I didn't call Helms-Burton an "arbitrary, stupid law" in my post. I didn't express any opinion about it, but rather gave a too brief summary of my understanding of what it was. I said he was "a thorn in the side of those attempting to have a reasonable foreign policy, IMHO."
Which would indicate to me that you don't find it "reasonable".
Sorry if you didn't like that inference, I still get the same one. But I'll agree you didn't use those words (I was talking about more than just you, and using yours as an example). My apologies for any misunderstanding.
Castro will remain in power as long as he is alive and has enough popular support. The damage Cuban economy suffers under the US embargo has little to do with that - and may in fact help increase his support. The embargo, as structured now, is counter-productive, IMO.
Those are 2 seperate issues. "Popular support" won't change, if there's not a reason to. (And getting shot for disagreeing/critizing Castro is a good reason not to make waves).
The embargo might very well be counter-productive. I can't say that its not. But I'm not sure lifting it helps the Cuban people.
Lifting it, allowing the money Cuba needs to keep things afloat in - that won't *decrease* Castro's support, it will increase it, and give Castro that much more control over the doling out of it, and where it goes.
I can see that as a possibility. Quite likely, anyway.
Trying to craft a plan that wouldn't increase Castro's power is difficult. Helms-Burton has certainly hurt Castro's power base (the popular support you mentioned).
There's a presumption in dealing with Cuba, that as soon as Castro is gone, the problem is solved. And I don't know why that is. (the Cuban exiles are really bad about it). Nothing shows me that magically Cuba will change into a democratic Shangri-La. Predicating everything on Castro is a mistake, IMO. I presume that someone will take over the dictatorial reins when he steps down/dies. (Don't forget, Cuba has never been a democracy)
Perhaps someone without the Charisma, and needing even more ruthless measures to keep "popular support?"
I'm not certain as to the best way to deal with that.
If there could be honest negotiation with Cuba, and open the barriers, I'd agree with you. But Cuba isn't allowing outside investment that will destabilize, or cause disruption, but that reinforces the government control.
So I'm still undecided on Helms-Burton, and the Embargo.... and not sure that its "unreasonable".
Addison