You folks in Texas - Keep an eye on Dean. (39 kB img)

Post #291,000 by Another Scott 8/16/07 9:03:38 PM 8/17/07 9:18:33 PM Reply	You folks in Texas - Keep an eye on Dean. (39 kB img) [edit:] Updated image. [link\|http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_5day.html#a_topad\|Latest]. [image\|http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200704_5day.gif\|0\|Hurricane Dean 5 day path\|480\|640] This storm might be a [link\|http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=751&tstamp=200708\|bad one]: Two storms in the historical record with a similar tracks and intensities to what we might expect for Dean in the Caribbean were Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004. Gilbert intensified to a Category 3 hurricane as it passed south of Haiti, and made a direct hit on Jamaica, passing the entire length of the island. Gilbert then began a remarkable rapid intensification spurt as it moved over the Cayman islands into the Western Caribbean, reaching an all-time record low pressure of 888 mb before it slammed into the Yucatan Peninsula. Ivan tracked a bit further south in the Caribbean, but was also a Category 5 storm after it passed Jamaica. Let's hope he stirs the atmosphere up, but doesn't do much damage. [edit:] Oh, and it may affect the [link\|http://www.kunstler.com/\|price] of a certain yellow liquid that we love to hate (and vice versa) - see the 8/16 Grunt. Cheers, Scott. Edited by Another Scott Aug. 16, 2007, 09:12:36 PM EDT Edited by Another Scott Aug. 17, 2007, 11:27:59 AM EDT Edited by Another Scott Aug. 17, 2007, 09:18:33 PM EDT Expand All History
Post #291,001 by imqwerky 8/16/07 9:08:54 PM Reply	All you down Houston way... hope you are faring well. Been watching how TS Erin caused flooding down there. Now Big Guy Dean is supposed to pack a whallop, although we sure need the respite from the heat. Batten down the hatches, yall! And thanks for keeping us in your prefrontal cortex, Scott :0) Smile, Amy
Post #291,002 by imqwerky 8/16/07 9:19:22 PM Reply	reply to edit Whew! For a minute there, I thought you were talking about tequila! Smile, Amy
Post #291,003 by Another Scott 8/16/07 9:22:00 PM Reply	:-D
Post #291,044 by jbrabeck 8/17/07 2:00:50 PM Reply	First thing I thought of was beer! A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. (Herm Albright)
Post #291,011 by Ashton 8/16/07 11:36:27 PM Reply	In the national spirit of, Next Quarter - quarter-month, that is - I shall indeed fill the tank at next opportunity, curtail plans to retrace the route of Easy Rider, (memorializing that First Vietnam War; Who Knew! this would become a series.) Luck, Texans - really. (except for Crawdad: so. much. blood.) Could 100" of rain directed right-There >><< wash away e'en one spot? Nope, but What a teaser for a growing-interest in Cosmic Justice, eh? * Peter Fonda on NPR today - new movie / new book ... Chilling vignette of a most-formatory Christian-Scientist father, off screen / while utterly normal in social situations. Cured any tendency for joining Orgs. of young Peter..
Post #291,035 by imqwerky 8/17/07 11:45:47 AM Reply	Just a thought I was looking over the computer models for Hurricane Dean and wondered if they combined the 5 models and averaged them what the path might look like. I'm sure I'm not the first person to suggest that. Smile, Amy
Post #291,036 by Another Scott 8/17/07 11:56:24 AM Reply	Here ya go. [link\|http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html\|Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts for Dean] at Weather Underground. The trouble with taking averages is that some of the paths may be much more likely than others based on previous storms. Apparently a lot will depend on how things are when/if it enters the Gulf of Mexico. There's a neat little animated model [link\|http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad\|here]. Cheers, Scott.
Post #291,037 by imqwerky 8/17/07 12:06:37 PM Reply	Those are the ones I was looking at...it occurred to me that blending/averaging the data from those 5 models might give a more accurate picture. But I suppose there are so many variables that even the slightest variation can change the course of the storm. Smile, Amy
Post #291,063 by Another Scott 8/17/07 9:15:11 PM Reply	You'll like this article. [link\|http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=753&tstamp=200708\|Wunderblog]: We're fairly confident of the 1-2 day forecast, which has Dean headed west to west-northwest over the Central Caribbean, very close to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, then into the Western Caribbean. After that, things become murkier. The latest 12Z runs of the NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS, and HWRF computer models all show Dean hitting the Yucatan Peninsula, and continuing on into the Gulf of Mexico towards a second landfall near or south of the Texas border. The HWRF run is slower, and does not take Dean to the coast at the end of its forecast period. The big outlier is the GFDL model, which now takes Dean northwest into central Louisiana. Which model is correct? The problem is that each model has a different solution for the behavior of an upper-level low pressure system expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Which model should we trust? [...] Cheers, Scott.
Post #291,069 by imqwerky 8/18/07 12:31:45 AM Reply	Scott, You totally rock That's what I was looking for. Thanks! Smile, Amy
Post #291,070 by bepatient 8/18/07 1:34:17 AM Reply	Be happy not to be in Jamaica It isn't looking pretty. Likely (near definite) to hit Cat5 with sustained 150+ winds right before a head on pass. Too much of today's music is fashionable crap dressed as artistry._{Adrian Belew}

Welcome to IWETHEY!