Re: Self feeding war frenzy
During the lead up to the Gulf war (and in fact the Panama invasion) I was in a position to be in and out of the US at regular intervals and was quite taken aback at the effect. Simply it was walking in and out of the US during both events.
The emotional frenzy was just so apparent. At that time I had no doubt that the govt was using the few press chanels available to prepare the country for the events they had planned.
This time it is a different sequence. The events have occured & the govt & press even if it wanted to, does not have to be the instrument of raising emotion. It seems to be much more spontanious.
This is war.
In order to wage war the people have to want it and be willing to pursue it. Arafat did this whipping up in Palestine after deciding that the Israelis just hadn't gone far enough (he badly miscalculated, but we are all caught up in the result).
The odd aspects of this kind of event is how it brings people together. Enemies suddenly can become friends so together they can face a larger more fearful enemy & you have to believe that the Bin Laden Islamic militant threat is as good a common enemy as any one could want to focus on.
It was an American Arab friend of mine from Texas who told me during the gulf war of an old Arab saying that more or less went like this.
Me against my brother, my brothers & I against our cousins, our cousins and I against the next village, the next village and us against ....
Well now we have Russia & US & Europe against 'evil-militant-terrorism' expect India & China to join the coalition although China will be more cautious and less militant.
The dogs of war are unleashed & the hysteria will consume many good people & ideals & dreams. The hope is that like the eternal phoenix, we will resurect ourselves from the ashes. This may seem very heavy comment but I haven't the *slightest* doubt about the path we are heading down & the out come.
The best hope scenario is that the coalition powers can include enough Islamic countries to prevent the 'enemy' draging them all in on the opposing side. Make no mistake about the events unfolding, the world as we know it is about to change in much the same way it did before & after both WW1 & WW2.
- Pakistan is between a rock and a hard place.
- Afghanistan is about to be tipped on its head yet again. Taliban are *dead meat*. Bin Laden isn't, his org can still survive him
- India may just grab the opportunity to settle historical scores and the insurrection in the himalyas with Pakistan plus remove their fear of Pakistan having nukes. India migh be tempted to wipe Pakistan out altogether if the prime minister of Pakistan makes one mis-step.
- Israel might use the situation to cat the balls of Palestinian militancy.
- Israel & west might also use the situation to smash hizbolla
- Phillipines might try to use the situation to eradicate islamic resistance in south
- Indonesia might use the situation to crush the aspirations of the Achenese
- Malaysia's Mahatir my grab the opportunity to cement a longer reign over Malaysia
- China may grab the opportunity to completely suppress their northern islamic rebellion
- Don't know what will happen to Iraq, but it won't be good - maybe Hussien is no real threat (I think he still is)
- Don't know what will happen in Albania & Balkans. I think the harm has already been done there & more or less tidied up.
- Don't know what the impact will be on Bosnia - they have a big debt of gratitude to nato & west, they might keep out of it.
The challenge is how to attack Islamic militancy without feeding it. It may turn out that with all the countries mentioned in the coalition, that the remainder of the Islamic world who can see the final outcome, are just too smart to get involved.
Doug Marker
