There are a lot of people today using languages which do allocation and garbage collection for you. Many of these languages are written by people with a distinct Unix bent, who really like having a flat address space.
They may balk at having to mess up their internal data structures for that. If they don't accept it, and there is already a culture of acceptance for huge performance overheads, 64-bit might be more popular than Intel thinks.
Although thinking about it, and speaking out of my *ss, I wonder if languages (like Java, Ruby and Perl 6 but not like Python or Perl 5) with true garbage collection will have no problem adjusting. After all the details of how you access data is already indirect (because of the garbage collection), I can imagine that people could come up with schemes where paging is all done behind the scenes and you are fine as long as you have less than 4 GB of objects.
Does anyone who actually knows anything about garbage collection techniques either way care to confirm or correct that guess?
Cheers,
Ben