He's accurate, in places, and ultra pessimistic in others.
This is the vision that enthralls the War Party \ufffd "World War IV," as they call it \ufffd a series of "cakewalks," short sharp wars on Iraq, Syria and Iran to eliminate the Islamic terrorist threat to us and Israel for generations.
Very few battle plans in history have survived contact with the enemy; e.g., Germany's supposed cakewalk against France in WW 1, and their premature/mistaken invasion of the USSR in WW 2. North Korea's invasion of South Korea was brilliantly countered by MacArthur, while long-distance micromanagement threw our troops into a meat grinder in Vietnam. And don't forget the Gulf War; the pessimists predicted hundreds, thousands, of US casualties when in fact it *did* turn out to be a cakewalk.
About the only one I can think of in recent history was Germany's invasion of France in WW 2 - they clobbered France pretty much as planned and on schedule.
Who knows what a new war with Iraq would bring - but he's certainly right in thinking we'd have to occupy Iraq for some time, probably much longer than our occupation of Japan and Germany after WW 2.
Just this: Pro-American regimes in Cairo, Amman and Riyadh will be shaken to their foundations by the cataclysm unleashed as Americans smash Iraq, while Israelis crush Palestinians.
But here he's letting his isolationistic tendencies rule. Who cares what the supposedly pro-American regimes do? Saudi Arabia is nominally our ally, but at least fifteen of the terrorists last September were *from* Saudi Arabia, and while Cairo pays lip service to friendship with the US, they speak out of both sides of their mouth - praising us in English speeches, villifying us in Arabic.
And it's no sure thing that the Israelis would move in to crush the Palestinians (well, at least, any more than they're already doing) or re-invade Lebanon. Shoot, Israel could probably clobber Syria forces supporting Lebanon easily, but they've been remarkably acquisant to releasing control of the Golan Heights (stupid military move, wishful political thinking on their part IMO) and making other concessions.
What Buchannan doesn't mention is that while we may be engaged in empire building, we're doing it *incompetantly*. It's one thing to decide to build an empire and maintain it, it's another thing to dither and weasel and do a piss-poor job at it.
