Post #384,244
12/15/13 10:54:02 PM
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Gotcha quotes aren't evidence.
If you want to know what Viner and Hansen thought about climate science at various points, you should read their scientific articles, not what some popularizer said about them or what they said in partial quotes in a newspaper or a popular magazine.
E.g. Viner was a coauthor on this paper from 1999 - http://www.sciencedi...S0959378099000151
We describe a set of global climate change scenarios that have been used in a series of studies investigating the global impacts of climate change on several environmental systems and resources  ecosystems, food security, water resources, malaria and coastal flooding. These scenarios derive from modelling experiments completed by the Hadley Centre over the last four years using successive versions of their coupled oceanÂatmosphere global climate model. The scenarios benefit from ensemble simulations (made using HadCM2) and from an un-flux-corrected experiment (made using HadCM3), but consider only the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The effects of associated changes in sulphate aerosol concentrations are not considered. The scenarios are presented for three future time periods  30-year means centred on the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s  and are expressed with respect to the mean 1961Â1990 climate. A global land observed climatology at 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution is used to describe current climate. Other scenario variables  atmospheric CO2 concentrations, global-mean sea-level rise and non-climatic assumptions relating to population and economy  are also provided. We discuss the limitations of the created scenarios and in particular draw attention to sources of uncertainty that we have not fully sampled.
Sounds pretty careful to me.
I can't find a transcript of Hansen's June 10, 1986 testimony before that Senate subcommittee. All the "skeptic" sites point to newspaper articles. His famous 1988 paper and a recent discussion of its predictions is here - http://www.realclima...1988-projections/ - if you're interested.
That's pretty careful too. What do you find wrong with it?
If you want to know what the scientists have to say about their work on climate change, you really should read their work in their own words. You wouldn't take a fluff piece on Kernighan and Ritchie in a newspaper as indicative of the quality of their work on C, would you?
People who spend decades working on something generally aren't idiots. If something occurs to you in reading about these things, don't you think it also occurred to the people who spent years taking the data and weeks or months analyzing it and writing it up and satisfying reviewers before it was published? Look at the last page of Hansen's 1988 paper:
"Received January 25, 1988;
revised May 6, 1988;
accepted May 6, 1988.)"
Getting something published in a major journal is a long, painful process. Quackery is generally weeded out before the stuff shows up in print (of course, there are exceptions).
Hansen's work has held up very, very well. Don't believe the haters.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #384,247
12/15/13 11:44:53 PM
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Re: Gotcha quotes aren't evidence.
no they are not, however when the scientists in question confidently make predictions that are used by non scientists to push an agenda, they are fair game.
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
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Post #384,253
12/16/13 12:08:36 AM
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I'd like to see the quotes in context.
From personal experience with a reporter, it wouldn't be at all surprising if they missed important caveats.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #384,257
12/16/13 5:39:21 AM
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You still don't get it
There is no point reasoning with Bill about climate change because algore. If algore is behind it, then it must be false. And probably evil. Hell, he even gave you a great big clue in his post header a couple posts back.
I think the single most compelling piece of evidence for global warming is that Fox News viewers think it's a hoax.
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Post #384,260
12/16/13 7:53:56 AM
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Kinda-sorta...
He claims to accept that anthropogenic climate change is real, but he basically feels that Gore and Hansen (and now I guess Viner) are trying to spin it into a grift that will take all his money away.
Of course, the people who actually are making money off the current situation are the carbon-based fuels companies...
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #384,261
12/16/13 8:49:27 AM
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waitaminute a few posts ago Ash quoted an article
about no snow, that is what started this round, there is plenty of snow for everyone. Even tho Ash prolly watches the weather channel he still reports that lack of snow will cause economic damage to ski resorts. No mention that we and europe have a fuckton of it. That is reality rubbing against wishes, where did those wishes come from? Algore for one and the global warming industry whose economic model is gleaning our wallets.
Now if you can make commercials about penguins in the arctic and cry for funding to save polar bears quoting scientists as required to get that funding, I am entitled to point fingers and laugh.
You giving money to these people is no different than me giving political contributions to John Edwards but at least I can man up and say I fucked up.
