Post #415,317
11/9/16 12:38:47 AM
11/9/16 12:38:47 AM
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Well that was unexpected. :-(
The polls were off something like 4-6%. That's a huge miss for a Presidential election. Since most people have CallerID, and nobody I know likes getting calls from strangers, it seems like the problem of phone polling is just going to get worse. What does this mean going forward? It also looks like Hillary will win the popular vote by a large margin... Cheers, Scott. (Who hopes Hillary's voters find a way to come out on top.)
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Post #415,318
11/9/16 12:42:27 AM
11/9/16 12:42:27 AM
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Re: Well that was unexpected. :-(
America, you done just fucked yourselves.
Enjoy.
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Post #415,327
11/9/16 7:30:11 AM
11/9/16 7:30:11 AM
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Unfortunately the rest of the world is going to have to get in line too
Regards,
-scott
Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
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Post #415,319
11/9/16 1:06:25 AM
11/9/16 1:06:25 AM
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obg heheheh, hillary landslide
sorry nother, look at the bright side. Midterms dems pick up. This is entirely the DNC fault. Offered us a candidate from a used condom and proclaimed it tastes like fresh shrimp. If you noticed that trump used the same campaign as (that bitch still owes me money) 2 Americas the elite and the rest... and won. He was a half assed dem for years. Get someone useful, dust him off get the grilf issues out up front and run them male/female in 4 years. always look out for number one and don't step in number two
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Post #415,320
11/9/16 1:15:35 AM
11/9/16 1:15:35 AM
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Some have been saying...
that a President Trump will not be as bad as we imagine. I believe this to be true only in the sense that he will be unimaginably worse. Nixon had G. Gordon Liddy; Trump is going to have people doing his wet work who will make Liddy look like Dietrich Bonhoeffer.
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Post #415,321
11/9/16 1:37:46 AM
11/9/16 1:37:46 AM
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Not entirely unexpected
The average American is a bigoted idiot with no common sense - always ready to vote against his/her best interests in response to slogans and flag waving. I am disappointed, yes, but not at all surprised.
The Democratic Party is completely devoid of balls - I've seen that for years. They haven't the slightest idea how to win an election - I've seen that over and over as they lose one easy election after another.
Their excuse is always, "we can't be rough on Republicans, we will have to work with them in Congress. No, you won't - because you won't be in Congress, you idiots.
The American people are going to be suffering - worse than they have been - and they deserve every bit of it.
Will this experience cause them to smarten up? Not one chance in Hell.
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Post #415,322
11/9/16 3:04:03 AM
11/9/16 3:04:03 AM
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Where are you looking? Google has Trump winning popular vote 48% - 47%
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Post #415,325
11/9/16 7:10:10 AM
11/9/16 7:10:10 AM
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Just mutterings on B-J.
I would glance at the numbers at various places, but didn't do any figuring on my own.
(sigh)
J has been furious at Hillary for nearly a year. She's still for Bernie.
My friend T in Dayton has been saying the most nasty things about Hillary for a year or more too. He was at the Trump rally in Dayton where some guy tried to rush the stage. He would have voted for Chuthlu over Hillary...
The polling was a disaster. Too many people made too many assumptions, plans, devised strategies, etc., assuming the polling was right. "Hey, Obama has record approval, the economy is doing well, women always pick the winner and women will turn out for Hillary, ..." Conventional wisdom was reinforced by the polls in a feedback loop.
This is our Brexit. A lot of people are going to be hurt, needlessly.
Hillary ran a very good campaign. I don't see that anyone else could have run a better campaign. Would someone else have won? Maybe, but I don't know who. Bernie? Tired old man who's been in Washington for decades with no real accomplishments to his name who can point and yell about Corruption™? No. O'Malley? A former city mayor and governor from a very blue state? No.
Biden? A man who has a history of running at the bottom of the pack, a man who has been a Senator for decades? No, but maybe he would have done better. Maybe. But, let's not forget, he didn't run for family reasons.
