You guys are using the wrong criteria

Post #90,972 by bluke 3/24/03 3:05:26 AM Reply	You guys are using the wrong criteria Everyone here is thinking rationally in terms of military strategy etc. Saddam is thinking differently. From his perspective he won the first Gulf War as he stayed in power. He is trying to repeat that performance again. He knows that he cannot win militarily against the US whether he uses WMD or not. His only chance is to turn the war into a quagmire and get US and world public opinion against Bush so that Bush is forced to stop before deposing him. Agin, if Saddam stays in power under any circumstances he wins, this is his one and only goal. He could care less about his troops, civilians, etc. Given the above, the use of WMD does not serve his aims, if he uses WMD he loses any moral high ground that he had. The Arab world in general believes that the US is soft and is not willing to fight a ground war and take casualties. Saddam believes that he if he can cause some American casualties he will win. As soon as his back is really to the wall and he realizes that the US is not stopping no matter what, he will use his WMD. Remember the US still has not really engaged the Republican Guards around Baghdad.
Post #90,977 by dmarker 3/24/03 3:42:20 AM Reply	Wanna place a bet of this ??? - my $US100 agin yourn sez Saddam won't use WMD. just agree publicly and on honor we can agree to settle up after the battle of Baghdad. Now you can either anti up - or back down on your assesment, or admit you really aren't that sure that you would take the risk in the bet. I'm not beyond doubling up if you want. Cheers Doug Marker Spectres from our past: Beware the future when your children & theirs come after you for what you may have been willing to condone today - dsm 2003 Motivational: When performing activities, ask yourself if the person you most want to be would do, or say, it - dsm 2003
Post #90,980 by bluke 3/24/03 4:00:11 AM Reply	No deal for a simple reason By the time he decides to use them he may be unable, Saddam is in a catch-22 situation, he doesn't want to use them too early but he if he waits too long he may lose his chance. Also, he may give the order and his commanders won't fulfill the order if they see that he is going down in flames.
Post #91,001 by Brandioch 3/24/03 9:26:33 AM Reply	So Saddam will not use "WMD's"..... even when his life is in danger...... until he's convinced he has no other way out? At which point will he be convinced of this? When the tanks are hammering his palace? It's a little late to use it then. From all the EXCUSES you people are posting about why he is NOT using them, you seem to be making the case that, even if he did have them, he is NO THREAT TO ANY OTHER COUNTRY. The only proof is prediction.
Post #91,004 by bluke 3/24/03 9:50:22 AM Reply	What don't you understand ... there is a cost/benefit for every action. Until Saddam believes that the benefit of using WMD outweighs the cost he won't use them. Until now the cost has outweighed the benefit. Besides, for all we know Saddam could be dead, according to reports in Israeli newspapers (as well as British sources) the video today was a prepared tape, which if true probably means that Saddam is either injured or dead and therefore could obviously not use his WMD.
Post #91,017 by rcareaga 3/24/03 10:31:30 AM Reply	backtracking like all getout --sorry, Doug, no easy hundred for you. cordially, "Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
Post #91,019 by cybermace5 3/24/03 10:33:50 AM Reply	Re: backtracking like all getout [link\|http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101030331-435907,00.html\|http://www.time.com/...31-435907,00.html]
Post #91,155 by dmarker 3/24/03 6:05:25 PM Reply	Not sure what that has to do with offer odf bet ??? Are you wanting to take up the bet ??? - if so please do so publicly here and I will acknowledge. Same rules as for Mr Luke. Thanks Doug Spectres from our past: Beware the future when your children & theirs come after you for what you may have been willing to condone today - dsm 2003 Motivational: When performing activities, ask yourself if the person you most want to be would do, or say, it - dsm 2003
Post #91,018 by Brandioch 3/24/03 10:33:08 AM Reply	That was the whole point. I say that he doesn't have them and THAT is the reason that he hasn't used them. You claim that he has them, but... Until Saddam believes that the benefit of using WMD outweighs the cost he won't use them. So, instead of being the nasty, evil dictator we were told he was.... he can be influenced by world opinion to NOT use his weapons against another country..... even when that other country is invading his country..... intent upon killing him and overthrowing his government.... As I have said before, if the positions were reversed, Bush would be tossing nukes left and right. An invading country.... intent upon overthrowing your government... and killing you..... and you STILL refuse to use nuke/chem/bio weapons. Yet, somehow, this guy is a THREAT to the US?
Post #91,164 by dmarker 3/24/03 6:47:51 PM Reply	Aint it amazing - call these cats bluff & they meow loudly I wonder if cyber whoever (is it Marlowe ??? - anyone else wondered ???) will take up the offer. Cheers Doug PS one of the gutless aspects of Marlowe's false identity, is that if he reaches a point where he is so reviled & humiliated (self inflicted), he only has to switch to a new login and can hide from his own mess. A most wonderful form of denial & cop-out, and we can never be quite sure. Spectres from our past: Beware the future when your children & theirs come after you for what you may have been willing to condone today - dsm 2003 Motivational: When performing activities, ask yourself if the person you most want to be would do, or say, it - dsm 2003
Post #91,167 by cybermace5 3/24/03 7:02:38 PM Reply	Re: Aint it amazing - call these cats bluff & they meow loud It's pretty amusing to watch you spout your assumptions as fact, when right in front of me is a perfect example of your ever so peerless perception.
