntary decline from WW I on).
Before that we had France in the 1700's until the French Revolution.
Before that we had Spain from 1492 until they lost the Spanish Armada in 1588. And another one in 1589.
So we have had several instances of a single country who was militarily on par with the rest of Europe, and was as a practical matter able to extend its forces at will around the globe. And in each case this period of supremecy lasted in the general neighbourhood of a century. The US position can be maintained for a while longer I suspect. At a guess history will find that the current "War on Terrorism" resulting in complex and growing trails of entanglements around the world inevitably lead to the US over-extending itself. But that will take some time.
And about uniqueness, that is both true and false. We tend to look back on the singular events of previous generations and regard them as flukes. We are therefore astounded to find ourselves in the middle of defining moments for our generation. The last few years of the stock market are truly a "once in a lifetime" thing. Not many alive today remember the last one which was comparable. It is unlikely that most alive today will ever again see the like.
Cheers,
Ben
"... I couldn't see how anyone could be educated by this self-propagating system in which people pass exams, teach others to pass exams, but nobody knows anything."
--Richard Feynman
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Post #46,649
7/24/02 12:43:19 AM
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"Kiddies: I barely survived the Digital Dustbowl"
re: "The last few years of the stock market are truly a "once in a lifetime" thing. Not many alive today remember the last one which was comparable. It is unlikely that most alive today will ever again see the like."
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oop.ismad.com
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Post #46,652
7/24/02 1:01:25 AM
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Hey, remember the late 80's and early 90's?
Back when the computer industry suffered a slowdown? Sort of the same thing happened recently.
I am free now, to choose my own destiny.
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Post #46,669
7/24/02 6:18:40 AM
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I was talking about the stock market as a whole...
and not just one corner of it.
Besides even that corner of it this time around represented a lot more money for a lot more people.
Cheers,
Ben
"... I couldn't see how anyone could be educated by this self-propagating system in which people pass exams, teach others to pass exams, but nobody knows anything."
--Richard Feynman
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Post #46,671
7/24/02 6:26:07 AM
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Well it feels like the early 1990's
that was the last time that I was out of a job for this long. Another Bush is president, and we are (almost) at war with Iraq. What else could it possibly be?
I am free now, to choose my own destiny.
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Post #46,653
7/24/02 1:02:20 AM
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Who knows, maybe India will be next?
They sure have a lot of people, and they are learning computing technology real fast to get jobs over here. So maybe in 10 or 20 years US Citizens will be applying for Work Visas to work in India? :)
I am free now, to choose my own destiny.
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Post #46,935
7/25/02 10:55:50 PM
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I don't think so
(* Who knows, maybe India will be next? *)
It appears that the key to economic success is lack of government interference. There is a strong correlation between government fiddling and economic health it appears. India is way too heavy-handed in that regard. Why do you think they all come over here?
I have no decent guess as to the next super-power. Perhaps China, but its past cycles suggest that such won't happen unless history does not repeat itself there.
________________
oop.ismad.com
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