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New Thanks for heads-up (I think..) 7 is no lucky number.
Wasn't aware that USGS did these simulations/duh. Need to do some exploring there.
This scenario, which involves rupture of two faults, is much less likely to occur than any of the magnitude 6.8 or magnitude 7.0 scenarios.
"Comforting", that. Sorta--it's such a natural line, those two.

As to what this quake did to stresses on Rodgers [???] Maybe they can/will extrapolate on the possible interactions, later.
Nicely scary simulations: if the twisting of Rte 101 is derived from some decent math: doom for many.
On view looking S. from S. Rosa: Valley of the Moon is off to left (E.) a bit; unclear if Petaluma distance is scaled;
anyway, a 7? my odds better than S. Rosa's (heavily damaged by SF 1906.)

So then.. in addition to the psychological + mobs problems: add-in and stir. Pretty sure my cinder-blocks weren't stabilized by re-bar + concrete
(if they even do that now.) I shall simply have to arrange to be outside in a field.
That'll do it :-)

Ed: Add Local map places moi exactly between this fault and Rodgers. Kenwood is 5 mi N. of Glen Ellen, there shown.
31% Probability/30 years re Rodgers. Unless this one changed that guess, too.
Expand Edited by Ashton Aug. 26, 2014, 04:12:03 AM EDT
New OK. Biggest problem is that you will virtually get no warning.
TV news had a segment yesterday talking how earthquake waves move at the speed of sound while a warning from a sensor can move at the speed of light. They also talked about how the number of sensors is increasing at a rapid pace.

Obviously, some distance from the epicenter is required to get a warning you can react to.
Alex

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-- Isaac Asimov
New And the speed of sound is faster in a solid (like the ground)
--

Drew
New Lots of interesting physics in earthquakes.
P-waves travel fastest and arrive first.

S-waves (shear waves) travel perpendicular to the P-wave.

They've worked out the physics of waves bouncing off the crust (to reflect around to the other side of the world) and off the core.

The Jiggling Earth - Or What are All Those Squiggles?

Cheers,
Scott.
New Well, the Model picks a spot way S. as epicenter for this simulation.
Whether that is random (I doubt) or from lore and expectation that that point is the likely confluence? can only suppose the latter. Unclear if the epicenter Must-be in the overlap portion of their common azimuth. These two faults don't overlap for much of their extent, so there's a clue.
Separate roulette re. either one, solo. (Throw in San Andreas' count-down timer for further tragicomic relief: beats any manufactured-Game.)

If.. in-time before the event: cheap warning devices proliferate--like current Weather-emergency VHF boxes--I can be outta this cottage at-the-speed of-Moi (shooing a cat or two if inside: that's Easy.) Similarly, should the numbers crunch such that Rodgers Creek's rupture-probability gets a huge boost? Well ... I have a fondness for science; it's fed me since sentience.

Anyway, depending on New-numbers, I might well abandon my creekside patch to the next wannabe-Gentry, take the mo-nay, abandon 97% of mere-Stuff and migrate. Digs are fungible; wherever you go--there You are. (RV types grok this, right?)



Superseding that Master-plan, of course is the feral pair--master trap-evaders both--they won't be abandoned. If they prove better trap-evaders than the trapper?
I guess we'll all go together when we go. {Fanfare}
(Not really worth worrying about, actually; may be an honourable-evasion of now expectable Barricade Duty--always messy, that.)
New Re: Digs are fungible; wherever you go--there You are.
Yep. "Home is where you park it."

Only yesterday talked to a couple that did that for 10 years.
Alex

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge."

-- Isaac Asimov
     6.0 Earthquake: American Canyon ~18 mi from >Moi< - (Ashton) - (13)
         Just saw the news and figured it was close! - (a6l6e6x) - (8)
             Rodgers Creek Fault seems the perp to watch here.. - (Ashton) - (7)
                 OK, here are the USGS's simulations of a 7.2 quake. - (a6l6e6x) - (6)
                     Thanks for heads-up (I think..) 7 is no lucky number. - (Ashton) - (5)
                         OK. Biggest problem is that you will virtually get no warning. - (a6l6e6x) - (4)
                             And the speed of sound is faster in a solid (like the ground) -NT - (drook)
                             Lots of interesting physics in earthquakes. - (Another Scott)
                             Well, the Model picks a spot way S. as epicenter for this simulation. - (Ashton) - (1)
                                 Re: Digs are fungible; wherever you go--there You are. - (a6l6e6x)
         Woke us up in the East Bay - (rcareaga) - (1)
             Thanks for the reminder.. - (Ashton)
         Up to 6.1 at the moment. - (Another Scott)
         Slept through it - (gcareaga)

A mindset is a terrible thing to waste.
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