http://money.cnn.com...posal_effect/#not

Who might not be affected much if at all by the deduction? Many low-income and uninsured people.

According to Treasury Department and White House estimates, the proposal would reduce the number of uninsured by 3 million to 5 million people. That number is low relative to the total number of uninsured (over 46 million) for two reasons primarily:

- 43 percent of the uninsured have no income tax liability, according to Kaiser Family Foundation. But they would still get a payroll tax credit on the wages they earn if they buy health insurance.

- Many uninsured still won't be able to afford coverage even with the new deduction. (More than 50 percent of the uninsured are in the 15 percent tax bracket or less). Others won't want to part with the cost of insurance premiums up front, even though they'll get it back on their tax return.

To provide more of the uninsured with coverage, President Bush is also proposing the Affordable Choices Initiative. Although details are still sketchy, the program would offer funding to states that reform their insurance market so as to provide affordable basic coverage for all.

The federal funds would be redirected from other programs to help states subsidize coverage for low-income people.


So, no new money for more-universal coverage. Unsurprisingly, the program would have done almost nothing to expand coverage.

The part of the program that was fleshed out won't help 43% of those without insurance. The part that would supposedly help those who don't earn enough for the tax break to help is left as a magic asterisk. Some TBD "funding for our program with the nice name" to the states is exactly the same as expanded Medicaid eligibility.

Yeah, it was just as good as Obamacare. To think we could have had that years ago!!111

<sigh>

Cheers,
Scott.