Re: Of course what this will mean for most of us is...

Post #51,377 by deSitter 9/11/02 11:05:15 AM Reply	Re: Of course what this will mean for most of us is... It's a survival imperative to at least colonize Mars. If you thought the danger from impacts was the greatest risk we face, [link\|http://users.aber.ac.uk/rav/lis/toba.htm\|think again.] Gulp. -drl
Post #51,379 by ben_tilly 9/11/02 11:11:49 AM Reply	Thanks for that link as well Scary. I hadn't heard of that eruption before, but easily [link\|http://volcano.und.nodak.edu/vwdocs/volc_images/southeast_asia/indonesia/toba.html\|verified] that it happened. (A skill that kids don't learn and should. Immediately sanity test anything that you hear. With Google it has become amazingly easy to do so, pretty much no matter what the topic is. If more of us had the habit then misinformation would have a much shorter lifespan.) Cheers, Ben "Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly." - [link\|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html\|Walter Mead]
Post #51,388 by deSitter 9/11/02 11:42:06 AM Reply	Re: Thanks for that link as well "Pyroclastic flows covered an area of 20000 sq. km" Let's put this statement into context: think of circle 175 miles across, in which everything has been rolled over by thousand degree gases and ash clouds. Imagine the entire state of New Jersey, incinerated and then buried. I saw estimates that ejecta were propelled up to 50 miles up. -drl
Post #51,389 by drewk 9/11/02 11:44:21 AM Reply	Yeeees, imaaaaaaaaaagine ... Imagine the entire state of New Jersey, incinerated and then buried. === Microsoft offers them the one thing most business people will pay any price for - the ability to say "we had no choice - everyone's doing it that way." -- [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=38978\|Andrew Grygus]
Post #51,410 by altmann 9/11/02 1:32:32 PM Reply	if (font_size > NORMAL) sanity_test_required = true; // :) And if a volcanic eruption doesn't get us, perhaps the [link\|http://www.disasterrelief.org/Disasters/010831tsunami/\|mega-tsunami] will. -- Chris Altmann
Post #51,421 by drewk 9/11/02 2:14:09 PM Reply	Were we watching the same shows? Saw the one about the mega-tsunami right before/after the one about the volcanos. Might as well have called it the "All scary shit, all day" weekend. === Microsoft offers them the one thing most business people will pay any price for - the ability to say "we had no choice - everyone's doing it that way." -- [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=38978\|Andrew Grygus]
Post #51,424 by inthane-chan 9/11/02 2:18:39 PM Reply	Throw on top of that... ...wandering massive objects to peturb orbits, local cluster supernova, airborne versions of ebola hauled around the world by our efficient transport system, ice age/global warming, environmental collapse, etc. Gee, I shouldn't even bother gettin' up tomorrow, ya think? ;) End of world rescheduled for day after tomorrow. Something should probably be done. Please advise.
Post #51,432 by altmann 9/11/02 3:14:33 PM Reply	Yep. And I found transcripts of the shows. I first saw them back to back. They've shown them separately a few times since then. They were on the Discovery Channel. It looks like they are the same as these two BBC shows: [link\|http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2000/mega_tsunami.shtml\|Mega-tsunami: Wave of Destruction] [link\|http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes.shtml\|Supervolcanoes] A link to the transcript of each show is at the bottom of each page. I couldn't find any sign of the shows on the Discovery Channel's website or schedule for the next couple of weeks. -- Chris Altmann
Post #51,387 by drewk 9/11/02 11:39:52 AM Reply	Can't get to the Yellowstone link, but ... Just saw something about this on Dicsovery (maybe TLC). A geologist was doing some research in Yellowstone in the 80's. (Might be 70's, this is from memory.) Noticed that the lake he was next to seemed to be overflowing its banks. Looking around a little, it turned out it was only overflowing one bank, which didn't make sense. So he started taking some altitude surveys. Compared them against surveys taken in the 20's. It seems the land under the north end of the lake had risen ~80 cm since the last survey. Conclusion: All the geothermal activiy in Yellowstone can be attributed to a massive[1] pool of lava collecting under the surface. They can verify the calderas of three previous eruptions, ~600,000, ~1,200,000 and ~2,000,000 years ago. Which means we are (very roughly) due for an eruption larger than any in recorded history. Or even un-recorded history.[2] [1] 30km x 70km x ? -- depth can't be measured with current techniques. [2] The existing calderas are the largest known on Earth. === Microsoft offers them the one thing most business people will pay any price for - the ability to say "we had no choice - everyone's doing it that way." -- [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=38978\|Andrew Grygus]
