Rasmussen (tiny) poll says late deciders breaking for Bush.

[link|http://www.rasmussenreports.com/VoterDecisionTime.htm|Here]:

October 26, 2004--Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters made their final decision on their Presidential vote before the fall campaign season began. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 12% decided about a month ago, 9% a week ago, and 5% in the past few days.

[...]

The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.

Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.

This is contrary to the popular opinion that late deciders generally break for the challenger.

2% remain undecided, "many of whom may not vote."

FWIW.

I haven't sensed much desperation yet, but tomorrow morning may tell the tale. I still recall Carter's voice breaking when he was asked about the election when he was going to vote...

Cheers,
Scott.

Post #181,994 by Another Scott 11/1/04 12:32:54 PM Reply	Rasmussen (tiny) poll says late deciders breaking for Bush. [link\|http://www.rasmussenreports.com/VoterDecisionTime.htm\|Here]: October 26, 2004--Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters made their final decision on their Presidential vote before the fall campaign season began. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 12% decided about a month ago, 9% a week ago, and 5% in the past few days. [...] The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin. Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment. This is contrary to the popular opinion that late deciders generally break for the challenger. 2% remain undecided, "many of whom may not vote." FWIW. I haven't sensed much desperation yet, but tomorrow morning may tell the tale. I still recall Carter's voice breaking when he was asked about the election when he was going to vote... Cheers, Scott.
Post #181,998 by ben_tilly 11/1/04 12:58:52 PM Reply	Not a surprise for those watching electoral-vote After the debates, Bush's share of the vote climbed for a while. Those are people that this poll calls deciding late, who are part of the people deciding in the last month or so. Given that Bush climbed, most of those decisions were for Bush. But in the last 2 days Kerry's support has been spiking. That is the "late deciders" phenomena, and hopefully will continue to intensify tomorrow. That is the phenomena that people who weren't attracted to either candidate, when the time comes to hold their nose and vote, will vote against the guy whose stink they've had to live with longest. Cheers, Ben I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #181,999 by deSitter 11/1/04 1:01:11 PM Reply	Re: Not a surprise for those watching electoral-vote Don't pollers call mostly land lines? Cell phone people are (guessing big time) much more likely - say 60-40 - to vote for a progressive candidate. Any direct knowledge of methodology? -drl
Post #182,000 by pwhysall 11/1/04 1:03:49 PM Reply	An uninformed opinion I.E. mine. If you call mobile phones to contact your sample, you are automatically skewing your sample younger. This is OK, as long as you remember that younger people are typically very good at giving an opinion and somewhat less good at actually exercising that opinion at the ballot box. Peter [link\|http://www.debian.org\|Shill For Hire] [link\|http://www.kuro5hin.org\|There is no K5 Cabal] [link\|http://guildenstern.dyndns.org\|Home]
Post #182,002 by Another Scott 11/1/04 1:05:40 PM Reply	Yup. See #175649. Polling's a crapshoot this year.
Post #182,021 by Silverlock 11/1/04 2:06:49 PM Reply	Cell phone users- 57% Kerry, 27% Bush [link\|http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2004/Nov/1089264.htm\|link] ----------------------------------------- How do you convince a Washington Journalist that you're not slapping him in the face? Tell him you're not.
Post #182,008 by a6l6e6x 11/1/04 1:34:37 PM Reply	Bush is visiting 7 places today vs. typical 3 or 4. A sign of panic perhaps? Alex In politics, what begins in fear usually ends in folly. -- Samuel Taylor Coleridge, poet (1772-1834)
Post #182,011 by jb4 11/1/04 1:48:47 PM Reply	Make sure he waves good-bye to AF1... ...after he makes his last stop! jb4 shrub\ufffdbish (Am., from shrub* + rubbish, after the derisive name for America's 43 president; 2003) n. 1. a form of nonsensical political doubletalk wherein the speaker attempts to defend the indefensible by lying, obfuscation, or otherwise misstating the facts; GIBBERISH. 2. any of a collection of utterances from America's putative 43rd president. cf.* BULLSHIT
Post #182,017 by mmoffitt 11/1/04 2:01:37 PM Reply	That's funny. electoral-vote.com has Kerry 298 Bush 231. [link\|http://www.electoral-vote.com/\|http://www.electoral-vote.com/] bcnu, Mikem "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
Post #182,018 by ben_tilly 11/1/04 2:02:07 PM Reply	2 days ago Bush was ahead there I have come to believe that idealism without discipline is a quick road to disaster, while discipline without idealism is pointless. -- Aaron Ward (my brother)
Post #182,033 by mmoffitt 11/1/04 3:16:25 PM Reply	Let's just hope he isn't two days FROM now. ;-) bcnu, Mikem "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt." -Bertrand Russell
Post #182,020 by Another Scott 11/1/04 2:04:00 PM Reply	Their results bounce around a lot.

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