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New Yeah those numbers are off for young professionals
Yes, houses are incredibly expensive relative to income. And they always have been, just not in the same way. I paid 9% interest on a 30 year mortgage in 1985 or so. As far as I'm concerned interest rates are so low and have been for years they have been just been giving money away. And I was in a heavily taxed neighborhood. 30% of my mortgage was land taxes and school taxes. I bought way more a house than I possibly could and I struggled hard. And my monthly house nut was 1800. It cost about $180K and according to you guys I got an incredible deal.

Mortgage interest is front loaded. I spent about 15 years paying almost only interest and when I sold the house I had almost no equity. It was worth it. That was when I left Barbara. I have had three total financial resets since then.

I just bought a house half the size of that house for 300K. And while it's in a great tourist town, it's distant to everything. So nobody who needs to commute can live here.

Also, keep in mind that interest rates indicate risk. It is the amount of risk that the lender is willing to take on. This is a very risky world and I'm sure they're being far pickier now and upping people's interest rates because they are riskier.

Until I got to that point in my life I couldn't possibly expect to have bought a house. I had years of ever-increasing stable income in technology. I was highly paid for my age. So I was a good young bet for a bank.

So to start off with I don't understand why people who haven't crossed a certain level of stability and income expect to own a house on land. Where do these expectations come from?

What is the costs that go into that structure (and try to really allocate for the people's time that worked on putting that house together for you) and what is the value of the land versus what these guys are willing to pay. Sure. The houses are crazy expensive now and the multiples are probably about 50% higher than when I bought it. But buying a house is a top life achievement, not an expectation.

Reasonable dense apartment housing that have good walls and no rats, on the other hand is a reasonable expectation. Housing is, while not a right, damn close.

Double wide tiny houses are great. People b**** about not being able to buy their McMansions. Factory built and delivered and slapped together. But a brick or stick house? That's real money and real time and real skills that you have to pay for.

Don't forget the underlying infrastructure that a house needs to attach to the neighborhood. Let's say you bought a plot of land in a little coastal town next door to me. It's one house length off the main road but it's got a dirt road to it. And you got to get electricity and water and sewage or septic tank depending on what is possible. And then the town tells you in order to do any of this you have to build a road. You are responsible for paying for the sewer main and the water main coming in. How much did that all just cost?

Town plan says roads will be paved. Town was initially laid out and paved. Everybody involved in the town pays for everything. Then someone new shows up and says I want to build something on a plot of land that's not on the infrastructure and I want the town to pay for it. Citizens tell them to go f*** themselves and pay for it themselves.

Next door is great to see this play out.

But cheap real estate? No. Nobody's building more real estate. It's only going to get more expensive unless it's in a depressed area that you don't want to be in any way. That's an ever-increasing price in any area that anybody wants to live in.
Expand Edited by crazy March 31, 2022, 06:28:44 AM EDT
Expand Edited by crazy March 31, 2022, 06:36:01 AM EDT
Expand Edited by crazy March 31, 2022, 06:41:13 AM EDT
Expand Edited by crazy March 31, 2022, 06:57:20 AM EDT
New $1800/$180K is the ratio I remember
--

Drew
New The market is going through wrenching changes now.
And has been for a while. But these things go in cycles.

From CalculatedRiskBlog



Note that by this index, during the early ‘80s, homes were very unaffordable due to the very high mortgage rates. During the housing bubble, houses were also less affordable using 30-year mortgage rates, however, during the bubble, there were many “affordability products” that allowed borrowers to be qualified at the teaser rate (usually around 1%) that made houses seem more affordable.

In general, this would suggest houses are the least affordable since the housing bubble. This says nothing about if “now is a good time to buy” (see the bottom of my post Housing: A Look at "Affordability" Indexes).

Also, in January, the average 30-year mortgage rates were around 3.45%, and currently mortgage rates are close to 4.9% - so we already know the “Affordability Price Index” will increase sharply over the next couple of months (meaning houses are even less affordable).


We were fortunate to be able to buy in the late '90s and pay it off early. People in their mid-late 30s looking to buy now (or even rent now) are paying substantially more than we did and it looks to continue on that trend for a while.

:-(

Zoning changes, like (as I understand it) California did to allow/require duplex zoning on previously single-family homes areas, will help eventually. Restricting (somehow) speculators buying up all the inventory (and sometimes keeping it off the market) may help too.

Cheers,
Scott.
New I've heard it's mostly the first
Failure/refusal to build new "first" housing (smaller homes, multi-unit development, etc.) is the main problem. Speculators buying property is happening, but it's more on the margins.

Both of these are very geographically specific.
--

Drew
New By that chart, it's not that far off the '76 baseline now
"houses are the least affordable since the housing bubble" - they're much closer to the most affordable it has been since'76 than they are to the peak of the last housing bubble.
Regards,
-scott
Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
     house market changes longish article on interest rates and home purchases - (boxley) - (12)
         Are my expectations off, or is this article? - (drook) - (11)
             she looking in the wrong place, maybe for right downtown next to the stadium - (boxley) - (4)
                 St Petersburg, actually - (drook) - (3)
                     st pete - (boxley) - (2)
                         Her job is at the south end - (drook) - (1)
                             still a lot of nice stuff much cheaper than $2300 -NT - (boxley)
             Urban property prices be crazy. - (pwhysall)
             Yeah those numbers are off for young professionals - (crazy) - (4)
                 $1800/$180K is the ratio I remember -NT - (drook)
                 The market is going through wrenching changes now. - (Another Scott) - (2)
                     I've heard it's mostly the first - (drook)
                     By that chart, it's not that far off the '76 baseline now - (malraux)

Make it so.
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