Post #51,390 by deSitter 9/11/02 11:49:48 AM Reply	Re: Can't get to the Yellowstone link, but ... A huge area in the West is rising as a whole, which accounts for the spectacular gorges and canyons of Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. I don't think this phenomenon is completely understood yet. From south of Grand Junction, CO, you can look north and see this immense, high plateau - at first it looks like distant clouds, then you realize it's land and you get a queasy feeling, like you can't identify the horizon. You get some visceral comprehension of the heaving Earth. In some ways it's more spectacular than mountains. -drl
Post #51,394 by Silverlock 9/11/02 12:18:23 PM Reply	Try this one [link\|http://www.solcomhouse.com/yellowstone.htm\|Super volcano] in Yellowstone. "Can you wage war against an abstract noun?" -Terry Jones
Post #51,395 by drewk 9/11/02 12:21:25 PM Reply	That's it, similar graphics to what was on the show === Microsoft offers them the one thing most business people will pay any price for - the ability to say "we had no choice - everyone's doing it that way." -- [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=38978\|Andrew Grygus]
Post #51,403 by ben_tilly 9/11/02 1:03:57 PM Reply	Some day... we may dream of identifying these calderas and bleeding off the pressure in a controlled way. Yes it sounds crazy. It will sound crazy to our grandchildren as well. But it is less crazy than visiting the stars, and we already dream of that... Cheers, Ben "Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly." - [link\|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html\|Walter Mead]
Post #51,404 by Silverlock 9/11/02 1:07:36 PM Reply	If you could bleed off the pressure.... You could then use it for energy needs. That's one mighty big steam engine. "Can you wage war against an abstract noun?" -Terry Jones
Post #51,409 by drewk 9/11/02 1:23:54 PM Reply	Only problem It's a bubble. Try "bleeding off" pressure from a soap bubble. Not saying it's impossible, but this is one you absolutely have to get right on the first try. === Microsoft offers them the one thing most business people will pay any price for - the ability to say "we had no choice - everyone's doing it that way." -- [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=38978\|Andrew Grygus]
Post #51,414 by ben_tilly 9/11/02 1:42:20 PM Reply	Not as hard as it looks Drill your first shafts well on the side. Without reshaping the whole thing, it cannot vent there. However if it is too close to the "pop", this won't work. But until a few hundred cubic km have been removed, avoiding triggering it probably is better than speed.. Cheers, Ben "Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly." - [link\|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html\|Walter Mead]
Post #51,422 by drewk 9/11/02 2:14:57 PM Reply	I love understatement But until a few hundred cubic km have been removed, avoiding triggering it probably is better than speed. You think? === Microsoft offers them the one thing most business people will pay any price for - the ability to say "we had no choice - everyone's doing it that way." -- [link\|http://z.iwethey.org/forums/render/content/show?contentid=38978\|Andrew Grygus]
Post #51,452 by ben_tilly 9/11/02 6:56:08 PM Reply	From your title... I thought you were snickering at my title. Anyways, I was laughing as I posted that. :-) Cheers, Ben "Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly." - [link\|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html\|Walter Mead]
Post #51,485 by Silverlock 9/12/02 1:13:12 AM Reply	Not a problem. I did say "if", didn't I? "Can you wage war against an abstract noun?" -Terry Jones
Post #51,582 by deSitter 9/12/02 8:50:50 PM Reply	Re: Some day... Have you thought about this problem from the point of view of dimensional analysis? My guess is that the time scale to relieve the pressure by the same ratio would get very large as the body increased in size. It has to be related to the ratio of volume to surface area, and is probably something like black-body radiation. So it may take forever to relieve the pressure. -drl
Post #51,583 by ben_tilly 9/12/02 8:53:52 PM Reply	Yes And as long as you can drain magma about as fast as it arrives, you are happy. Free energy. No volcano. Of course the required levels of engineering will remain a pipe dream for generations... Cheers, Ben "Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly." - [link\|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html\|Walter Mead]
Post #51,587 by wharris2 9/12/02 9:48:00 PM Reply	Generations? You're pessimistic. I think we'll see tapping of volcanos or active seismic zones for energy within my lifetime (which, given insurance statistics and adjusted [myself] for health problems, may be 25 years.) I'm 40, I hope to live far beyond 65 but as a recovering (one never really recovers) alcoholic I'm trying to be realistic. 1. We admitted we were powerless over alcohol - that our lives had become unmanageable.
