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New Need a house, trying to time it
We have a 6 to 12 month window of paying down bills and getting a mortgage. Currently we are renting but we can walk at any given moment, our lease is with a buddy who is okay with us leaving when we do.

Interest rates are low compared to what I was used to years ago and there is a fear of them rising so I would like to know what your opinion is on how much they can rise in that time frame, reasonably. Is 1% a reasonable number or could it be more based on what?

Next is supply. Supplies are tight right now. Renters aren't moving, they aren't even paying their bills. But there will come a day when the eviction prohibition is over and landlords who are renting houses to people not paying will kick them out. But these landlords haven't been paid in a year and they're just waiting to kick people out so they can sell houses that they can no longer afford. I expect within a month or two of the eviction prohibition being lifted many many houses enter the market there by driving the prices down and popping the bubble. Right now there are houses being advertised as the landlord's dream. You have tenants who are paying the rent according to the ads. That means we can't move into them and at any given moment the tenant can stop paying the rent and you can't get them out.

Based on M's nursing position we have to be within a reasonable commutable distance to a major city that has a decent amount of nursing homes which in turn offer choosable employment. So remote office worker working at home location in the sticks does not work for us. Currently we are 10 minutes out of Denver. We need something large enough that can be split into apartment for M Junior and boyfriend and another area to put M's father into when he decides to live with us someday.

And M hates the concept of neighbors. If she could find something 30 minutes out with a bit of land she'd much rather have that than a townhouse 3 minutes from work. and I'd really love a barn that I could turn into a wood shop. So if anyone wants to start googling properties and send them my way feel free.

Is this a reasonable viewpoint? What am I missing?
Expand Edited by crazy April 5, 2021, 08:12:43 AM EDT
Expand Edited by crazy April 5, 2021, 08:14:30 AM EDT
Expand Edited by crazy April 5, 2021, 08:26:29 AM EDT
Expand Edited by crazy April 5, 2021, 09:04:44 AM EDT
New By the way, this is what I predicted for the internet many years ago
The internet allows people in non-local locations to join together based on point of view. POV. This is what I predicted the value of the internet was. People in multiple locations providing their point of view. Don't disappoint me god dammit, provide your point of view. Your expertise without being paid for it.
New 5 acres 3 mobile homes done :-)
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
New Absolutely consideration
I rented a mobile home for about a year and I got to tell you that's plenty of room for me. I have no problem looking at a property and thinking about placing multiple mobile homes on it.

But that's the plains. And the plains is far away.
New Keep an eye on CalculatedRisk.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

He watches housing and interest rates very carefully.

There's so much money on the sidelines, and Yellen and Powell are (finally) serious about normal people benefitting from economic growth, that it's hard for me to imagine interest rates going up much (though going from 2% to 3% (or whatever) is a big change). They're not going to choke-off the recovery.

Housing prices going up now is a bigger concern.

It's hard to know what will happen when/if the eviction moratorium ends. We're not out of the woods on COVID yet, and people in charge aren't going to want 10M people suddenly homeless...

Investors have been buying single-family homes for a long time. It was part of the AirB&B craze for a while, I think. You're right that inventory is a problem in a lot of places. Someone made a point that that part of the problem - investors buying homes and taking them off the market as rentals, waiting to flip them, etc., - could be fixed easily by imposing a non-occupancy tax. Something like that may have to be done, at least in some markets. And things would change quickly after that happened.

Otherwise: location, location, location. Don't expect to make money - historically housing goes up around 2% a year, but with luck you won't lose your shirt. And peace of mind, not having crappy upstairs neighbors, etc., is worth a lot.

Good luck!

Cheers,
Scott.
New Fully agree with last paragraph.
Houses as a wealth building investment no longer works like it used to.
Alex

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-- Isaac Asimov
New tell me about it sat on 150k for 11 years and made $800
just glad i didnt lose big
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
New It's happening now
The prices are dropping as we are watching. New homes are coming onto the market and not being bid up.

Cash is not available so now it's not time for me yet but I'd rather wait anyway. It's going to get into a frenzy in about a month.
New In our neighborhood...
...it's only happening for the "entry level" houses.

Put a nice home on the market, it's gone so fast there's a causality violation, which sucks because we're trying to move out of an "entry level" house.
Ceterum autem censeo pars Republican esse delendam.
New What's an entry level cost around you?
New Re: What's an entry level cost around you?
$6-800k. They were going for $100-200k over asking, in the past month they've been sitting longer. Houses above that aren't going on the market, and when they do, *poof* they're gone.
Ceterum autem censeo pars Republican esse delendam.
New make me glad I live in the swamp
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
New Seems you get to wait your turn for yet another decade or two:
--

   Christian R. Conrad
The Man Who Apparently Still Knows Fucking Everything


Mail: Same username as at the top left of this post, at iki.fi
     Need a house, trying to time it - (crazy) - (12)
         By the way, this is what I predicted for the internet many years ago - (crazy)
         5 acres 3 mobile homes done :-) -NT - (boxley) - (1)
             Absolutely consideration - (crazy)
         Keep an eye on CalculatedRisk. - (Another Scott) - (2)
             Fully agree with last paragraph. - (a6l6e6x) - (1)
                 tell me about it sat on 150k for 11 years and made $800 - (boxley)
         It's happening now - (crazy) - (4)
             In our neighborhood... - (InThane) - (3)
                 What's an entry level cost around you? -NT - (crazy) - (2)
                     Re: What's an entry level cost around you? - (InThane) - (1)
                         make me glad I live in the swamp -NT - (boxley)
         Seems you get to wait your turn for yet another decade or two: - (CRConrad)

He done made them there squiggly lines into WORDS!
69 ms