IWETHEY v. 0.3.0 | TODO
1,095 registered users | 0 active users | 0 LpH | Statistics
Login | Create New User
IWETHEY Banner

Welcome to IWETHEY!

New 'Climate models have accurately predicted global heating, study finds Findings confirm reliability
projections of temperature changes over last 50 years'
Guardian


The findings confirm that since as early as 1970, climate scientists have had a solid fundamental understanding of the Earth’s climate system and the ability to project how it will respond to continued increases in the greenhouse effect. Since climate models have accurately anticipated global temperature changes so far, we can expect projections of future warming to be reliable as well.

The research examines the accuracy of 17 models published over the past five decades, beginning with a 1970 study and including 1981 and 1988 models led by James Hansen, the former Nasa climatologist who testified to the US Senate in 1988 about the impacts of anthropogenic global heating. The study also includes the first four reports by the UN’s intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC).

“We found that climate models – even those published back in the 1970s – did remarkably well, with 14 out of the 17 model projections indistinguishable from what actually occurred,” said Zeke Hausfather, of the University of California, Berkeley, and lead author of the paper.

Based on modern climate model projections, if countries follow through with current and pledged climate policies, the world is on track for about 3C of warming above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100 – a situation the IPCC and others predict would be catastrophic.

[. . .]



M.O. explained by Hausfather: [but there;s THIS]:
"Put simply, climate scientists are not in the business of predicting human fossil fuel consumption but are attempting to accurately simulate how the climate will change in response to a given rise in greenhouse gas emissions.

“Future emissions depend on human behaviour, not physical systems, and climate models should be evaluated on their physics rather than the future emission projections,” said Hausfather.


In nearly half of the model projections examined in the paper, the input scenarios were significantly different from the real-world changes in greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, projected temperature changes were only consistent with observed global warming in 10 of the 17 models, with four projecting more warming and three projecting less than subsequently occurred.

However, the study authors addressed these inconsistencies by evaluating the change in temperature per change in “radiative forcing” – the global energy imbalance caused by the increased greenhouse effect and other factors – in models against what happened in the real world. This metric reveals whether the climate models are accurately producing the temperature response to a given emissions change – in essence, whether are accurately simulating the physical response of Earth’s climate system. With this factored in, 14 of the 17 models were accurate.

The rate of warming we are experiencing today is pretty much exactly what past climate models projected it would be,” said Hausfather.



SO then, it's ALL about whether homo-sap IS? descended from lemmings, in which case.. ...
New "Accurate since the 70s?" That's really fricking weird, given that in the 1970s they...
...were screaming about how the coming Ice Age would kill us all, and now it's Global Warming. Both sets of predictions can't have been true at the same time.

Also:
The findings confirm that since as early as 1970, climate scientists have had a solid fundamental understanding of the Earth’s climate system...
Making that judgment presupposes that they now have a complete understanding of the system. How are they going to prove that?


And:
Since climate models have accurately anticipated global temperature changes so far, we can expect projections of future warming to be reliable as well.
a) Predictions can happen to be correct, for a while, even though they're based on a flawed model. Usually, though, after a while they aren't correct any more.

b) What's the time horizon on the predictions they're touting as correct? Probably not all from the actual 1970s, so mostly decidedly less than 50 years?
--

   Christian R. Conrad
The Man Who (used to think he) Knows Fucking Everything


Mail: Same username as at the top left of this post, at iki.fi
New That would be a devastating point ... if it were true
https://skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s-intermediate.htm

"1970s ice age predictions were predominantly media based. The majority of peer reviewed research at the time predicted warming due to increasing CO2."


Don't like that source? How about this one.

https://www.climate.gov/teaching/resources/70s-they-said-thered-be-ice-age

"Although some people think that scientists predicted global cooling in the 1970s, that is not the case. There were a few predictions of cooling, but the majority of climate scientists in the 1970s predicted warming, not cooling."
--

Drew
New Back in the 70's I was associating with . . .
. . various eco-freaks. There was one guy making the rounds preaching the coming ice age. He was a "one book wonder". He read a book, believed it was true, and rejected all other input. He was a "true believer" - reality could not impinge on his belief.
New Republican, was he?
bcnu,
Mikem

It's mourning in America again.
New No, he was just an eco radical.
The Republicans hadn't latched on to the climate thing yet, and the politics of the eco-freaks were still very local in those days.
New OK, could be that the Ice Age thing was exaggerated.
Still, as you say, that's what won the media war, so that's what we heard.

The other point still stands, though: "Our methods back then were flawed, but now they're correct." Sure, lord Kelvin, sure.
--

   Christian R. Conrad
The Man Who (used to think he) Knows Fucking Everything


Mail: Same username as at the top left of this post, at iki.fi
New No they weren't
The methods back then yielded mostly the right results. The results have gotten stronger.
--

Drew
     'Climate models have accurately predicted global heating, study finds Findings confirm reliability - (Ashton) - (7)
         "Accurate since the 70s?" That's really fricking weird, given that in the 1970s they... - (CRConrad) - (6)
             That would be a devastating point ... if it were true - (drook) - (5)
                 Back in the 70's I was associating with . . . - (Andrew Grygus) - (2)
                     Republican, was he? -NT - (mmoffitt) - (1)
                         No, he was just an eco radical. - (Andrew Grygus)
                 OK, could be that the Ice Age thing was exaggerated. - (CRConrad) - (1)
                     No they weren't - (drook)

Werd.
743 ms