GE Predictions!

Post #436,856 by pwhysall 10/30/20 2:39:43 AM 10/30/20 2:39:43 AM Reply	GE Predictions! Let's have yours. I'll start: narrow win for Biden, ratfucked by Trump.
Post #436,858 by drook 10/30/20 10:04:15 AM 10/30/20 10:04:15 AM Reply	Votes cast: Solid Biden win; Votes counted on day 1: toss-up Which looks just like your prediction. -- Drew
Post #436,859 by malraux 10/30/20 10:26:37 AM 10/30/20 10:26:37 AM Reply	If Florida goes Biden by the end of the night that might be the end of it. It will be exceptionally hard for 45 to get a win without Florida even if he manages chicanery in Pennsylvania and/or North Carolina. Florida is already counting and will finish relatively early. Even Michigan is counting one day early this year, which will help keep down mirages in the Upper Midwest. Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
Post #436,860 by drook 10/30/20 10:43:46 AM 10/30/20 10:43:46 AM Reply	Are you accounting for the lawsuits? -- Drew
Post #436,861 by malraux 10/30/20 12:07:58 PM 10/30/20 12:07:58 PM Reply	That's the chicanery. Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
Post #436,862 by mmoffitt 10/30/20 2:31:14 PM 10/30/20 2:31:14 PM Reply	It worked for Dubya. bcnu, Mikem It's mourning in America again.
Post #436,864 by drook 10/30/20 3:09:52 PM 10/30/20 3:09:52 PM Reply	Good thing none of his lawyers are still working for the party Oh wait, that's because they're all on the Supreme Court now. So I guess they are working for the party. -- Drew
Post #436,863 by mmoffitt 10/30/20 2:34:07 PM 10/30/20 2:34:07 PM Reply	If Trump wins, this will be our last one. bcnu, Mikem It's mourning in America again.
Post #436,867 by a6l6e6x 10/30/20 10:31:30 PM 10/30/20 10:31:30 PM Reply	You got that right! Alex "There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov
Post #436,889 by Another Scott 11/1/20 10:59:27 AM 11/1/20 11:25:29 AM Reply	Blowout for Biden/Harris. Not quite the level of RWR v ~~Dukakis~~ Mondale, but big. NotLarrySabato is saying 413 to 125 in the EC. He's a smart cookie and not in the tank for Democrats, but I don't know if it will be that high. (Though, of course, it should be.) https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1322657081766354944 https://www.electoral-vote.com/senate/ is saying 53 / 1 / 46 in the Senate. I think there will be upside surprises in the Senate as well. There will be attempts to get the courts involved, but I think on the whole they will stay out of it. Races aren't going to be close, so there's no reason for them to. (Plus, there's issues of standing, issues of the GOP being on board with the state law changes months ago, etc., etc.) Donnie is a weak, broke, loser of a man. Nobody (competent) will fight for him anymore when the scale of the defeat is obvious. We'll see. Cheers, Scott. Edited by Another Scott Nov. 1, 2020, 11:25:29 AM EST Expand All History
Post #436,896 by Ashton 11/1/20 4:04:08 PM 11/1/20 4:04:08 PM Reply	Thanks for a few endorphins; me? "I Dream of Jeanie with the Light Brown Hair" (Stephen Foster tune--unknown to recent inmates of the dia-US) Plus.. I Do so Want to see this caricature of a inhumane-human Punished via all the means: ridicule, bad-mouthing, cancellation of any of his many scenarios to get out-from-under his perpetual-in-Debt-State: Himself and all who ever rode in his Death-Cart of Enablers [ + Them, too ] Might as well dream-Bigly, eh? (But I'm fair: I see that we cannot likely put the sucker in a tumbrel reserved for the soon-headless. Maybe next year?
Post #436,908 by pwhysall 11/2/20 6:09:06 AM 11/2/20 6:09:06 AM Reply	I would like to agree with you... ...but I think your expected outcome is pure fantasy. Trump is going to ratfuck and cheat and steal his way to another term.
Post #436,941 by Another Scott 11/2/20 5:04:51 PM 11/2/20 5:04:51 PM Reply	He's a blustering, angry old man. He won't get his way. His brainiac lawyers lost in Texas today, in front of their dream judge, and will continue to lose. https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/status/1323140042206765057 stuart stevens @stuartpstevens Guys, Trump is getting 51% of white vote. McCain lost with 55%. Romney and Trump got 59%. This isn’t going to be close. Cheers, Scott.
