Post #72,504
1/4/03 3:23:37 PM
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Cringely's 2003 Predictions.
[link|http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20030102.html|Here].
1. "HP is toast." I agree.
2. "Dell gets bigger and bigger." I agree, for the very near term. But I don't see how Dell can continue to dominate (in the medium-long term) as long as it is wedded to MS. Dell can't long compete with $200 boxes from WalMart, IMHO. But for this year, they're certainly going to continue to put pressure on the other PC vendors.
There are some other interesting things his list.
It seems unlikely to me, though, that (#5) China will standarize on MIPS. It just seems so out there... Any thoughts, Doug?
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #72,506
1/4/03 3:42:34 PM
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Re: Cringely's 2003 Predictions.
HP is toast - unless they rid themselves of their CEO and get back to HP basics.
When evaluating personal laser printers for people, I didn't even think of HP - now that is sad.
Someone should write a long article about how these dumbass CEOs have ruined one great company after another. One thing I will say about Gerstner - at least he didn't destroy the boat he was riding in.
-drl
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Post #72,516
1/4/03 4:15:51 PM
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What are your recommendations for personal laser printers?
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Post #72,559
1/4/03 7:19:00 PM
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Brother, Lexmark
The Brother series (e.g. HL-1440) take plain old SIMMs. They are solidly built, very compact, and fast. They produce beautiful output (Canon print engine) with excellent B&W graphics. The manual sheet feeder is rather aggressive and balks at thin paper, but is fine for envelopes and transparencies. This is the best personal laser I've seen.
-drl
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Post #72,560
1/4/03 7:26:47 PM
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they are ALL canon print engines arnt they?
will work for cash and other incentives [link|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html|skill set]
You think that you can trust the government to look after your rights? ask an Indian
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Post #72,570
1/4/03 8:12:28 PM
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Lexmark, I don't think so
I think they inherited their best hardware from the IBM days. For example, IIRC they were the first to make a laser with true 1200 dpi resolution.
-drl
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Post #72,574
1/4/03 8:29:09 PM
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No
Lexmark engines are not related to Canon in any way. They build their own.
The Lexmark Optra E was nearly impossible to service - a Chinese puzzle for sure, but they learned a lot, and the Optra 310/320 series is very easy to service. I haven't worked on their larger models because I haven's sold many.
I am highly prejudiced against Hewlett Packard, the only company that ever forced me to buy product on the gray market.
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #72,593
1/4/03 11:12:33 PM
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HP
It's just tragic - HP was the definition of well-made and innovative equipment. I have my old HP-71B right here, on the 10th or so set of 4AAA batteries since 1985 when I bought it. It has an amazingly accurate clock :) I wish I could find a pack of magnetic cards to record the shit that's been in there for decades. It's sort of funny, it will probably outlive me by no more than the life of a set of AAA batteries. Once I saw something small tumbling end over end in my M/C mirror - it was my 71B - fell off from operator error. Not a scratch on it, but it did ruin the finish of the original leather case, which was no longer shipping. That was a bummer. For some reason, I attached a Deadhead sticker to the extremely well used HP quick reference card, with the formula for LSD printed inside it.
It still amazes me that this little machine has a FORTH, a filesystem, an assembler, and a 4GL HP-BASIC, a nice one - all in 17k of (nibble-oriented, 34Knibs) RAM.
-drl
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Post #72,610
1/5/03 12:48:02 AM
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HP-65
I recall the day it came! Teeny mag cards (same as in 71 or were those larger?) Hmmm I might.. have a one or two about - mention if you want me to try to find. I think it had a Lunar Lander game, too. :-)
Leaving it on the desk running - as it looked for primes: think one was ~1 x 10E10 + 3? 4? People would come by, ask - how's it doing? But I believe the HP-35, the world's first scientific calculator, is the one which belongs in a glass case in the Library of Congress..
Yes that HP bears no remote resemblance to the current Billy-mold Pee Cee commodity hawkers of '02. HP == repackagers of tank-cars full of ink in 20\ufffd plastic pods to rip-off at $30, as long as the sheep will pay that.
As the US leaves the "commodity work" of science, techno - to overseas lo bidders, can [that Stupid Name] 'Agilent' long survive? making $30K digital scopes which are blind most of the sample-time, calculating. So who can afford $30-50K, except a few Corps trying to sell an even more expensive ink-jet refill (type thing), next?
