How do we know who people voted for?

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Post #437,139 by drook 11/10/20 11:40:51 AM 11/10/20 11:40:51 AM Reply	How do we know who people voted for? All the stories are about how the polls were so far off. White men were down for Trump, everyone else was up. But how do we know that? Ballots don't have demographic info. How do we know how people actually voted, and why do we trust that method more than we trust pre-election polling? -- Drew
Post #437,144 by mmoffitt 11/10/20 11:59:19 AM 11/10/20 11:59:19 AM Reply	Because its all we've got? bcnu, Mikem It's mourning in America again.
Post #437,161 by boxley 11/10/20 4:52:10 PM 11/10/20 4:52:10 PM Reply	demographics and the vote tallies? "Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
Post #437,165 by drook 11/10/20 5:13:49 PM 11/10/20 5:13:49 PM Reply	Nope, how would you know men were down and women were up in a district? -- Drew
Post #437,166 by scoenye 11/10/20 6:41:51 PM 11/10/20 6:41:51 PM Reply	The one advantage of exit polls You get to talk to actual voters. Short of a significant fraction telling porkies, statistical methods can adjust for the lopsided turnout.
Post #437,169 by drook 11/10/20 7:11:56 PM 11/10/20 7:11:56 PM Reply	True, it definitely selects out the ones who don't actually vote (but have opinions) -- Drew
Post #437,183 by Another Scott 11/11/20 11:17:35 AM 11/11/20 11:17:35 AM Reply	I assume it's census tract data mostly. E.g. if a census tract is 90% Green and the votes are 90% for Mango, then its a reasonable extrapolation that Greens voted for Mango. Voting information is public information. One can't tell who one voted for, but one can see that 98.382% of a district/census tract/zip code voted. Coupled with other data, one can make pretty good inferences. Now, statements like "Moral issues were #1 with Green voters" is a bunch of nonsense, especially in Plague Times. Cheers, Scott.

How do we know who people voted for? - (drook) - (6) - Nov. 10, 2020, 11:40:51 AM EST

Because its all we've got? -NT - (mmoffitt) - Nov. 10, 2020, 11:59:19 AM EST

demographics and the vote tallies? -NT - (boxley) - (3) - Nov. 10, 2020, 04:52:10 PM EST

Nope, how would you know men were down and women were up in a district? -NT - (drook) - (2) - Nov. 10, 2020, 05:13:49 PM EST

The one advantage of exit polls - (scoenye) - (1) - Nov. 10, 2020, 06:41:51 PM EST

True, it definitely selects out the ones who don't actually vote (but have opinions) -NT - (drook) - Nov. 10, 2020, 07:11:56 PM EST

I assume it's census tract data mostly. - (Another Scott) - Nov. 11, 2020, 11:17:35 AM EST

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