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
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Post #384,263
12/16/13 10:54:36 AM
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It's not easy to move between threads here...
This is Ashton's post that you're talking about - http://forum.iwethey...iwt?postid=384153
The Commonwealth Club: Climate One
Thu, Dec 12, 2013 -- 8:00 PM
Audio currently not available for this program.
Mountain Meltdown -- Winter is coming. But is the season what it used to be? Tourism is one of the largest economic sectors worldwide, and one of the least prepared for climate change. The last decade was the warmest on record, and the U.S. winter tourism industry experienced an estimated $1 billion loss and up to 27,000 fewer jobs because of diminished snowfall. Without action to reduce emissions, analysts predict many ski centers will eventually be forced to close, especially those at lower altitudes. The remaining mountains will become more dependent on snowmaking, which will lead to higher energy use and potentially higher ticket prices. How can winter tourism sustainably adapt to climate change? What are industry executives, skiers and snowboarders doing to mitigate effects and prepare for long-term challenges? The program presents a two-part conversation with climate experts, a professional snowboarder and industry leaders from the Mountain Collective, which includes some of North America's most popular ski resorts.
Do you dispute that? (Note the qualifiers before answering. ;-)
A story from 2012 - http://switchboard.n...s_and_no_fun.html
Currently, only 16% of the country is covered in snow, a mere third of the normal snow coverage throughout the country according to the National Weather Service. This national trend has caused snow and ski resorts all over the country to feel the negative effects on everything from their profits to their jobs. A recent Bloomberg article discusses specific hits that Vail Resorts, Inc. has taken since the beginning of the winter season. Shares there have fallen 15% since December 23rd and the lack of snow has not even allowed them to open their back bowls for the first time in 30 years.
In Boone, North Carolina, a smaller town nestled in the high country of the Appalachian Mountains and home to Appalachian State University (ASU), residents are also feeling the pain of the snowless winter. ASU Professor Kristian Jackson, an avid back country skier, has yet to make one trip into the high country at this point in the season due to the lack of snow.
Etc.
We both know that weather isn't climate, but people aren't making up these reports of lack of snow in many resorts.
An interesting site showing northern hemisphere snowfall anomalies is here - http://climate.rutge..._month=1&ui_set=2 It doesn't seem to have data near the pole (unsurprisingly). Moving between years, it's obvious that there are temporal and regional variations so looking at a particular ski resort on a short time scale isn't terribly meaningful either way.
The long-term average trend (not shown here) is clear enough though...
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #384,266
12/16/13 1:57:37 PM
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Re: It's not easy to move between threads here...
The last decade was the warmest on record, and the U.S. winter tourism industry experienced an estimated $1 billion loss and up to 27,000 fewer jobs because of diminished snowfall I see one lie and an assertion
http://wattsupwithth...ent_1989-2010.png the graph is from the following dataset http://climate.rutge.../wkcov.nhland.txt
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
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Post #384,278
12/16/13 3:52:46 PM
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>You< could not assimilate ALL-the-data/in every assertion..
PERIOD.
Nor can most-anyone else. That which you regularly tar as guesses demonstrates ignorance of the means by which EVERY THEORY ever got formulated into words via which most intelligent persons can -at least- catch the drift of the underlying science:
1) That 'done' already/tested/'verified" ... [only-EVER!] ... to the extent that: all of the then-perceived Gotchas [about said 'Theory'] have been addressed.. When one of These prevails: then THAT Theory needs further work/or dismissal.
2) However beautiful the theory and its passing of obvious first tests, it is never the Last Word: that process for attacking its foundations remains as a major tool for the perpetual 'grazing of 'a field' for error-weeds, maybe missed n the euphoria of.. IT WORKS!
This is How science uses all means of ALL competent Players ... in a constant aim to minimize all biases of researchers (and nit-pickers.. and even of.. the utterly-clueless-but-LOUD.) Go back and review how Relativity was "received": by various gradients: from the Utterly-flummoxed/auto-didacts/on through the established, credentialed, authentic other pukka-Scientists.