My Hp 105A Quartz Oscillator (sec. time std., checked with a Rb std. periodically) has been ON here, for last 3+ years, probably 10 before that. It's crystal has aged to point of a predictable drift rate; improving on factory spec. I think.. this was still in HP catalog for $11K a few years ago, a vast sum even incl. inflation - compared to orig. pricing.
There's not One Item in Agilent catalog I could remotely afford to buy (well, maybe a spare probe clip).
Tektronix dismantled their world-class CRT-fab and much else, years ago - so they are basically in the digital-scope 'virtually-data' field too, while real engineers lovingly protect their 25+ yo fast scopes, for which there are NO replacements. (Save one Japanese Kikusui? 550 MHz scope using an image tube similar to Tek's now discontinued technology of yore - if that is still available)
So it ain't just HP - - it's the USA that has become Babbitt. A nation of marketing droids, from top to bottom.
Ashton
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Post #72,623
1/5/03 2:11:04 AM
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Re: HP-65
No, the 65 and 67 used unformatted cards - the card reader would draw the cards through at a fixed speed making formatting unnecessary. In contrast the 71B and 75 cards were preformatted, so they could be pulled by hand, saving the power expense of a motor. They were also much larger - about 10 inches long. They came in a long plastic tube.
-drl
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Post #72,561
1/4/03 7:32:47 PM
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We have a couple of those. Thanks.
We have Brother 1440's already. They do seem to be reliable.
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Post #72,567
1/4/03 8:04:17 PM
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Personally,
..I like the Lexmarks because they produce sharper text IMO - it's a very subjective thing. They don't seem as solidly built (unlike their inkjets, which are tanks). Still it's a company I'd be happy to do business with.
-drl
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Post #72,883
1/6/03 10:14:30 AM
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Brother HL-1440
In yesterday's Sunday newspaper ad from Office Depot, this printer is undergoing a closeout sale. Price was $199.99 if I remember correctly.
Wife won't let me get one to replace my HP 4L printer still using the original toner cartridge (I don't print a whole lot now that resumes get emailed), but I sure do want one.
lincoln
"Four score and seven years ago, I had a better sig"
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Post #72,571
1/4/03 8:17:23 PM
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Doesn't matter.
If HP went the Capellas route, and tried to be a Dell, they'd fail badly. Only Dell can be Dell - HP has far too many engineers to survive in that market. Building a solid reseller channel may keep their PC business alive, but they've been screwing that up badly too.
Cringly is wrong about resellers all being Chapter-11. Only those that depend on box sales are there. Those that sell PCs as part of their service offerings are doing fine.
The "Uniform Windows Experience" will insure the PC business never comes back strong, but HP may survive as a PC builder, along with Dell, IBM, "White Box" and I expect Microsoft (you didn't think XBox was going to be the end of it did you?).
"White Box" already has nearly half the market worldwide. IBM will keep making PCs as part of their comprehensive offerings. That's what they invented it for in the first place, so they've just returned to the original plan. Microsoft will probably build PCs to control entertainment delivery.
Dell, on the other hand, is having its own problems. It's seeing the same limits to growth Microsoft is seeing, and is branching out into all kinds of businesses it doesn't know a lot about.
Meanwhile, Dell's once legendary support is fading fast, probably for good. Businesses are simply canning Dell's warranty and calling in a local outfit for survice and repair - It costs a lot less than 6 hours on the phone without resolution.
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #72,586
1/4/03 10:47:08 PM
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Re: Doesn't matter.
Microsoft and Dell are piggybacking ads during the NFL prime-time wildcard game tonight on ABC. For some reason, this seems significant.
-drl
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Post #72,627
1/5/03 3:10:16 AM
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Dell has always sucked up to Microsoft and Intel . .
. . to make sure he got a good supply of the latest versions of everything before anyone else could get any at all.
On the other hand, Microsoft sees Dell as the major shipper of its only two profitable products (until Microsoft has its own branded PCs to sell).
The largest PC brand is "White Box", with nearly half the desktop market worldwide and a growing server share, but "White Box" brand is unrully, very difficult to negotiate with, doesn't pay for Superbowl advertising, and really would rather not ship Microsoft products at all if they didn't have to.
