The GOP's 1972?
In the Washington Monthly the aptly-named Martin Longman posts this lengthy piece in which he argues that the growing fissure between an ossified, out-of-touch GOP establishment and an energized, not to say fanatical, "base" resentful of being handed nominees chosen by the said establishment, could lead to much tearing of hair and rending of garments after the votes are tallied next November. It is by no means necessary to agree with all his conclusions in order to find some of the comparisons intriguing. In the post Longman quotes a 1974 analysis by David Broder(!) (who wasn't always a hack, though few are old enough to remember that fact firsthand):
cordially,
But the key to the 1972 convention result lay, not in rules manipulations, but in two independent factors, as peculiar in their way as the accidents that befell Kennedy and McCarthy in 1968.I'm not going to bet the rent on this just yet, but lately I'm inclined to advance my evaluation of Trump's prospects in the nomination fight from "not a chance in hell" to "even money." Longman inclines to the belief that this would yield a GOP "wipeout," but that kind of general election seems too close to Russian roulette for my liking.
One was the collapse of Edmund Muskie, the front-runner for the nomination and the consequent derailment of the vehicle on which most of the party regulars and elected officials had expected to ride to Miami Beach. No one in modern political history has dissipated as many assets as rapidly as did Muskie in the winter and spring of 1972.
The other key factor was the inability of George Meany to pick a candidate to back in the early going. Facing a divided AFL-CIO executive board, Meany declined to choose among Muskie, Humphrey, and Henry (“Scoop”) Jackson. Not until the California primary, when it was too late, did the AFL-CIO come in full force behind Humphrey, and it nearly turned the tide...
cordially,
