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New Um, their OS releases have almost always been late too.
I agree with his conclusion that MS is beyond its peak and in decline, but I don't think he presents very strong evidence.

Windows 3.0 was years late. Windows 3.1 was late.

Windows 4.0/95 was years late.

Windows NT was years late.

Windows XP SP2 was late.

Now Longhorn's late.

And we're still waiting for Cairo....

It's not just MS's applications that it has trouble getting out the door when originally promised.

But they are in decline. They have almost no presence in cellular phones or TV set-top boxes. They don't dominate on-line consumer and small-business financials over Quicken. MSN hasn't crushed AOL. MSNBC hasn't crushed CNN. XBox hasn't crushed Sony's PlayStation 2. The PDA market has tanked. Tablet PC has been a fiasco. The MediaCenter PC hasn't taken off. Apple dominates the on-line music business. Java is still very important. MS killed Passport recently. Etc.

Potential partners are very suspicious of MS. Who would trust them?

People who were investing in MS because the stock doubled every year left long ago. MS still has their monopoly profits from Office and Windows, for a while. Linux and free software are making a dent there. But what comes next for them? Where's their big growth market? They haven't found it yet. They'll keep throwing money around like it's going out of style, and they'll have some hits once in a while (mainly by buying successful products and companies from elsewhere). But it's hard to imagine them ever having a franchise like Windows again - in large part because they're a proven monopolist so they can't have things like per-processor contacts again.

My $0.02.

Cheers,
Scott.
New DOS 5.0 was late.
Remember the crapola that was DOS 4?


Peter
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New But they blamed IBM for that. Always IBM's fault, you know.
     RIP MS? - (tuberculosis) - (25)
         Um, their OS releases have almost always been late too. - (Another Scott) - (2)
             DOS 5.0 was late. - (pwhysall) - (1)
                 But they blamed IBM for that. Always IBM's fault, you know. -NT - (Another Scott)
         Read the Innovator's Dilemma + Solution - (ben_tilly)
         Hyperbole. - (mmoffitt) - (20)
             Don't think so - (tuberculosis) - (19)
                 Got stats for that? - (pwhysall) - (17)
                     check these - (andread)
                     different numbers from different places - (SpiceWare)
                     I have a site that shows greater penetration... (not pR0n) - (folkert) - (11)
                         Oh. THAT place. - (imric) - (1)
                             Nope, not a single one of those listed are SFW. -NT - (folkert)
                         Interesting... So, the USAF has a facility at something... - (CRConrad) - (8)
                             off by a few states.. - (Steve Lowe) - (1)
                                 Ah, duh! Note to self (not K): Forks != Rapids. Thx, Steve. -NT - (CRConrad)
                             I work at this location. - (folkert) - (4)
                                 Coordinates acquired, target locked, fire at will -NT - (tuberculosis) - (3)
                                     I am going to tell... - (folkert) - (2)
                                         You keep your willie - (tuberculosis) - (1)
                                             No... not that one! - (folkert)
                             That's me lurking about -NT - (Steven A S)
                     Those stats may be depressed too - (Steven A S) - (1)
                         And besides that - (drewk)
                     Me 2. -NT - (mmoffitt)
                 So, if 70% is the limit. - (mmoffitt)

But she said things I just couldn't fathom. She was too deep. Seemed to be under a lot of pressure. Boy, could she drink. She drank like a... she drank a lot.
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