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New For those of you who speak German...
...and have 22 + 34 = 56 minutes to spare, here are a couple of videos dealing with this story:

Seymour Hersh: Der BEWEIS, North Stream waren die AMIS! Oder doch nicht? Aufarbeitung des Artikels. (22:04)

and

Seymour Hershs Geschichte ist eine klassische Verschwörungstheorie. Aktueller Stand & Quellenkritik (33:43)

Militär & Geschichte mit Torsten Heinrich is a rather popular (66.9K subscribers) German vlog that deals with the Ukraine war. Torsten lives in Central America; AIUI in, of all places, Panama. (Maybe he came across this story because it's part of his regular internet search routine?) He is, as you can see from the video lengths above, rather prone to going on (and on and on...), and as you also can see quite sensationalist in his headline setting. But the actual content, beneath the waffling, is more sensible and balanced, so much of what he says seems quite reasonable. (In large part, of course, because it's so obvious as to be self-evident.)

On the whole, I agree with his take here, which IIRC was:

TL;DW -- German vlogger thinks, first video:

1) Is that even Hersh? If it's him, why is this (his only!) article on Substack, and not on the NYT / WaPo / The Atlantic, etc?

2) If it's him, has he gone troll / Putler agent?

3) Or has he been duped by his single source, who might be
.. a) a troll
.. b) a Putler agent
.. c) someone else who has been duped by a troll / Putler agent?

Second video:

1) Summary of first video

2) Means and deception
.. a) Why would one put up a NATO exercise as camouflage, and then use a Norwegian ship to do it, when the Norwegians aren't participating in the exercise?
.. b) Stuff about which ships and planes were going where and when.

3) Classic hallmarks of conspirace theory:
.. a) Single source, weird publication site (as per first video).
.. b) No ships / planes near enough where it happened, 2b above -- Tinfoil hatters go "They had their transponders off!" In the middle of an exercise with a lot of other warships with theirs on, and none of those wondered about this?
.. c) Nobody else has got a whiff of this, the mysterious single source hasn't talked to anyone else?

4) Qui bono? In stead of asking, "Who had an interest in blowing up the pipeline", should one ask who had an interest in not blowing up all the pipelines? Remember, Nord Stream 1 and 2 each consisted of two pipes each. Only three of the four were blown. And Heinrich notes that the one that wasn't was one half of NS2, for which no usage contract is in place.

Food for thought, somewhat convincing IMO.
--

   Christian R. Conrad
The Man Who Apparently Still Knows Fucking Everything


Mail: Same username as at the top left of this post, at iki.fi
New if I understand point 4 correctly
Only three of the four were blown. And Heinrich notes that the one that wasn't was one half of NS2, for which no usage contract is in place.

so no constrained pricing model?
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
New Yes, AIUI.
And NS1 is under a contract that for all I know reads something like "Germany has an exclusive right to get as much gas as it wants through this pipe". So if Germany says "the amount we want is zero", Putler isn't going to sell any gas through NS1 for however long that contract is. But since Germany doesn't have any such deal on NS2, he could well write a contract to pump gas through NS2 to, say, Serbia or Hungary.
--

   Christian R. Conrad
The Man Who Apparently Still Knows Fucking Everything


Mail: Same username as at the top left of this post, at iki.fi
New I won't be alive when the docs are released
I seem to recall about 50 years before the archivists can start digging and of course s*** will be hidden. And I don't speak German.

But what do you think? Do you think the US did it?
New Nope. Seems too much risk for too little gain (or none). Why would they?
New To be very sure that they are never turned on again
Whether or not it's worth the risk of the blowback is a calculation that I can't make.

But European and very specifically German dependence on those pipes tilted the world in the last 5 years. One of the few things I ever agreed with Trump on.

So while they were being wound down in theory, the reality is someone could make a decision and flip a switch and all the sudden all the influence is back. I could very easily see someone making a decision to make sure that did not happen again.
New It was probably the Norwegians . . .
. . to make sure they could continue to get a good price for their gas.
New You guys are supposed to be good at blowing shit up. You'd have got all four.
     did america blow the russion pipelines? maybe - (boxley) - (14)
         Maybe not. - (Another Scott) - (1)
             his track record isnt good but that is one way to blow it - (boxley)
         For those of you who speak German... - (CRConrad) - (7)
             if I understand point 4 correctly - (boxley) - (6)
                 Yes, AIUI. - (CRConrad) - (5)
                     I won't be alive when the docs are released - (crazy) - (4)
                         Nope. Seems too much risk for too little gain (or none). Why would they? -NT - (CRConrad) - (3)
                             To be very sure that they are never turned on again - (crazy) - (2)
                                 It was probably the Norwegians . . . - (Andrew Grygus)
                                 You guys are supposed to be good at blowing shit up. You'd have got all four. -NT - (CRConrad)
         "Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officials Say" - (a6l6e6x) - (3)
             need sat diving capabilty and ship/boat support in a heavily patrolled area -NT - (boxley)
             "Suggests" - (Another Scott)
             AIUI (from other src, not read these yet), it all boils down to "Could have been a tiny 'private'... - (CRConrad)

They may disagree on who is an idiot, but they agree that most are.
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