Post #436,903 by a6l6e6x 11/1/20 11:18:11 PM 11/1/20 11:18:11 PM Reply	Biden/Harris, eventually. I just hope the court interference or delays and potential violence from Trumpers does not get bad. tRump will create a lot of problems along the way. But, majority has to rule. But, I sure hope Another Scott has a more accurate prediction. Alex "There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." -- Isaac Asimov
Post #436,913 by mmoffitt 11/2/20 7:24:31 AM 11/2/20 7:24:31 AM Reply	I hope Scott's right, too. But Scott's prediction has embedded within it "the character of the American People" doing a lot of heavy lifting. I am therefore not optimistic. bcnu, Mikem It's mourning in America again.
Post #436,971 by Ashton 11/3/20 4:58:37 PM 11/3/20 4:58:37 PM Reply	GMTA.. the McGuffin in every matter, analysis paralysis needing unclogged-Brainz :-/
Post #436,914 by InThane 11/2/20 7:31:07 AM 11/2/20 7:31:07 AM Reply	We're fucked. Multiple scenarios: 1. Trump wins, Republicans keep the Senate. 2. Biden wins, Republicans keep the Senate. 3. Biden wins, Democrats gain the Senate Scenario 1, we're fucked. Scenario 2: Republicans sit on their hands and refuse to authorize anything. Any attempt to bypass them by executive order is suddenly found unconstitutional by a highly activist court. Two years later, Republicans run a successful media campaign about what an awful commie mutant traitor Biden & Harris are, and how they've failed America. 2024 Nehemiah Scudder wins the election and US democracy is over. We're fucked. Scenario 3: Trump fires the entire federal government in late November/early December. as soon as it becomes apparent he's lost. COVID-19 ravages the country with no strong central leadership to coordinate. Members of the 104th keyboard brigade mostly just make strong noises on teh intarwebs about how commie mutant traitors are taking over the country, but a few of them actually go into meatspace and start shooting liberals, and given that 30% of the country is part of the 104th keyboard brigade, a few is a lot more than we'd like. Police ignore them, administer beatdowns to PoC and liberals. Biden takes office, and due to the total shitshow that he has to rebuild from scratch is blamed for the utter destruction wrought by the prior admin. Nehemiah Scudder wins in 2024. We're fucked. use std::option::sig
Post #436,917 by drook 11/2/20 9:24:04 AM 11/2/20 9:24:04 AM Reply	Yeah, I've been thinking about what he'll do as a lame duck Assuming Biden is eventually recognized as the victor, no matter how long they draw it out there would be some amount of time where Trump is undeniably on his way out, but is also undeniably still in charge of very many things. Whether he takes that time to ratfuck the entire country on behalf of his own personal interests, or just to fuck the Democrats out of spite - or for that matter to fuck the Republicans out of spite - he will have the time and the authority to make an incalculable mess. -- Drew
Post #436,942 by Another Scott 11/2/20 5:11:04 PM 11/2/20 5:11:04 PM Reply	There are laws that constrain the transition. https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/09/despite-presidents-comments-transition-efforts-required-law-are-underway/168893/ Presidential transition efforts, as required by law, have been underway within the Trump administration for almost a year, despite President Trump’s recent non-committal to a peaceful changeover. [...] Despite the uncertainty over Trump’s intentions, the presidential transition, which is enshrined in various laws, began last November and, so far, the administration has met its statutory requirements, such as designating space to the Biden campaign, establishing a White House coordinating committee and council of agency transition directors and submitting reports to Congress six and three months ahead of the election. The first transition law was passed in 1963, but the process has evolved and grown lengthier over the years, especially after the 2000 election because the recount of Florida’s votes and Supreme Court case shortened the transition time, Ed Ingle, president of the consulting firm New Lantern partners who was the Cabinet coordination director for President George W. Bush’s transition in 2000, noted. [...] Lots of his minions are going to be looking over their shoulders, not wanting to end up under the microscope of Uncle Joe's Justice Department. I expect the criming to drop off rapidly after Tuesday. We'll see. Cheers, Scott.

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