IWETHEY v. 0.3.0 | TODO
1,095 registered users | 0 active users | 0 LpH | Statistics
Login | Create New User
IWETHEY Banner

Welcome to IWETHEY!

New America’s Hidden Austerity Program

Why is the recovery from this recession different from recoveries from past recessions? In the previous two recessions, it took 32 months for nonfarm employment to reattain its June 1990 peak, and 48 months for it to reattain its January 2001 peak. Assuming the economy keeps adding nonfarm employment at the current rate, it will have taken 88 months to reattain its January 2008 peak. The explanation most often heard is that “financial crises are different”: after a debt crisis, shaken consumers are reluctant to spend and shaken firms are reluctant to hire, slowing private-sector job growth even after the recession has bottomed out.

There is some truth in this, but it is not the whole story. In fact, while the latest recession was particularly deep, the recovery in private-sector employment, once it finally started, has not been particularly slow by recent historical standards. In the 27 months since the start of the current employment recovery, the private sector has added 4.3 million jobs, fewer than the 5.0 million it added in the 27 months after February 1992 but not many fewer than the 4.5 million it added in the equivalent period after August 2003.

But there is something historically different about this recession and its aftermath: in the past, local government employment has been almost recession-proof. This time it’s not. Going back as long as the data have been collected (1955), with the one exception of the 1981 recession, local government employment continued to grow almost every month regardless of what the economy threw at it. But since the latest recession began, local government employment has fallen by 3 percent, and is still falling. In the equivalent period following the 1990 and 2001 recessions, local government employment grew 7.7 and 5.2 percent. Even following the 1981 recession, by this stage local government employment was up by 1.4 percent.

Who is losing these local government jobs? In 1981 it was mostly teachers. Now, the losses are shared by teachers and other local government workers alike.

State government is much less important than local because it is a much smaller share of total nonfarm employment: 4 percent versus 10 percent. Nevertheless, a similar story can be told there. This far into each recession since 1955, state government employment had grown. Since the start of the latest recession, state government employment is still down 1.2 percent.

Without this hidden austerity program, the economy would look very different. If state and local governments had followed the pattern of the previous two recessions, they would have added 1.4 million to 1.9 million jobs and overall unemployment would be 7.0 to 7.3 percent instead of 8.2 percent.

Why is this happening? One possibility is that we are witnessing a secular change in state and local politics, with voters no longer willing to pay for an ever-larger work force. An alternative explanation is that even though many state and local governments are constrained not to run deficits, they can muddle through a standard recession without cutting jobs. But when hit by a huge recession like that of 1981 or the latest one, the usual mix of creative accounting and shifting in capital expenditures cannot absorb the shock, and jobs have to go.

It has become commonplace to contrast the American and European responses to the Great Recession, with stimulus in the former and austerity in the latter. European austerity has been at the level of member states and local governments — there is no meaningful federal government of Europe to provide either stimulus or austerity. But the United States has also seen unprecedented austerity at the level of state and local governments, and this austerity has slowed the job recovery.



http://economix.blog...usterity-program/




"Chicago to my mind was the only place to be. ... I above all liked the city because it was filled with people all a-bustle, and the clatter of hooves and carriages, and with delivery wagons and drays and peddlers and the boom and clank of freight trains. And when those black clouds came sailing in from the west, pouring thunderstorms upon us so that you couldn't hear the cries or curses of humankind, I liked that best of all. Chicago could stand up to the worst God had to offer. I understood why it was built--a place for trade, of course, with railroads and ships and so on, but mostly to give all of us a magnitude of defiance that is not provided by one house on the plains. And the plains is where those storms come from."

-- E.L. Doctorow
New question for you
Going back as long as the data have been collected (1955), with the one exception of the 1981 recession, local government employment continued to grow almost every month regardless of what the economy threw at it.
why does government have to grow without end? Is there a financial reasoning behind that or is it just because that's what government does?

So we can only have higher government spending for more and more government employees to maintain ever worsening services with ever increasing local taxes to make up the shortfall. If that is the case we are all detroit
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
New have the GOP cut the Pentagon budget
by at least $100 billion first, then get back to me, okay?




"Chicago to my mind was the only place to be. ... I above all liked the city because it was filled with people all a-bustle, and the clatter of hooves and carriages, and with delivery wagons and drays and peddlers and the boom and clank of freight trains. And when those black clouds came sailing in from the west, pouring thunderstorms upon us so that you couldn't hear the cries or curses of humankind, I liked that best of all. Chicago could stand up to the worst God had to offer. I understood why it was built--a place for trade, of course, with railroads and ships and so on, but mostly to give all of us a magnitude of defiance that is not provided by one house on the plains. And the plains is where those storms come from."