I'm furious at the press right now. NPR has had stories for the last 12 hours or so about Trump's policy proposals and how the world is freaking out about it with their tut-tut voices. The NYT and WP have screaming headlines about "Trump Triumphs". Where were the stories about policy over the last 12 months? Buried under a mountain of e-mails it seems...
I really thought that if the polling were off it would be because she did better than expected. I should have realized that something was wrong when a year or more ago there was talk about picking up 10+ seats in the Senate and over the last few months that had turned into just barely having a majority. Ticket-splitting doesn't happen much any more (if it ever did).
Maybe Donnie will be the nation's Jesse Ventura - a 4 year experiment never to be repeated. But a majority can do a huge amount of damage, especially when it can flip the SCOTUS on the first day...
Man, has 2016 sucked. And it's still not over yet!!
Box is right that we have an opportunity in 2018 and 2020 - this is all on the GOP now. But did we really have to burn the village in order to save it?
:-<
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #415,323
11/9/16 6:13:04 AM
11/9/16 6:13:04 AM
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Do you know what's going to be stranger?
Those assholes in the DNC who know more about what's good for us than we do will still be employed and unwavering in their service to the status quo, at least until they get bored and go into lobbying.
Real professionals... never got into policies at all. Of course, part of it was that Hillary was unsuitable for the job. The job is to lead the legislative branch in the direction that the executive branch promised the people. She's been in a blood feud with 3/4s of the legislative branch for decades. She couldn't lead them to free top shelf booze. But she WAS entitled as hell...
A thing done has an end. It's over.
Countries have an end as well. We'll see. "Religion, n. A daughter of Hope and Fear, explaining to Ignorance the nature of the Unknowable."
~ AMBROSE BIERCE
(1842-1914)
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Post #415,324
11/9/16 7:04:53 AM
11/9/16 7:04:53 AM
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Yep, Putin's Pussy won. :-(
Alex
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
-- Isaac Asimov
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Post #415,973
12/9/16 11:00:02 PM
12/9/16 11:00:02 PM
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CIA says Trump was Putin man in the election subversion effort.
WaPo: Secret CIA assessment says Russia aimed to help Trump winThe CIA has concluded in a secret assessment that Russia intervened in the 2016 election to help Donald Trump win the presidency, rather than just to undermine confidence in the U.S. electoral system, according to officials briefed on the matter.
Intelligence agencies have identified individuals with connections to the Russian government who provided WikiLeaks with thousands of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee and others, including Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, according to U.S. officials. Those officials described the individuals as actors known to the intelligence community and part of a wider Russian operation to boost Trump and hurt Clinton’s chances. Alex
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
-- Isaac Asimov
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Post #415,977
12/10/16 7:12:32 AM
12/10/16 7:12:32 AM
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CIA?
You mean the bunch, renamed in the Kennedy administration as "Couldn't Invade Abaline"? Are they still admitting to existence? I thought they quit government service and went into full time drug/arms dealing.
Hmmm... seems that's the entirety of government service now...
never mind... "Religion, n. A daughter of Hope and Fear, explaining to Ignorance the nature of the Unknowable."
~ AMBROSE BIERCE
(1842-1914)
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Post #415,991
12/13/16 7:40:36 AM
12/13/16 7:40:36 AM
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If the Russians wanted Trump to be President, does that mean ...
THEY were responsible for Hillary Clinton being the Democratic nominee? bcnu,
Mikem
Social Media is for Sociopaths.
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Post #415,994
12/13/16 9:36:43 AM
12/13/16 9:36:43 AM
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of course they would have preferred hillary
woman had no clue about securing communications, all they had to do was monitor family members email and anthony's wiener to get everything always look out for number one and don't step in number two
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Post #415,995
12/13/16 10:36:42 AM
12/13/16 10:36:42 AM
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They were not responsible for her being the nominee.
But, Putin had a score to settle with Hillary for her comments while SoS. Alex
"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."
-- Isaac Asimov
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Post #416,000
12/13/16 1:43:49 PM
12/13/16 1:43:49 PM
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Well they had to be happy that Trump was facing the only Democrat who could lose to him.
bcnu,
Mikem
Social Media is for Sociopaths.
