Election Special! UK General Election is set for the 8th of June.
OK, so here's where we're at. The Conservatives are a horrid mess of misguided or malfeasant austerity, yet they're polling nearly 20 points ahead of Labour.
The Prime Minister, Theresa May, on the other hand, is totally fucking crushing it with a dominant 37-point lead over her Labour counterpart, Jeremy Corbyn.
However, the underlying party dynamics are quite different. Corbyn's principle source of criticism (within the machinery of the party) is from the elected Parliamentary Labour Party (i.e. MPs). His support amongst paid-up Labour Party members is strong. At the heart of this is an organisation called Momentum, which feels very much like the Militant of old. Well, if it looks/walks/quacks, etc.
So the basics are, I think, pretty well understood. Conservatives will likely extend their lead over Labour to in excess of 100 seats. Liberal Democrats will almost certainly recover from the drubbing they received in 2015, predominantly at the expense of Labour, with moderate voters who want a centrist approach going yellow. SNP will lose some seats (because when you win absolutely everything, the only way is down) but nothing for Nicola Sturgeon to worry about. Fringe parties gonna fringe. Far more will be written about UKIP than they deserve. The Greens will write a generally nice manifesto laced with utter delusional fuckwittery, and they will continue to have only one MP.
The big question here is: is almost total electoral destruction and humiliation sufficient to oust Corbyn, or will his Momentum shock troopers and the 400K party members persist in their current "the reason we lost 2015 is simply that we weren't left-wing enough" reasoning, despite the evidence to the contrary?
The Prime Minister, Theresa May, on the other hand, is totally fucking crushing it with a dominant 37-point lead over her Labour counterpart, Jeremy Corbyn.
However, the underlying party dynamics are quite different. Corbyn's principle source of criticism (within the machinery of the party) is from the elected Parliamentary Labour Party (i.e. MPs). His support amongst paid-up Labour Party members is strong. At the heart of this is an organisation called Momentum, which feels very much like the Militant of old. Well, if it looks/walks/quacks, etc.
So the basics are, I think, pretty well understood. Conservatives will likely extend their lead over Labour to in excess of 100 seats. Liberal Democrats will almost certainly recover from the drubbing they received in 2015, predominantly at the expense of Labour, with moderate voters who want a centrist approach going yellow. SNP will lose some seats (because when you win absolutely everything, the only way is down) but nothing for Nicola Sturgeon to worry about. Fringe parties gonna fringe. Far more will be written about UKIP than they deserve. The Greens will write a generally nice manifesto laced with utter delusional fuckwittery, and they will continue to have only one MP.
The big question here is: is almost total electoral destruction and humiliation sufficient to oust Corbyn, or will his Momentum shock troopers and the 400K party members persist in their current "the reason we lost 2015 is simply that we weren't left-wing enough" reasoning, despite the evidence to the contrary?