-- E.L. Doctorow
New sure, but you were talking state and local
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
New Re: have the GOP cut the Pentagon budget
Now, now, Linc, would you deny them fuel?

http://www.nationald...aGallonofGas.aspx

[...]

"The Army estimated fuel can cost up to $400 a gallon if the only way to ship it is via helicopters."


http://online.wsj.co...613427403928.html

"This particular launch was successful: a total of 36 bundles reached the drop zone.

But two parachutes did not fully open, and pallets stacked with barrels of fuel slammed into the ground, lost or badly damaged—"burned in," as crews say.

"That's the cost of doing business," said Lt. Col. Bill Willson, the squadron's commander."



It's the cost of business! (Not war, business.)
New My guess would be
because there are more people. AFAIK, US population is growing, not shrinking.
New Ding ding ding!
--

Drew
New GMTA. :-)
New detroit is not growing
and we have a sales tax to handle that part. The percentage of growth in local government has been in excess of population growth. Part of the problem is that not long ago local governments were considered the sinecure for local families with cushy insider thievery of public resources. The tax base is no longer able to maintain that style of government any more and the blowback by the insiders is getting very blatant. The people see this and extrapolate this to state and national governments and determine that they are all thieves and need the money supply cut off. A new set of thieves called republicans are promising to clean it up. This is why wisconsin re-elected their governor.
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
New Move the top marginal tax rate back to 92%. That'll help.
New sure it will, lets just confiscate any assets over $200k
from everyone who has more that that and reset. Should keep us in the red for about 3 months or so. That would include drug dealers, tycoons, union leaders and politicians. If any of those people are productive they will earn it back.
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
New Population growth. HTH.
New Yeah, all dem gubmint bureaucrats are gonna strangle us...
http://krugman.blogs...en-more-teachers/

Cheers,
Scott.
New dont doubt it
We pay a huarge amount per pupil and get nothing in return. After 2 of 3 kids going thru "public schools" both had to get an external source of education because of the fact that schools have fuckall to do with education but are a government sponsored daycare system do get the children to be used to the cycle of poverty jail and direct government control of their daily lives
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
New You're right!!!11
Privatizing the prisons has been a great success story. No doubt we'll have similar advances in cost efficiency, effectiveness, and social impact when the public schools are gone, too.

Of course things would be even better if all the kids were home-schooled. It's much more efficient to do that. It would have the benefit reducing the unemployment rate, too. After all, a woman's place is in the home. No doubt the economy would boom then, what with the lower taxes and all.

Right?

</snark>

:-/

Believe it or not, we have experience with not having public schools. Things weren't so great back then, and there's a reason why public schools were created. http://en.wikipedia....of_public_schools Social goods are not 100% economically efficient, but they have benefits that don't show up in a spreadsheet...

We don't spend too much on primary and secondary public schools - http://www.oecd.org/...1/17/48630884.pdf (page 227 of 8 page PDF). The US spends a lot on colleges and universities, but we get a lot of benefits from that investment (or did in the past - we're eating our seed-corn now...).

If your schools have issues, cutting their funding isn't going to fix them. And doing without will make things worse. You fix problems by fixing them (not finding sound-bite scapegoats) and that often costs money.

My $0.02.

Cheers,
Scott.
     America’s Hidden Austerity Program - (lincoln) - (14)
         question for you - (boxley) - (13)
             have the GOP cut the Pentagon budget - (lincoln) - (2)
                 sure, but you were talking state and local -NT - (boxley)
                 Re: have the GOP cut the Pentagon budget - (dmcarls)
             My guess would be - (jake123) - (5)
                 Ding ding ding! -NT - (drook)
                 GMTA. :-) -NT - (Another Scott)
                 detroit is not growing - (boxley) - (2)
                     Move the top marginal tax rate back to 92%. That'll help. -NT - (mmoffitt) - (1)
                         sure it will, lets just confiscate any assets over $200k - (boxley)
             Population growth. HTH. -NT - (Another Scott)
             Yeah, all dem gubmint bureaucrats are gonna strangle us... - (Another Scott) - (2)
                 dont doubt it - (boxley) - (1)
                     You're right!!!11 - (Another Scott)

How?
63 ms