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New Kwak's take at BaselineScenario [tyop]
http://baselinescena...k-to-market-myth/

Today the Financial Accounting Standards Board voted - by one vote - to relax accounting standards for certain types of securities, giving banks greater discretion in determining what price to carry them at on their balance sheets. The new rules were sought by the American Bankers Association, and not surprisingly will allow banks to increase their reported profits and strengthen their balance sheets by allowing them to increase the reported values of their toxic assets.

This makes no sense, for three reasons.

1. Investors and regulators are not idiots. They know what the accounting rules are. If banks claim they were forced to mark their assets down to “fire-sale” prices, investors can look at the facts themselves and apply any upward corrections they want. Now that banks will be able to mark their assets up to prices based solely on their own models, investors will the downward corrections they want. It’s a little like what happened when companies were forced to account for stock option compensation as expenses; nothing happened to stock prices, because anyone who wanted to could already read the footnotes and do the calculations himself.

[...]

2. Between the two options, this is the unsafe choice. Accounting in general is supposed to embody a principle of conservatism. Given plausible optimistic and pessimistic rules, you are supposed to choose the pessimistic one.

[...]

3. Mark-to-market is a red herring to begin with. Accounting rules are much more complex than “all assets must be marked to market” and “all assets can be marked to model.” There are different types of assets (Level 1, 2, and 3); different types of impairments to asset values (temporary and other-than-temporary); different accounting impacts (some writedowns on the balance sheet affect income statement profitability, some don’t); and, most importantly, different ways of holding assets. How a bank accounts for an asset depends in part on whether it says that asset is held for trading purposes, is available for sale, or will be held to maturity. Wharton has a high-level discussion of some of these issues, but if you really want to understand them you should read Sections 1.B-D of the SEC’s study of mark-to-market accounting, which I helpfully summarized for you in an earlier post.

The SEC’s conclusions were, in short:

* Most bank assets are not marked to market to begin with, and half of the ones that are marked to market are the type that don’t affect the income statement.

* Marking assets to market had only a very small impact on bank capital through September 2008.

* The bank failures of 2008, including Washington Mutual, were not caused by marking assets to market (increasing loan loss provisions were a bigger culprit). In each case, stock prices started falling before the banks took writedowns, implying that investors already knew something was fishy before the accountants did anything.

[...]


I suspect he's closer to being right than the bankers and congressmen who were pushing this change.

Cheers,
Scott.
Expand Edited by Another Scott April 3, 2009, 08:05:41 AM EDT
New What he's not considering
is the "run on the bank" herd mentality...

Simple question..without googling...how much money did BOA lose last year?

Save you the time...they didn't lose anything. They earned $4 Billion dollars net profit. Sure it was down from 14B...but hey, who's counting.

As it stands, BOA looks to be profitable again starting q1.

What the mark to market problem created was a crisis of confidence, fueled by a whole raft of people that were in full out panic mode.

This is what a run on a bank is...rumor starts about something...(true or not) and people start pulling real assets from the bank, more hear this, more come...it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
I will choose a path that's clear. I will choose freewill.
New I can play too: How much money did GM lose the last n yrs?
Accounting rules for multinationals are a big hairy mess. They can play with the numbers, even without the M2M changes.

GM had to write off $xxB due to changes in accounting rules. I guess if they didn't have to do that, they'd still be profitable, huh.

BOA is a dead man walking, while Citi is a corpse.

I'm no expert on this stuff, but a quick glance at http://www.federalre...eases/h8/Current/ gives an indication that something is terribly wrong with the existing accounting:

Feb 2008 US Commercial Banks (Seasonally Adjusted):
Total Assets: $11,050.3 B
Total Liabilities: $9,859.5 B
Net: $1,190.8 B

Feb 2009 US Commercial Banks (Seasonally Adjusted):
Total Assets: $12,051.1 B
Total Liabilities: $10,831.1 B
Net: $1,219.9 B

I don't know how the TARP funds figure into this, but these numbers are clearly not a true reflection of the state of the US commercial banks.

We'll see if BOA announces a profit, and whether the market believes them, soon enough.

As for a run on the bank, sure that can happen and it can happen quickly. With the Fed guaranteeing everything, that's not very likely though. And presumably once the Stress Test results are announced, there will be a methodology in place to restructure the corpses.

Cheers,
Scott.
New How do you know this?
Because the press is TELLING you that the banks are failing.

What the banks are asking for is the ability to apply a bit more logic to the valuation of their assets than the blind panic of the market..which you seem to be participating in.