Post #51,591 by ben_tilly 9/12/02 10:16:39 PM Reply	Depends what you think I was talking about :-) We are already tapping geothermal energy. I don't anticipate us any time soon seriously considering digging to the magma in Yellowstone so that we can bleed it off in a controlled manner. Kind of the difference between sailing a toy sailboat and sailing around the world. :-) Cheers, Ben "Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly." - [link\|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html\|Walter Mead]
Post #51,597 by boxley 9/12/02 11:07:45 PM Reply	hmm. they are "theoretically" working on a space elevator and my gov of Alaska who I worked for has an active project to build a plastic pipe to ship fresh water from AK to CA and others are working on an AK to Siberia Chunnel we never know. thanx, bill will work for cash and other incentives [link\|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/Resume.html\|skill set] [link\|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/index.html\|boxley's home page] qui mori didicit servire dedidicit
Post #51,611 by ben_tilly 9/13/02 6:51:19 AM Reply	Lemme put it this way... We have found from scientific boreholes that about 3-4 km down there is a layer of highly mineralized rock that would be excellent for ores. We haven't figured out how to mine it in commercial volumes. We think the top of the Yellowstone magma chamber is about 8 km down. And we would like to remove magma faster than we would want to mine that water, when magma is a much trickier substance to work with. Yeah, I know about scientific progress and all. But some things take time. Cheers, Ben "Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly." - [link\|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html\|Walter Mead]
Post #51,625 by deSitter 9/13/02 9:56:52 AM Reply	Battling the Bottle Just don't get brainwashed. You have to come to terms with it. In my mind, the biggest challege is to learn to drink reasonably, that is, know when to stop. This is the only real permanent solution. Good luck, and I mean that. -drl
Post #51,985 by wharris2 9/16/02 11:13:19 PM Reply	Come to terms? Some people may be able to, but my terms, alas, are that I can't control it. I'm not an anti-drinking fanatic, but I just cannot do it, myself. The lawyers would mostly rather be what they are than get out of the way even if the cost was Hammerfall. - Jerry Pournelle
Post #52,004 by ben_tilly 9/17/02 7:23:12 AM Reply	This is a good thing to know about yourself I am lucky that those aren't my terms. But I have seen the tragic results when people who have that limit then try to push their abilities at self-control. And I have seen the mess they leave among others after they die from it. Cheers, Ben "Career politicians are inherently untrustworthy; if it spends its life buzzing around the outhouse, it\ufffds probably a fly." - [link\|http://www.nationalinterest.org/issues/58/Mead.html\|Walter Mead]
Post #52,084 by deSitter 9/17/02 4:20:50 PM Reply	Re: Come to terms? Well, I have had friends who completely stopped, and it was clearly not a solution, and it was not realistic because they had the mindset that one drink represented a total failure. There was no accumulation of advantage - at any point, even 20 years later, a total failure could happen with one misstep. The 12 step programs are nothing but poorly hidden religious indoctrination, in which you either believe, or don't. There is no gray. But people are gray. Motivations are never pure. No one is completely rational. So these people ended up in worse shape, even though they were sober, because all room for error was gone - they might as well have been living under some kind of final court order, although self-imposed. It seemed sad to me that the cure was worse than the disease. I myself was concerned at one time about drinking to excess - so I attended a few AA meetings. I ended up with more real empathy for stone unrepentant drunks, who it seemed to me were waging an honest war with their demons. And I also knew that there was a lot more to alcoholism than drinking. So I think you have to attack the underlying cause, and the symptom - drinking to excess - will go away. It's a personal opinion but I'm sure it's right. The objective is to get better. Avoiding drink as an end in itself almost never works. Personally, what "fixed" me in that regard was simply recognizing that I expected too much from myself and from others. Lowered expectations from others automatically lowered the impetus to drown in booze. Another aspect is - you can't expect quick solutions. My drinking gradually tailed off to the point it was no longer a major component of life - but I still love a cold beer on a hot day. Am I cured? Of course not - I never had a disease. I just stopped being self-indulgent. -drl
Post #52,114 by boxley 9/17/02 7:55:16 PM Reply	Different from a physical condition I know many who if they have one or 2 drinks are fine. I also know others that if they have one drink they will be drunk until dead, run out of money or end up in Jail or the hospital. That is a physical as opposed to a mental affliction. thanx, bill will work for cash and other incentives [link\|http://home.tampabay.rr.com/boxley/resume/Resume.html\|skill set] qui mori didicit servire dedidicit
Post #52,122 by wharris2 9/17/02 9:47:28 PM Reply	Personal habits Me, at my depths of addiction, I never went out and partied, it was just me at home with a bottle or two. Now that's a bad deal. In social settings, I wasn't one of the uncontrollable bar-hopping drinkers. In part, this was good in that I never got into fights, did stupid stuff, or tried to drive home from a bar while drunk, but on the other hand, drinking shots at home finally did start to have an effect on health and at work. Bad, very bad. I could probably handle a glass or two of beer while bowling, or a marguarita, Long Island iced tea, or something else over dinner. But that wasn't what eventually caused problems for me. And at this point, it's actually dangerous to me for me to destroy any more of my liver with even a beer or two. I've heard arguments that the "total abstinance" program of AA can be detrimental. I can't disagree with that; for many people, the whole-hog AA program is damn stupid. And its religious overtones really turns me off. (No matter what they say, the Higher Power is God, and I don't care what they pretend, they pretty much say "You atheists or agnostics are screwed.")
Post #51,428 by SpiceWare 9/11/02 2:44:03 PM Reply	Saw on PBS watched an HDTV show on PBS about mapping the human genome and this was one of the things they covered. (searching) I believe it was in this 2 hour Nova episode - [link\|http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/genome/\|Cracking the Code of Life]. It's the first episode of Nova that I've seen in hi-def. Darrell Spice, Jr. [link\|http://home.houston.rr.com/spiceware/\|SpiceWare] - We don't do Windows, it's too much of a chore

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