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Post #415,326
11/9/16 7:10:44 AM
11/9/16 7:10:44 AM
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no more piss and vinegar here
This has taken the fight right out of me. For many years I've joked that 1976 should have taught me that my powers of political prognostication were imperfect ("Thank god we've seen the last of that clown," I said of Reagan after he failed to wrest the nomination from Ford in 1976), but obviously I didn't see this one coming—it's cold comfort to know that I had plenty of company. About the only element I got right was my prediction that Trump would not concede in the aftermath. Apart from that, I got nothin'.
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Post #415,378
11/10/16 1:27:30 PM
11/10/16 1:27:30 PM
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Re: no more piss and vinegar here
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Post #415,331
11/9/16 10:26:20 AM
11/9/16 10:26:20 AM
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While I did think it possible, I too, was surprised.
The Democratic Party's abandonment of labor finally came home to roost. I remain firmly of the view that Bernie would have won the general because his populist message resonated with all the marching morons in the same way that Trump's message did and Bernie's lack of a vile nature would have made significant numbers of Trump voters back him instead.
My hope is that the DNC finally figures out that if they ever want to become significant again, the path there does not lie through Wall Street and multi-nationals. I'm dubious that corrupt institution can figure that out in my lifetime, though. In any case, the real problem is not the top, it's the House and Senate. As long as the monied class has those two houses in a death grip, nothing much will improve. I hope our new President doesn't get impeached or fall ill because President Pence is the only thing that comes readily to mind of being close to as horrible as President Trump. And he might actually be worse. bcnu,
Mikem
I think religion should be treated with ridicule, hatred and contempt. And I claim that right.
Christopher Hitchens.
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Post #415,351
11/10/16 2:35:23 AM
11/10/16 2:35:23 AM
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You made this
If you voted for Trump, this is on you (but you're probably OK with that)
If you voted for J. Random 1% Of The Vote, this is on you.
If you didn't vote at all, this is on you.
You've got daughters. You had a duty to THEM to vote HRC, assuming you think women should have agency over their own bodies.
Trump is going to eviscerate or repeal the ACA, enable every polluter going, get played like a meat violin by China and Russia, give you a theocratic SCOTUS, and that's all just in the first 100 days. And yeah, even if the orange tiny-handed sex pest drops dead or is impeached right out of the Oval or gets sent to jail, that just gives you (and us, because we are the world etc) President Fucking Pence.
If you didn't vote Clinton, you made this.
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Post #415,354
11/10/16 8:05:19 AM
11/10/16 8:09:15 AM
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That kind of "reasoning" is how we ended up here.
If you didn't vote Clinton, you made this. You have that exactly ass backwards. If you voted for Clinton in the primary you made this. But I wouldn't expect a person from a country that is so fricking backward that it still has a monarch in the 21st century to understand that. The DNC made this with their bullshit Neo-Liberal Third Way Asshat candidates. HTH. Edit: BTW, one daughter voted for HRC, the other wrote in Bernie. So even THEY weren't convinced that a War Hawk should be the first representative of the fairer sex in the White House. bcnu,
Mikem
I think religion should be treated with ridicule, hatred and contempt. And I claim that right.
Christopher Hitchens.
Edited by mmoffitt
Nov. 10, 2016, 08:07:32 AM EST
Edited by mmoffitt
Nov. 10, 2016, 08:09:15 AM EST
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Post #415,366
11/10/16 11:21:47 AM
11/10/16 11:21:47 AM
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A monarch, and a functional healthcare system :)
And policing by consent, and better telly. But whatever. You're a bore on that topic, and you know it.
Blaming Trump on the DNC. Awesome job. As if Bernie could have won it. If you can't win the argument within the party, what on earth makes you think you can win it without?
You're basically the American version of the Corbynistas over here. They think their man (their old, white, rich man - how very different from the establishment norm, eh?) can win, basically because they sit around and agree furiously with each other.
