We are selective in our vision

Post #5,871 by ben_tilly 8/19/01 7:07:38 PM Reply	We are selective in our vision How do we find a planet around another star? Well, generally be seeing the motion of the star, demonstrating a wobble, and then figuring out what the missing mass must be doing. So we can only see planets that wobble their stars. Which means that we would have no way to "see" the types of planets that are in our own solar system. In fact the kind of planets we can spot are big ones in close to their stars. The kinds of planets we know about, not surprisingly, therefore are all big ones in close to their stars. We will have to wait until we can see smaller planets to find out what the balance between different kinds of solar systems really is. As for other intelligent life, I believe the odds we will see it are low. Why? Because we don't see them. This is known as the Fermi Paradox. Look at ourselves. Failing our wiping ourselves out, we are not that far from developing Von Neumann machines (ie machines that can replicate themselves). Once we have that, it is a question of time until we start colonizing the planets with our machines. In the relatively near future (say 1000 years) we are likely to set off for nearby planets. Within 50,000 years (probably a lot less) that effort is likely to achieve 0.1% of the speed of light. At that rate, we will finish covering the galaxy in 10 million years. 10 million years is an eyeblink on a galactic scale. So it seems probable that 10 million years ago there were no technological civilizations in the Galaxy, else they would be here. In 10 million years we will be there. The odds appear low that we will encounter any other examples. So which is the roadblock? Life? Intelligence? Technology? No idea. But I think that if we do find ET, it won't be in this galaxy. Cheers, Ben
Post #5,947 by Ashton 8/20/01 3:58:57 AM Reply	Moot for the foreseeable? Given theoretical possibilities for the stability of a platform (like Hubbell), inherent resolution limits as determine some min RMS 'wobble' to be deciphered.. it seems a futile mapping anyway. But of course we have to look anyway. even after extending the 'legs' for parallax correction - via pairs of orbiters many miles out, Cs clocks at THz freqs for pSec phase-lock yada yada. We're virtually forced to "look under the street lamp, where the light is - not where we lost the ___" via limits of our sensors + physics. Postulates of exploratory radii presuppose that, 'evolution' from possibly (?) omnipresent organic molecules hitch-hiking on space micro-dust (current best guess?) is The mechanism. Fortunately the characteristics of the hydronium ion give water its remarkable sp. heat, latent heat of vaporization and strange transitions at freezing and boiling - that part aids life possibilities, and the suppositions. But looking at the stages from zilch --> amoeba ---> onwards? (which we only can crudely guess about) and n! chances for accumulated small peculiarities of some Solar System II: Seems that the monkeys / typewriter / Hamlet likelihood is the order of probabilities here. So I think.. ET good entertainment. Period. We're stuck with Ourselves and - no rescue from our self-induced follies, as we merrily fill up and casually trash the only nest extant. While many forces from The Pope down - deem birth-control must still be, The Old Debbil's Work. (Factor superstition into evolution: how?) Besides, it's only 56 years, 1 month, 2 days since Trinity. There are, between just US / former USSR >20K nuclear weapons from 155 mm howitzer size through > 5 MT (more a vengeance than tactical creation), a rapidly bankrupting Russia - increasingly being dissed by folks with the IQ of Dubya and no vision beyond the next quarter or local election. All as.. Russia's C and C deteriorates daily, including via alcoholism of on-duty controllers (recent report) and we rattle cages about NATO-izing even the Balkans on their border. (With a M$-grade accounting dbase, just to make it a Real comedy) Believe Carl Sagan hit on the obvious: ours is the only test case, whether Any homo-sap-like civilization can last 50 years (we made that, barely - whew! lots of near-misses). 60 _?_ 70 _?_ 100 _?_ 1000 _?_ after discovery of EZ self-immolation, effortless as flipping a switch. Or clicking a mouse, now. Place yer bets. (Only way to win This game is not to ___) I'll place a small chip if we make 60, double it at 70. Cheers, Ashton
Post #5,954 by ben_tilly 8/20/01 8:15:49 AM Reply	Moot for now The history of the "poor man's nukes", aka gas warfare (used in WW I, not used since against a foe similarly equipped) suggests that people may continue to blink before committing suicide. As for Hubble etc, I said we would have to wait. I didn't point out how long it would likely be. :-) But yes, going from where we are to spotting Earth-like planets is sort of like the gap between Galileo's telescope and trying to count freckle-sized features on Mars. Don't hold your breath. Cheers, Ben

Welcome to IWETHEY!