Yes, I expect Microsoft will have its own PC brand, targeted at the home market, for best control of content delivery and digital rights management. First XBox, then the "Home Gateway" server (shipping soon), next the PC. Dell will not be pleased.
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #72,613
1/5/03 12:55:37 AM
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HP products are still good
I have an HP Laserjet II, but it gives me a "50 Service" error. I suspect the power supply or fuser, but I haven't had the money to get it fixed. I have a 694C Deskjet, which ran fine for over 5 years now. It just had a grinding problem, but it seems to have fixed itself after I said a prayer to God about helping me fix the printer. So God listened to me, and he likes HP printers. :)
But I do agree about management, HP/Compaq needs to shake up a bit and get things in order, or else Dell and Gateway will eat their lunch.
For an Alternative Nearly To Imitate IWETHEY please visit [link|http://pub75.ezboard.com/bantiiwethey|the ANTIIWETHEY Board]
providing an alternative to IWETHEY since December 2002
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Post #72,663
1/5/03 12:00:14 PM
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Re: Cringely's 2003 Predictions
> Someone should write a long article about how these dumbass CEOs have ruined one great company after another. One thing I will say about Gerstner - at least he didn't destroy the boat he was riding in.
Agree with you re: Gerstner. He actually did quite a bit to revitalize the company. That is more than can be said of many CEOs. In terms of HP, it may not necessarily need a CEO switch as much as it (and Dell and others) need to pursue different strategies. The same ol' song book ain't gonna cut it anymore.
-slugbug
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Post #72,710
1/5/03 3:35:30 PM
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I think that HP needs a change of CEO
She may not be their only problem. But that doesn't mean that she isn't a problem.
Book recommend: [link|http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/isbninquiry.asp?isbn=0066620996|Good to Great]. It has a lot to say about when companies turn around. And one thing that they consistently found is that big lasting turnarounds don't happen with celebrity CEOs.
Demonstration in this case - the Compaq merger was, I would be, largely about her ego. She wanted to run a bigger company. Was it a good move for either HP or Compaq though? How many more moves like that can HP afford?
Cheers,
Ben
"Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly."
- [link|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html|Walter Mead]
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Post #72,721
1/5/03 3:59:59 PM
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Complete Change of Attitude
HP equipment once was expensive, but you knew it would not break, would not be full of operating bugs - above all, well built and reliable. Now, we just had a multifunction HP device fail badly. A 10 cent part had ruined the paper feeding. It's not worth it to get it repaired. This is not the HP I remember. The entire thing seemed flimsy. When the HP 4 lasers came out, I remember thinking how flimsy it seemed in comparison to all the HP equipment I knew. It was a good printer as it developed, but it was the start of a bad trend of sacrificing the traditional HP durability for an infinitesimal profit margin. People had so much confidence in HP lasers from the III series that they would have been happy to pay for the traditional overengineering.
Right after came the HP 5 personal laser, the real beginning of the end for their reputation.
-drl
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Post #72,742
1/5/03 6:14:49 PM
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Sudden change of market conditions.
Hewlett-Packard used Canon laser engines, but they were first to market and promoted the LaserJet, LaserJet II and LaserJet III skillfully, dominating the market.
Canon also aggressively sold laser printers in the U.S., and destroyed the reputation of non-HP lasers. By contract, Canon was forbidden to sell an HP compatible printer. All other manufacturers were HP compatible, but enough people bought Canons and had severe driver problems, few would buy non-HP printers. Even Panasonic had a hell of a time getting any market share for their dual tray 5051, which was a very fine machine at an excellent price.
Then, Canon came out with the faster 600-dot engine later used in the LaserJet IV, and they went to Hewlett-Packard and told them. "We're going to be using this engine, and we're going to sell this engine to anyone else who wants it, but, unless you let us off this compatibility issue, we won't sell it to you."
Hewlett-Packard dropped the compatibility issue, and got the 600-dot engine, but they realized that without Canon out their spoiling the compatible market, they were now going to have to be price competitive. They designed accordingly.
Could they have sold a heftier printer at a higher price? Yes, but not if they wanted to be the volume leader, and that's what they wanted to be.
[link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #72,761
1/5/03 6:58:11 PM
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That's fascinating.
