http://www.nytimes.c...awal-in-2014.html

KABUL, Afghanistan — The United States and Afghanistan have reached an impasse in their talks over the role that American forces will play here beyond next year, officials from both countries say, raising the distinct possibility of a total withdrawal — an outcome that the Pentagon’s top military commanders dismissed just months ago.

American officials say they are preparing to suspend negotiations absent a breakthrough in the coming weeks, and a senior administration official said talk of resuming them with President Hamid Karzai’s successor, who will be chosen in elections set for next April, is, “frankly, not very likely.”

“The time to conclude for us is now,” the administration official said on Friday. In the absence of a deal, “this fall, we are going to have to make plans for the future accordingly.”

[...]

Many contentious matters in the talks have already been settled, like legal immunity for American troops, which is what scuttled the Iraq deal, Afghan and American officials said. Yet officials on both sides say two seemingly intractable issues remain.

The first is Afghanistan’s insistence that the United States guarantee its security, much like any NATO ally, and the second is Mr. Karzai’s refusal to allow American forces to keep searching in Afghanistan for operatives of Al Qaeda. Instead, he has proposed that the United States give its intelligence information to Afghan forces and let them do the searching, said Aimal Faizi, a spokesman for the president.

American officials have rejected both Afghan proposals. The security pact is especially problematic, they say, because it could legally compel American forces to cross the border into Pakistan, resulting in an armed confrontation with an ally — and a nuclear-armed power.

“The deal is like 95 percent done,” said another American official in Washington, “and both sides are holding out.”

Mr. Faizi said Mr. Karzai was now taking a lead role in the talks. But, he cautioned, the Afghan leader could not agree to a deal that allowed American forces to raid Afghan villages and not at the same time go after militant havens in Pakistan.

Obama's not going to let the DOD be AFG's military after 2014, and he's certainly not going to have Americans there and say al Qaeda is off-limits.

Having them all come home (and sooner rather than later) would be a good thing.

Karzai seems to be reading off the 2011 Republican playbook without, like the Rs, realizing that Obama turned the page long ago. He's not going to win this.

Cheers,
Scott.