Statistics and probability can be fun.
Also counter-intuitive and mind-bending in ways that can be entertaining for onlookers.
I recently did some analysis of this sort of problem: Roll a dice. Keep rolling until you get a 1. How long are you likely to be doing that? Now make that 1 in 100. Or 1 in 1000.
Not surprisingly, the probability curve is the same shape, but it drops slower for the larger range. For 1 in 10, you have a 50% chance of rolling a 1 by the fifth roll. For 1 in 100, it's the 68th roll. But in both cases, the probability of it going ten times-longer is about 0.01%. :-)
Wade.
I recently did some analysis of this sort of problem: Roll a dice. Keep rolling until you get a 1. How long are you likely to be doing that? Now make that 1 in 100. Or 1 in 1000.
Not surprisingly, the probability curve is the same shape, but it drops slower for the larger range. For 1 in 10, you have a 50% chance of rolling a 1 by the fifth roll. For 1 in 100, it's the 68th roll. But in both cases, the probability of it going ten times-longer is about 0.01%. :-)
Wade.