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New Cosmological Point-Counterpoint
Here are two papers by two astrophysicists with diametrically opposed opinions of cosmology - neither contains a single equation and both points of view are powerfully and directly expressed.

What's your opinion?

[link|http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0009020|The Case Against Cosmology] by MJ Disney (sic)
[link|http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0107303|The Case For Cosmology] by Milan Cirkovic
New Weee-eeell....
Disney has a number of valid points about some current cosmological theories, and the fact that they aren't firmly supported by data, and are largely unverifiable by experiment.

I DO believe that cosmology has it's place as a science; but it IS a nascent one.

Imric's Tips for Living
  • Paranoia Is a Survival Trait
  • Pessimists are never disappointed - but sometimes, if they are very lucky, they can be pleasantly surprised...
  • Even though everyone is out to get you, it doesn't matter unless you let them win.
New I agree with Disney
The loftiness of your goals, the quantity and seriousness of your papers, and the precision of your speculations don't make you into a science. While there are parts of cosmology that belong within the bounds of science, I personally consider much of the topic to be educated guesses without any immediate prospect of being tested.

Further than that, I absolutely agree with the idea that we should not be spending tremendous amounts of research dollars on cosmology. While it may come as a shock to people who think of themselves as pinnacle of scientific research, there are many areas of science with better chances of return on investment. By this I don't mean that we should only invest in that which we think will bring a return. Serendipity has been a stable of scientific research for centuries and I think will continue to be. But the chances of serendipity are maximized by looking in many directions, and not just a few.

And that, in a nutshell, is my main objection to the scientific priesthood. We spend a half billion dollars on observing objects so faint we are barely sure that we see them at all? Why not spend some of that on modelling the Sun that is so precious to our life? There are problems in fluid dynamics that affect long-term patterns in our climate. We have spent decades with fewer hurricanes, now we have reason to believe that for the next few we will have many more. A few years ago we didn't even guess at the rhythms of the ocean currents that are responsible. Now we do, what are the impacts? What else don't we know about long term climate?

Back when the SSC was under discussion I saw studies indicating that money spent on science paid back very handsomely to society. I believe that. However the same studies when looked at more closely suggested that billion dollar science projects don't pay for themselves. They lose money. If we are to spend that billion, I would like to see it scattered to the winds, come back the unexpected, and then let a future generation with more means come back to the big questions.

After all the questions aren't going away, and we are not about to solve them tomorrow. Why not let them sit? It is like the projections that NASA did about interstellar travel. They concluded that it was best to leave that for better technology. More precisely, they concluded that if we did it as fast as possible, we would get there well after much cheaper projects launched with the benefit of future technologies. Let us get a solid industrial base in orbit, and then we can built super telescopes to our heart's content. Let us build a VLA of radio telescopes from here to Jupiter. After we can do it affordably.

Cheers,
Ben
New Acclimation to acclamation or, touch\ufffd
Well at least they have grokked the English subtle form of
..My daddy! has a better insurance policy than Your daddy!

Epistemological problems indeed.

I had to love er Carter's, Weak Anthropic Principle and especially!

Tagmark's wry observation, ... a multiverse built with negligible algorithmic content and ... ... all our information is just an illusion due to decoherence !!!

So much fun.. with the dance around the idea of er mystical (the nigger? bugaboo of Real Science\ufffd as spoken?) -- as all the while the aim of the investigations is so far entered upon the event horizon of meta-fucking-physics as to have become deconstructed simultaneously with gaseous expansion!

Two last straws:

Godwin Declared! in the final throes of apoplectic non-certitude! following the Czech authors' linguistic faux pax majure:
..but he etiquetted his targets..
a nounistic bletcherism up with which I cannot put !! :-\ufffd

'Cosmology' as a basis for Mega-Government spending ?? Metaphysics entered! as if one might pussy-foot around the limits of the senses and pretend there are *none* ?? (but that's Another thread topic, destined to succeed the ontological proof of ___whatever)

I join Ben in finding a Disney, without a corporate Rat, to be one whom I can join in a nice


Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle..

maybe even another

Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle.. Cackle..
Quo Vadis?
Goeth in peace to the shrine of the

LRPD \ufffd

...but don't try to get a grant too, asshole..
New Re: Cosmological Point-Counterpoint
Disney's paper referenced one really nifty idea, some ideas I couldn't evaluate, and a titanically bogus idea. The nifty idea was Harwitt 1981; the idea of using different sets of data to estimate the total number of important discoveries left to be made. That's a clever and really cool trick. Back of the envelope stuff, to be sure, but still very clever.

