I may have a narrowly focussed view

My direct exposure to finance is almost all within the context of securitizing loans into bonds. Thus I am rather aware of the fundamental shift in how debt is being funded as securitization becomes accepted in more and more markets. What I see are historically amazing debt levels, and fundamental increases in how much debt there can be. However I don't deal with macro-economics much, so see that out of context.

As for the party, it is at Bill Patient's house (bepatient), near Philadelphia, on July 6. It has been a tradition for a long time, and the last couple of years some IWETHEYers have started coming. People who have shown include bepatient, myself, broomberg, imric, jb4, boxley, kmself, and Dhyana Wood. (I know I have missed some...)

I would expect some postings closer to the time around the water cooler...

Cheers,
Ben

My direct exposure to finance is almost all within the context of securitizing loans into bonds. Thus I am rather aware of the fundamental shift in how debt is being funded as securitization becomes accepted in more and more markets. What I see are historically amazing debt levels, and fundamental increases in how much debt there can be. However I don't deal with macro-economics much, so see that out of context.

That's so cool! What I do is program automated valuation mechanisms, and one of the big feedback loops for our business is the increasing securitzation of the mortgage industry. Banks and mortgage companies with mortgage securities are really interested in our AVM because it gives them a way to estimate the risk exposure of their portfolios. (In turn the banks' loan origination and compliance people realized that they could use AVMs themselves.) It's really cool that you are on the other end of that.

I don't think there's any question that real estate is doing something funny, and that the something is quite possibly a bubble. Real estate is an extremely incomplete and inefficient market, so price bubbles and busts are pretty much par for the course. Debt and price levels in the real estate market are at decade-long highs, and we're amazingly lucky that the real estate and stock markets didn't come down at the same time. God clearly still favors drunks and Americans.

From my perspective, securitization is on the whole a good thing, because it offers banks a way of dispersing risk. Ten thousand investors losing a million bucks is a lot less dangerous than 10 banks losing a billion each. If leads to products that let homeowners reduce their risk exposure -- like home price insurance or shared-appreciation mortgages -- then it's wonderful. A home is almost always the single largest piece of undiversified risk a family has. When I think about it, that fact gives me the willies.

As for the party, it is at Bill Patient's house (bepatient), near Philadelphia, on July 6. It has been a tradition for a long time, and the last couple of years some IWETHEYers have started coming. People who have shown include bepatient, myself, broomberg, imric, jb4, boxley, kmself, and Dhyana Wood. (I know I have missed some...)

Cool.

Post #35,530 by ben_tilly 4/15/02 9:32:17 PM Reply	I may have a narrowly focussed view My direct exposure to finance is almost all within the context of securitizing loans into bonds. Thus I am rather aware of the fundamental shift in how debt is being funded as securitization becomes accepted in more and more markets. What I see are historically amazing debt levels, and fundamental increases in how much debt there can be. However I don't deal with macro-economics much, so see that out of context. As for the party, it is at Bill Patient's house (bepatient), near Philadelphia, on July 6. It has been a tradition for a long time, and the last couple of years some IWETHEYers have started coming. People who have shown include bepatient, myself, broomberg, imric, jb4, boxley, kmself, and Dhyana Wood. (I know I have missed some...) I would expect some postings closer to the time around the water cooler... Cheers, Ben "... I couldn't see how anyone could be educated by this self-propagating system in which people pass exams, teach others to pass exams, but nobody knows anything." --Richard Feynman
Post #35,575 by neelk 4/16/02 9:22:30 AM Reply	Re: I may have a narrowly focussed view My direct exposure to finance is almost all within the context of securitizing loans into bonds. Thus I am rather aware of the fundamental shift in how debt is being funded as securitization becomes accepted in more and more markets. What I see are historically amazing debt levels, and fundamental increases in how much debt there can be. However I don't deal with macro-economics much, so see that out of context. That's so cool! What I do is program automated valuation mechanisms, and one of the big feedback loops for our business is the increasing securitzation of the mortgage industry. Banks and mortgage companies with mortgage securities are really interested in our AVM because it gives them a way to estimate the risk exposure of their portfolios. (In turn the banks' loan origination and compliance people realized that they could use AVMs themselves.) It's really cool that you are on the other end of that. I don't think there's any question that real estate is doing something funny, and that the something is quite possibly a bubble. Real estate is an extremely incomplete and inefficient market, so price bubbles and busts are pretty much par for the course. Debt and price levels in the real estate market are at decade-long highs, and we're amazingly lucky that the real estate and stock markets didn't come down at the same time. God clearly still favors drunks and Americans. From my perspective, securitization is on the whole a good thing, because it offers banks a way of dispersing risk. Ten thousand investors losing a million bucks is a lot less dangerous than 10 banks losing a billion each. If leads to products that let homeowners reduce their risk exposure -- like home price insurance or shared-appreciation mortgages -- then it's wonderful. A home is almost always the single largest piece of undiversified risk a family has. When I think about it, that fact gives me the willies. As for the party, it is at Bill Patient's house (bepatient), near Philadelphia, on July 6. It has been a tradition for a long time, and the last couple of years some IWETHEYers have started coming. People who have shown include bepatient, myself, broomberg, imric, jb4, boxley, kmself, and Dhyana Wood. (I know I have missed some...) Cool.
Post #35,692 by ben_tilly 4/16/02 7:28:04 PM Reply	What kind of real estate loans? I suspect we aren't actually on the opposite sides of the same industry, but we aren't far from it. If you want to take this offlist, my email is my user name at operamail dot com. Cheers, Ben "... I couldn't see how anyone could be educated by this self-propagating system in which people pass exams, teach others to pass exams, but nobody knows anything." --Richard Feynman

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