Post #91,311 by dmarker 3/25/03 7:17:51 AM Reply	So is that a take up of the bet or another meow ? Spectres from our past: Beware the future when your children & theirs come after you for what you may have been willing to condone today - dsm 2003 Motivational: When performing activities, ask yourself if the person you most want to be would do, or say, it - dsm 2003
Post #91,342 by cybermace5 3/25/03 10:11:17 AM Reply	Re: So is that a take up of the bet or another meow ? I would take the bet, if you can prove to me that Saddam is actually still alive and in command. Since the entire reason for striking on Wednesday was a red-hot tip on Saddam's location, I'm not convinced he's around to give the order. Additionally our military's actions have been centered around preventing the use of WMD, through destroying the units that intelligence has determined capable of deploying them. I would hope the military succeeds in preventing the use of WMD. If WMD are indeed used, that is evidence of a gross mistake in our military's planning and execution.
Post #91,378 by rcareaga 3/25/03 12:22:46 PM Reply	Easy money Take the bet, Doug! Yesterday (#91005) the kid asserted that S.H. was toast and that we were fighting a spool of videotape based on arguments like this: For example, he praised his brave soldiers in Basra. Interestingly, the soldiers stationed there all surrendered immediately, from the commander on down. The commander had not surrendered. The soldiers still fought, still fight. It's candy from a baby, but an easy hundred bucks. Go for it! cordially, "Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."
Post #91,413 by cybermace5 3/25/03 2:09:01 PM Reply	Re: Easy money Mmmmhmmm...I seem to recall a lot of other people thought the same thing when it was being widely reported through all the news agencies, then turned out to be an impostor Iraqi.
Post #91,534 by dmarker 3/25/03 7:30:13 PM 3/25/03 9:16:53 PM Reply	The diff between those who analyse & those who swallow without the ability to question or test. As a simple comment, how do you determine what is propaganda & what is probable ? You do give the appearance of someone who believes evry word you are told until it is proved wrong. There are people here who question what is being said & assign a probability to it. I would be thrilled for example if the Basra uprising were proven to be fact & happening but based on the way & circumstances it was reported & the clear need for admin to deflect growing concerns, I have assigned it to propganda until better evidence is presented. Please understand that most of us all want the same thing but there are some who want the result to be both honorable and true. Starting wars is dangerous, lying about why it was started & how it is going would be evil if proven to be the case & unfortunaeltly Rummy has been caught out a bit. I sure don't believe what the Iraqis say or convey but I do analyse it for any probability of being true/false just as I do our pronouncements. Right at the moment I find Rummy to be like 'hard-tack' to try & eat. Cheers Doug Marker Spectres from our past: Beware the future when your children & theirs come after you for what you may have been willing to condone today - dsm 2003 Motivational: When performing activities, ask yourself if the person you most want to be would do, or say, it - dsm 2003 Edited by dmarker March 25, 2003, 09:16:53 PM EST Expand All History
Post #91,589 by deSitter 3/25/03 9:22:02 PM 3/25/03 9:22:31 PM Reply	gawd can't resist One is $75 an hour - the other is an hour for $75. -drl Edited by deSitter March 25, 2003, 09:22:31 PM EST Expand All History
Post #91,299 by bluke 3/25/03 3:41:17 AM Reply	How effective would Chemical weapons be against US troops? Again it all comes down to cost/benefit ratio. Chemical weapons are very effective against unprotected civilians or poorly protected troops like the Iranians in the 1980's. Using them against well protected US troops is a different story. On the other hand if they are used, Saddam loses world opinion.
Post #91,302 by Ashton 3/25/03 4:59:01 AM 3/25/03 5:09:40 AM Reply	Desert heat is coming Imagine your mobility at a suit-temp of 135\ufffd F. (57 C) For just one little detail. Fix typo Edited by Ashton March 25, 2003, 05:09:40 AM EST Expand All History
Post #91,303 by bluke 3/25/03 5:53:15 AM Reply	Not for at least a few weeks If the threat of chemical weapons is not dealt with in the next week or 2 the US has bigger problems. In fact, in Israel today it might snow in Jerusalem
Post #91,305 by orion 3/25/03 6:27:26 AM Reply	Tossing nukes left and right no he wouldn't, then there wouldn't be a USA to save anymore, just a nuclear wasteland. Which is why you don't toss nukes on your native soil. Saddam didn't have a chance to put his payloads into those extended-range SCUDs, which go beyond the 93 mile mark set by resolution 678. "Bill gates cannot guarantee Windows, so how are you going to guarantee my safety?" -John Crichton to the Emperor of the Scarrans on [link\|http://www.farscape.com\|FarScape]
Post #91,314 by bluke 3/25/03 7:57:37 AM Reply	No comparison between nukes and chemical weapons There is no defense against a nuclear weapon, period, if a nuke is dropped nearby you are dead. Chemical weapons on the hand are easily defenced and are nowhere near as effective.
Post #91,332 by Brandioch 3/25/03 9:32:33 AM Reply	The only proof is prediction. Saddam didn't have a chance to put his payloads into those extended-range SCUDs, which go beyond the 93 mile mark set by resolution 678. Why didn't he? He didn't know about the US build-up? It was on CNN. Everyone else in the WORLD knew about it. He didn't know when we'd strike? Bush gave him 48 hours. The entire WORLD heard that. And so forth. Yet Saddam is sooooo smart that he can hide those production facilities but sooooooo stupid that he can't watch CNN. You see, I can easily be convinced that I was wrong. All Saddam has to do is use a nuke/chem/bio weapon. You, on the other hand, will NEVER be wrong. Because YOU will ALWAYS try to excuse your errors. Then you'll try to excuse the Iraqi children that have died because of your support for a war based upon lies. But that's okay. They probably wanted to be killed.
Post #91,443 by rcareaga 3/25/03 3:12:03 PM Reply	Re: Tossing nukes left and right Norman, please don't interrupt when the grownups are talking. cordially, "Die Welt ist alles, was der Fall ist."

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