The bogus idea -- this is the big one. The idea that observational sciences aren't, because you can't apply statistical methods to a single universe with a single history, is utterly and totally wrong. I read the paper twice, to make sure that he wasn't really saying what he seemed to be, but no, that seems to be the core claim. It will undoubtedly come as a great shock to geologists, evolutionary biologists, economists, and astronomers that what they are doing is not science, and that statistical methods don't apply to their fields of endeavor. If I reach out my hand, I can touch a dozen books that supply ample refutation of that claim. That's a pragmatic refutation. There are also reasons from algorithmic information theory to doubt his characterization of science, but I'll leave those for another day.

That's an idea stupid enough that it makes me dubious about everything else he writes. And I *agree* with his core pragmatic claims, namely that 1) Big Science is quite likely a waste of money, 2) cosmologists trying to appear philosophical and religious just look stupid, and 3) anyone who thinks we're close to solving it all is smoking crack. His paper does not add any reasons for me to believe these arguments at all.

Cerkovic's paper basically spent its time shooting the holes in Disney's facts. While this is fun, the argument seemed to be "if Disney can't get facts X, Y, and Z right, why should we believe claims 1, 2, and 3?" This is good rhetoric, but bad logic. But hell, given how easy Disney made it for Cerkovic, can you blame him? I sure can't.
New A more responsible take, of course.. but still -
Disney's was just good clean..


whoa.. let's take another look at this-all, and the wonderful predictions
(er, especially about the umm future)
and the *funding* and aw shucks..



Fun !
New Exactly
I completely agree with this assessment. In a sense, *both* expositions are rhetorical, and I'm sure Disney, a highly respected astrophysicist who in fact deals with the statistics of galaxy counts all the time, somewhat regrets his phrasing, and I'm not certain he said what he meant in the heat of writing a (much needed) polemic.

An even larger whopper in my opinion is the sophistic analogy Cirkovic draws between dark matter and neutrinos. If the understanding of neutrinos were still in its nascent stage after 70 years, that is, it's something but we don't know what and can't tell how to find out, then the idea would have been dropped like phlogiston and homunculi. But in fact there is a dynamics of neutrinos and they can be directly observed, so they have a real, verifiable existence. Certainly Pauli did not envision Cheshire cats with his idea of neutrinos, and fully expected, and helped supply, the theoretical background that allowed the direct observations to be carried out.

Disney to me had the same righteous anger at the perversion of science as did Halton Arp in "Seeing Red" (a fantastic book!) and so I can forgive him. Cirkovic seemed to me to be more of a smart-ass apologist for bad science.

By the way, Cirkovic's rhetorical method, to attack the messenger and adopt a high moral tone, is de rigeur behavior from all Bangers when confronted with unpleasant facts.
New Phlogiston dead? Oh no, my son..
Dissolve white Phosphorous in xxx (Censored, a nasty smelling red liquid of low viscosity) - pour a tad of this solution on Any combustible in open air: rapid raising to the kindling temp; even a mass like a say, phone pole - starts burning. (Glad it hasn't reached the arsenals yet of.. too many nut-cases)

Phlogiston! (well.. we called it that :-)

OK OK - know what'cha mean. Concur re the Righteousness of the fulminations of Bangers as and when - their fav playpen is invaded by the unwashed - (umm, those uncomfortable with extrapolations backwards, via fanciful musings and lots of faith?) Numerology is.. well sometimes good clean fun, til you start believing it!

Now English bangers - those be Good! (if not necessarily good for you)
     Cosmological Point-Counterpoint - (deSitter) - (7)
         Weee-eeell.... - (imric)
         I agree with Disney - (ben_tilly)
         Acclimation to acclamation or, touch\ufffd - (Ashton)
         Re: Cosmological Point-Counterpoint - (neelk) - (3)
             A more responsible take, of course.. but still - - (Ashton)
             Exactly - (deSitter) - (1)
                 Phlogiston dead? Oh no, my son.. - (Ashton)

Did you hear the one about the priest, the rabbi, and the gloat?
61 ms