(You'll probably say the DNC was all rigged and shit. Perhaps if BS had decided before now that he was a Democrat, the party might have been a bit more receptive.)
Sure, HRC was a weak candidate. She still managed to more-or-less take the popular vote.
The only practical alternative to HRC was Biden, but he ruled himself out. Shame.
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Post #415,367
11/10/16 11:33:54 AM
11/10/16 11:33:54 AM
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And fortunately a powerless monarch . . .
. . who's family provides wonderful and copious fodder for tabloids. What would England be without her?
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Post #415,369
11/10/16 11:41:03 AM
11/10/16 11:41:03 AM
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scotland, without a sense of humor
always look out for number one and don't step in number two
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Post #415,375
11/10/16 12:19:09 PM
11/10/16 12:19:09 PM
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Allow me to help you -- AGAIN.
If you can't win the argument within the party, what on earth makes you think you can win it without? This is a specious argument. The DNC is a RW organization who did everything they could (see WikiLeaks) to stifle Bernie's campaign. On the surface, it may appear that he could not have won because he was defeated by the Republican Lite Party, hence he would be unable to defeat the full-on batshit crazy Republican Party. But this argument misses the mark wildly. How? this campaign was different. The 15 usual suspects from the Republican Party were slain by an outsider with a Populist message. Certainly as they will soon discover, that was a con. But with Bernie it wasn't. The same message that appealed to the "basket of deplorables" (read: non-monied classes) would have been very well received by would-be Trump voters who would have chosen Bernie over Trump (there's anecdotal evidence of this fact everywhere if you care to look). Then, too, the millennials who sat out Tuesday (or wrote him in or voted third party) would have turned out and voted for Bernie. No question about it. The DNC and what Jerry Brown had called "The Democratic Party Elite" back in 1992 did not like Bernie's anti-bankster tone at all (the Bankster Class is where they get their dough, so can't have criticism of them [see Clinton's speeches to Goldman]). The DNC made damned sure a Corporatist Democrat was elected and there were enough useful idiots who believed "Hillary can get elected, so I'm voting for her" in the primaries that sealed this deal. Blaming anyone but the DNC for this train wreck is like blaming the person who yells "STOP!" and is ignored for the wreck. It's ironic that one of the criticisms from the Hillary camp about Bernie was that Bernie appealed only to White voters (it wasn't true, but then again, almost nothing the Clinton campaign said about Bernie or his supporters was true) since it was the White vote that was a big part of her losing the election. She even lost the White Female vote for Christ's sake. That wasn't the only reason she lost, but it was a big one. The main reason she lost was the Democrats didn't show up in the numbers that they have previously. Why show up to vote for yet another Corporate Clown? bcnu,
Mikem
I think religion should be treated with ridicule, hatred and contempt. And I claim that right.
Christopher Hitchens.
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Post #415,379
11/10/16 1:55:51 PM
11/10/16 1:55:51 PM
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blah, blah, blah.
That basically "it's not Bernie's fault he was only convincing to a minority of Democrats, it's everyone else's".
You backed the losing side of the losing side, but you're still convinced you're correct.
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Post #415,380
11/10/16 3:02:28 PM
11/10/16 3:02:28 PM
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I apologize. I should defer to you. You've lived in the Midwest for 30 years. Er, wait a second...
bcnu,
Mikem
I think religion should be treated with ridicule, hatred and contempt. And I claim that right.
Christopher Hitchens.
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Post #415,388
11/10/16 3:49:24 PM
11/10/16 3:49:24 PM
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What's that got to do with anything? Have you heard of the Internet?
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Post #415,394
11/10/16 4:16:00 PM
11/10/16 4:16:00 PM
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Oh sure. Because you really get to know people on the Internet. How old are you? 23? :0)
bcnu,
Mikem
I think religion should be treated with ridicule, hatred and contempt. And I claim that right.
Christopher Hitchens.
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Post #415,395
11/10/16 4:17:29 PM
11/10/16 4:17:29 PM
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What's that got to do with anything?
