We ain't talkin' bathtub gin here.

Post #51,165 by Brandioch 9/9/02 9:52:48 PM Reply	We ain't talkin' bathtub gin here. 4 years is certainly long enough for them to have shuffled the shells long enough in their shell game that the U.N. inspectors (if allowed back, given previous restrictions placed upon them by Iraq) would have to be inhumanly lucky to stumble upon some weapons factory somewhere. No. Chemical processing (for gunpowder) on a militarily significant scale (more than re-loading your own shells) requires decent processing equipment. Plus, age and storage are factors. While you can throw a case of shotgun shells in your trunk over the winter, moving truckloads of munitions around requires more effort. Storage is even more important with chemical weapons.
Post #51,215 by wharris2 9/10/02 11:46:27 AM Reply	Bathtub gin? They apparently kept the inspectors away from the chemicals they used against the Kurds, did they not? If they've done it before, they can do it again, and four years of preparation isn't going to make inspections of suspicious sites any easier. The lawyers would mostly rather be what they are than get out of the way even if the cost was Hammerfall. - Jerry Pournelle
Post #51,464 by Brandioch 9/11/02 8:52:39 PM Reply	They did that by keeping the inspectors away. Many times they refused to let the inspectors inspect buildings that the inspectors believed were being used to manufacture/store chem/bio/nuclear materials. To me that means that the inspectors knew where it was happening and they knew that because it is so hard to keep it a secret. When they arrived on site, they were not allowed to inspect. The inspectors knew where it was. Iraq knew that the inspectors would find it if they were allowed to inspect. Iraq did not allow the inspectors to inspect. No hiding.
Post #51,524 by wharris2 9/12/02 12:06:31 PM Reply	Oh, then, that proves it. NOT. The fact that the inspectors knew or suspected some sites proves nothing about the possible existence of other sites. For a lot of weapon research, one wouldn't even necessarily need a constant stream of supplies. Closer to home, they still haven't found the source of the anthrax attacks, despite having the power to get search warrants almost at will. They're devoting a lot of attention to this Hatfill guy, but if in fact he is responsible, he's certainly hidden his tracks pretty well - and if it isn't him, then whoever did do it covered his or her tracks pretty thoroughly. It doesn't take too much of a stretch to think that some unobvious normal-looking building somewhere in Iraq might conceal a chemical or biological lab. The lawyers would mostly rather be what they are than get out of the way even if the cost was Hammerfall. - Jerry Pournelle

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