One of the principle necessities of the banking system (not just ours) is confidence. Its how the money multiplier works. Banks take everyone's assets, have a certain retention limit, and loan out the rest. So, if 10 people run on the bank...they are only holding enough hard asset to pay one of them back. That does NOT mean the system is broken. That means the system is working as intended.

What the mass writedown of assets did was create a liquidity crisis. Because they had less assets, they had no money to loan. Not loaning money created, in some cases, an inability for existing loans to be be paid. TARP funds are, IIUnderstandC being used to bolster assets in order to create that liquidity. Allowing assets to be valued in a more logical fashion than a panicked market will also help create more liquidity.
I will choose a path that's clear. I will choose freewill.
New There have been real losses, not just paper losses.
I don't have time to dig up links, but when houses that sold for $2M 2 years ago are now priced at $1M or less (cf. Jim the Realtor), then real losses have occurred. It's not just a M2M problem - those houses aren't ever going to be worth $2M again.

Paper built on the assumption that that home is always going to increase in value suffered a real loss. Banks have a lot of crap like that on their books, and changes in M2M isn't suddenly going to make it valuable.

We'll see how solid the major US banks are when the Stress Test results are made available....

Cheers,
Scott.
New Those home value losses don't belong to the banks.
they belong to the people.

the valuation of the investments was given aaa status based on the thought that home values always go up. The assets themselves are based upon the loans made to PEOPLE to buy those homes.

And yes, some of those houses will be worth 2M again. Some won't. The only impact that has on the paper in question is how it impacts the default rate.

And how much of that paper is actually left in banks hands.
I will choose a path that's clear. I will choose freewill.
New No, no and no
You've already argued that corporations can't pay taxes, because corporations are really the people who are shareholders. So you don't get to argue about what belongs to the banks. The banks are people, remember?

Second, a loan is how a bank invests its money. When I invest in a company and they lose money instead of making it, that loss belongs to me. So if a home that is collateral on a mortgage (investment) loses value, that investment has lost value. That belongs to the bank. "But the mortgage holder owes the bank that money!" So? A balance sheet should reflect what investments are actually worth, not what you think they're suppose to be worth.

Finally, "the only impact that has on the paper in question" is how much it will eventually return. You do realize that's the outcome of the default rate, don't you?
--

Drew
New In a fashion, one of your nos is correct
the banks are a portion of people. Home value (equity) is NOT part of the banking equation...its part of a persons net wealth. Not all of which goes to banks.

If I loan money against a collateral item, my return is NOT the collateral. Its the payments on the loan. I only lose based on the value of the collateral if the payer defaults. So the valuation should NOT be the valuation of the home...its the value of the future payments.

The RISK assigned to that investment is the default rate and that is where the valuation of the cbos is a problem. Because it is discounting these values far above even the most pessimistic default rates.


I will choose a path that's clear. I will choose freewill.
New Bloomberg: GS says FASB won't help bank stocks.
http://www.bloomberg...WVSFa8&refer=home

April 3 (Bloomberg) -- The relaxation of fair-value accounting rules won’t prevent bank shares from falling because growth in bad loans is accelerating, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“Our core view is that banks will not bottom until underperforming asset growth decelerates,” Richard Ramsden, a New York-based analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a report today. “Loans are going bad faster than banks earn money.”

[...]

U.S. regulators may force Bank of America, Citigroup and at least a dozen of the nation’s biggest financial institutions to write down as much as $1 trillion in loans, twice what they’ve already recorded, based on Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. auction data compiled by Bloomberg.

[...]


(Emphasis added.)

Cheers,
Scott.
     Companies get more leway in Mark to Market rules - (jay) - (18)
         Re: Companies get more leway in Mark to Market rules - (drook) - (7)
             that part doesnt change - (boxley)
             Net vs Gross - (jay) - (5)
                 Yup, missed the word "net" in there - (drook) - (4)
                     That happens in any technical field - (jay) - (3)
                         Exactly the point I was trying to make - (drook) - (2)
                             Except for the fact that its pretty much dead wrong - (beepster) - (1)
                                 Comedic exaggeration - (jay)
         This was absolutely necessary - (beepster) - (9)
             Kwak's take at BaselineScenario [tyop] - (Another Scott) - (8)
                 What he's not considering - (beepster) - (7)
                     I can play too: How much money did GM lose the last n yrs? - (Another Scott) - (5)
                         How do you know this? - (beepster) - (4)
                             There have been real losses, not just paper losses. - (Another Scott) - (3)
                                 Those home value losses don't belong to the banks. - (beepster) - (2)
                                     No, no and no - (drook) - (1)
                                         In a fashion, one of your nos is correct - (beepster)
                     Bloomberg: GS says FASB won't help bank stocks. - (Another Scott)

Diane's as fat can be... aye, Captain aye!
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