It also explains why the Laserjet II and III printers were such solid prices of kit and the IV was barely above trash. I'd wondered why that had occurred.
Wade.
Microsoft are clearly boiling the frogs.
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Post #72,750
1/5/03 6:30:17 PM
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Hewlett-Packard and Compaq needed the merger.
If they were going to stay in the PC business, both desperately needed to eliminate a major competitor before they were bashed to death by Dell and a stagnent market while fighting each other tooth and nail. Yes, it was traumatic, yes, the changes have confused everyone, but the PC business would be down anyway - the merger didn't cause that. Further, the PC business isn't coming back. The PC market for major brand names is now neatly devided: - Dell for the direct market (but trying to enter the reseller market with unbranded machines).
- IBM for their own integration needs and for a few large VARs.
- HP for the reseller market (but with heavy competition from "White Box" PCs)
Capellas, with his "do it like Dell" approach was doomed. Only Dell can be Dell. The reseller market is very large (or Dell wouldn't be trying to get into it), and HP is now trying to undo the damage done before Capellas' departure. [link|http://www.aaxnet.com|AAx]
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Post #72,537
1/4/03 5:44:13 PM
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Re: Cringely's 2003 Predictions.
Quite a few of his predictions are pretty obvious. But some are intersting.
2. Dell may get bigger this year, but their best years are behind them. Their alligence to MS will prevent them from moving into new markets and their reputation for quality is fading fast.
5. Seemingly out there, but China has been doing MIP design internally for some time. They are begining to design and produce some cheap middle-low end chips for their own use, which are based on MIPs not Intel. What I see as interesting here is what happens in Korea, Taiwan and the other high tech assembly countries if China does go MIPs.
6. Intersting, and this one I doubt. Intel has a lot of pride and power. They will fight this with everything they have, while MS doesn't have the kind of leverage over Intel it once did. I expect to see Intel make some Linux moves this year as part of this contest.
Jay
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Post #72,568
1/4/03 8:05:30 PM
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Intel was a core founding financial backer of RedHat
So Intel has a solid history of supporting Linux.
In his recent book Lou Gerstner always spoke glowingly and highly of Intel's Andy Gove - a fierce but highly respected competitor who took out IBM/Motorla's PPC initiative by fair competitive means.
(Lou also mentioned Gates but from his first words about the man it is very clear he is trying to disguise his contempt
-- he mentioned how his 1st meeting with gates was withing his 1st days at IBM & how it had been clearly agreed that none of it would be discussed with the press but that within 2 days all the deatils of their talk, known only to the 2 of them, had appeared in print. He also said the meeting was pretty much one-way with Gates telling Gerstner how the OS was now MS's & for IBM to dump OS/2
-- Gerstner also refers to Scott McNealy as being engaging & entertaining
-- he also stated that IT had its own three-ring circus: McNealy, Ellison & Gates. He said that had he shot his mouth off in the same way that three did (often about non-existant technology) he would have had IBM's lawyers & board down his neck instantly)
Cheers Doug
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Post #72,564
1/4/03 7:53:31 PM
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Re: Cringely's 2003 Predictions.
Good item Scott2
"Meanwhile, China, which will eventually be the largest computer market on earth, will standardize on MIPS processors and Linux, much to the dismay of both Sun and Intel. This bodes well, by the way, for AMD with its new MIPS-based Systems-on-Chip that will be the major component in many of those el cheapo Chinese computers. "
I really can't be sure re this one.
Having been part of IBM/Motorola's effort to bypass Intel with the PowerPC range of processors, I find it hard to believe that anyone attempting it yet again, could succeed when the CHRP (with Taiwanese backing) failed so dismally, and yet the architecture was vastly superior to Intels (PPC handled bi-endian data, had a superior interupt handling arch, was readily scalable to 64+ bits, ran a multi personality OS, etc etc). Who ever tries in China would be isolating themselves no matter how big their potential market (I noted C's other comment "China, which will eventually be the largest computer market on earth" - I concur, first PCs then larger systems).
So my reason for wondering how a mips based chip could taken on the Intel installed & compatible base, is that it would isolate that market & quarantine it to China (perhaps the third world too if price is their only way to participate).
It balance this is a hard one to call but I would call it a lose for Cringley in 2004.
Cheers
Doug
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