(Many years later--when techno caught up--re A.E.) the gravitational-displacement of light from a distant star--by Sol: added yet another Proof of the basic-soundness of Relativity. And now the Proofs are too numerous for most people to carry them all around: in their heads. [It is still not to be The Last Word.]
SO YES: a "guess" IS the incubator for the early-on crafting of a tenable hypothesis ... the rest is mind-sweat-equity, usually in the hundreds of thousand (Wo-)Man-hours spent from the first Aha!!
The common-thread of all your nitpicks (most-all, anyway) is your snide self-assurance that You somehow stand atop the pile of researchers-who-stand-atop Giants--and see further and clearer "ahead".
Which is utter B.S.-bloviation and/or mere megalomania (?)
We have the Proofs of Relativity [which, indeed someday shall be supplanted]--as was Newton--by a more cohesive Grand Theory-to-be-Tested: with much better comprehension of the Graviton (say) and other problems 'twixt the Weak-force the Strong-force etc. etc.
(Amateurs too have contributed Lots--especially in Astronomy, where their contributions are obvious even to the barely-informed.) All 'Theories' Grand- or ho-hum- achieve their Proof/or do-Not achieve their Proof--via subsequent testing as Takes Time.
As to a matter which Can/Will/is-already-doing: Alter the basic Earth environment, in ways almost entirely detrimental: not just to our pig-headed, mindlessly energy-wasteful species, but for ALL species, and especially mammals:
To Wait For a very-high-Confidence-level of Proof before Taking This Seriously: IS NOT EVEN A SERIOUS OPTION--to any but the befuddled, the manically-egoistic and the deranged. Had you even the training, years of experience doing authentic Science (not scientism) and other veritable-Chops
--your "take' on the entire Topic and how, currently it is being addressed is no more incisive-thus-Useful than.. a teaPartier ranting that a zygote should get a vote to kill its Host-live-person-on-"Principle".
DON'T YOU YET SEE ANY OF THIS? Manifestly you are not stupid, nor incapable of accurate thought, but your sniping is too damn close to the level of the aforementioned folks who will kill Doctors to Save a Zygote--and after the sucker is birthed, say: Fuck 'im; let the tyke pull self up by own bootstraps. Because Self-Sufficiency/Responsibility and ... the sociopath makers of stupid-ignorant slogans.
You Don't Get No Respect for emulating some of the prime-idiots ever to appear-and-be-quoted ... since hieroglyphics got invented. Not in 2013 when all the meeja are replete with people who should be barred-for-liff from ever using a fucking microphone. Your tack evokes those and nothing so sublime as Don Quixote
..or that (recent, relatively) Russki General who kept his finger off the Retaliate-button when all around him believed that a handful of US missiles had launched. THIS HAPPENED. One Man saved us-all from our paranoia. Next time..???
THERE's Our Hero and not just of, the former-Soviet Union--amongst the naysayer-Class.
Call me when ya gots yer Meteorology chops/validated by more than internal-mental-processes, 'K?
IMO, merely: you are NOT immune from the cumulative effects
of %time spent with My Gramma/and on that plethora of modrin junk sites ... aimed at the disenfranchised of all stripes.
We Are the 'impressions' we willingly seek-out.
I, feeling nibbled-to-death by your incessant schizophrenic ducks. Quack, Quack--yourself!
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Post #384,290
12/16/13 8:42:37 PM
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of course not
but even a schmoo like me can look at this table of snow coverage
http://climate.rutge.../wkcov.nhland.txt
and see that we aint doing as bad as that pdf you quoted. The only assertion I make is we dont have enough facts to swirl theories on results of possible warming. All of the carbon being released isn't accounted for in the atmosphere so it must be going somewhere, probaly not in a good place. Keep sciencing away. Declaring that climate change is irrevocably making snow scarce when that is clearly not the case doesn't make the other potentially realistic outcomes seem realistic so to speak.
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
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Post #384,304
12/16/13 10:04:36 PM
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Well then: guess we just watch TV, wait and see. Good plan.
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Post #384,307
12/16/13 10:15:10 PM
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better than burning up 50 years of gdp in 5 years for no
discernible gain. How about some r@d money for carbon sequestration since we cant afford to stop burning it?
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 58 years. meep
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