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Post #415,383
11/10/16 3:17:05 PM
11/10/16 3:17:05 PM
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"Why show up to vote for yet another Corporate Clown?"
Ummm...because the alternative is a home-grown fascist?
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Post #415,386
11/10/16 3:33:47 PM
11/10/16 3:33:47 PM
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I might have been overly optimistic about the upside to a Trump presidency.
If the below is any indication of the "lesson the DNC learned," it may well be that the Democratic Party is composed of complete and utter ineducables. But taking a closer look at the outcomes, it’s hard not to notice the importance of third-party voters and the impact they had on the outcome.
In Florida, Hillary Clinton lost by about 1.4% of the vote – but if Jill Stein’s supporters and half of Gary Johnson’s backers had voted Democratic, Trump would have lost the state.
Similarly, in Pennsylvania, Clinton lost by about 1.1% of the vote – but if Jill Stein’s supporters and half of Gary Johnson’s backers had voted Democratic, Trump would have lost the state.
In Wisconsin, Clinton lost by about 1% of the vote – but if Stein’s supporters had voted Democratic, Trump would have lost the state.
In Michigan, Clinton appears to be on track to lose by about 0.3% of the vote – but if half of Stein’s supporters had voted Democratic, Trump would have lost the state.
To be sure, this doesn’t apply everywhere. In North Carolina, for example, where Clinton was favored to win, Jill Stein wasn’t even on the ballot, and Gary Johnson’s vote totals were smaller than Trump’s margin of victory. Similarly, third-party voters couldn’t have swung Ohio or Iowa, two other states that President Obama carried twice ahead of Trump’s victory.
But it’s nevertheless true that in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, third-party voters had an enormous, Nader-like impact – had those states gone the other way, Clinton would be president-elect today, not Trump. http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/third-party-voters-played-key-role-election-resultsWith any luck, this kind of nonsense will have a short shelf life. We'll see. bcnu,
Mikem
I think religion should be treated with ridicule, hatred and contempt. And I claim that right.
Christopher Hitchens.
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Post #415,396
11/10/16 4:17:38 PM
11/10/16 4:17:38 PM
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"overly optimistic"
"I might have been overly optimistic about the upside to a Trump presidency." Ya think?
For the rest, the case may plausibly be made that Stein cost Clinton Michigan's electoral votes, which along with four dollars would have gone a long way toward a "triple-grande no-foam latte" at an Ann Arbor Starbucks. I do not see Johnson's supporters as yielding, in his absence, a significant harvest of Democratic voters. It seems unlikely that had the two minor candidates eloped to American Samoa in September and scuppered their campaigns, this would have materially affected Tuesday's results. Benen is usually smarter than this.
Nader in Florida sixteen years ago is another matter entirely, and there aren't enough lepers' sores in the world for him to bathe in expiation of that folly.
cordially,
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Post #415,398
11/10/16 4:27:00 PM
11/10/16 4:27:00 PM
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Yeah, Stein and Johnson aren't to blame.
Any more than "Bill the Cat" is.
There are reports out of Wisconsin (on Balloon-Juice) that 300,000 voters didn't have the proper IDs while the margin was something like 10% of that (the final numbers may have changed).
Bernie damaged Hillary and Trump ran with Bernie's rhetoric (and expanded on it).
But given that the polling in the important states was off by 4-5% or so, it's hard to see that any Democrat (or even Bernie, since he's not a Democrat) would have not also been very unpleasantly surprised. Investments are based on the poll numbers....
Polling is broken. Voter ID laws depressed the vote in too many important areas. Relentless "OMG!!1 e-mails!!11" stories and screaming about "Hillary's Corruption™" couldn't help but depress her turnout and swing the late deciding "undecided" people.
It would be good to know more about the exit polls that show Donnie winning the white women's vote - how on Earth did that happen?!?!?
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #415,402
11/10/16 4:45:59 PM
11/10/16 4:45:59 PM
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Still smokin' the DNC rope and refusing to learn, I see.
These mostly are middle- and low-income folks, people making less than $50,000 a year. While they make up some 80 percent of the U.S. population, exit polls on Nov. 7 found that for the first time they’ve fallen to less than half of the voting population. As the Clinton-Gore-Lieberman Democrats have jerked the party out from under this core populist constituency, pursuing the money and adopting the policies of the corporate and investor elite, the core constituency of the party has — big surprise — steadily dropped away. In 1992, the under-$50,000 crowd made up 63 percent of voters. In 1996, after Clinton and Gore had relentlessly and very publicly pushed NAFTA, the WTO and other Wall Street policies for four years, the under-$50,000 crowd dropped to 52 percent of voters. After four more years of income stagnation and decline for these families under the regime of the Clinton-Gore “New Democrats,” the under-$50,000 crowd dropped this year to only 47 percent of voters.
At the same time, those who are prospering under the Wall Street boom, cheered on by the policies of both the Republican and Democratic leadership, have become ever more enthusiastic voters. In 1996, voters with incomes above $100,000 (about 3 percent of the population), made up 9 percent of the turnout; this year, they were 15 percent of the turnout.
This rising income skew among voters causes both parties to push more policies that favor the affluent minority, which causes an even greater turn-off for the majority, which causes … well, you can see the downward spiral we’re in. This is especially damaging to Democrats, since the non-voters are their natural constituency. This constituency feels discarded, not only by the Democrats, but by the whole process.
...
Now it gets really ugly for the Gore campaign, for there are two other Florida constituencies that cost them more votes than Nader did. First, Democrats. Yes, Democrats! Nader only drew 24,000 Democrats to his cause, yet 308,000 Democrats voted for Bush. Hello. If Gore had taken even 1 percent of these Democrats from Bush, Nader’s votes wouldn’t have mattered. Second, liberals. Sheesh. Gore lost 191,000 self-described liberals to Bush, compared to less than 34,000 who voted for Nader. http://www.salon.com/2000/11/28/hightower/If we don't stop blaming third parties for the Clintonian Democratic candidates shortcomings and the misguided DNC policies, we will lose every election henceforth. bcnu,
Mikem
I think religion should be treated with ridicule, hatred and contempt. And I claim that right.
Christopher Hitchens.
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Post #415,403
11/10/16 5:14:15 PM
11/10/16 5:14:15 PM
|
Gore ran from Clinton. Gore was in the House 3 years before Bill was Governor.
If Gore had embraced Clinton rather than running from him (and picking Lieberman), it seems clear (to me) that he would have won his home state and would have won the election. Your counter-factuals don't change the fact that lots of people in Florida intended to vote for Gore but ended up voting for Buchanan due to the weird ballot. If those votes had been cast as they intended, and counted properly, Gore would have won.  There were lots of reasons why Gore lost (Lieberman, the butterfly ballot, being unable to crush the "inventing the internet" criticism, people being taken in by "Compassionate Conservatism" and "Reformer with Results" and "Humble Foreign Policy" and "No Nation Building" and all the rest. His somehow being a creature of the DNC (or the DLC, even) wasn't one of them. Oh, and he did win the popular vote, of course. Somehow Democrats winning the popular vote in 6 of the last 7 presidential elections is a sign of failure...  FWIW. Cheers, Scott.
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Post #415,407
11/11/16 8:08:41 AM
11/11/16 8:08:41 AM
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Aside sigh. I *WISH* my ballot looked like that. Not the punches, but all the parties.
bcnu,
Mikem
I think religion should be treated with ridicule, hatred and contempt. And I claim that right.
Christopher Hitchens.
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Post #415,433
11/11/16 7:11:05 PM
11/11/16 7:11:05 PM
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y'all want to wait for all of the ballots to be counted before declaring a win on the popular vote?
always look out for number one and don't step in number two
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Post #415,452
11/12/16 3:49:35 PM
11/12/16 3:49:35 PM
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AP Numbers.
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Post #415,397
11/10/16 4:19:53 PM
11/10/16 4:19:53 PM
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[blinking rotating text] Ya think?!?! [/blinking rotating text] (sheesh)
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