Not BS: I can believe that, that which He says They 'Know' (not surmise/think-probable, and other weasel-words)
they Know--to a high confidence-level--by all Non-BS definitions of that phrase. Because assuredly there Shall be Inquests after whatever next occurs (here and There) Occurs.

What he does not claim to 'Know'/and how could he? is just exactly What might be an appropriate scenario of punishment/message-sending???
--appropriate to All those inherent Risks, given the fate of 'Arab Spring'?, given the nastiness still that is Egypt, given the Venn-chart of All M.E. National intrigues including Israel--as Always:
a diagram perfectly suited to the puzzle-makers/solvers of the IGM.

If that wasn't an honest speech: I doubt we could discern one if such a thing next bit us on the nose.
I find no fault in his Not-attempting Guesses as to how-next 'we ought to move': that would have made the speech a Sales Talk. Maybe with Power-Punt ... subliminal/imagined on some whiteboard.

Maybe, as in War Games the "only way to win this game is Not to Play."
Clearly that is the risk-free POV for doing Nothing. Same as in Rwanda, East Timor ... ... [see List.]
I no insanely-Perfect solutions, nor, I wot: does The Admin/Congress, bloviators et alia, but we Shall hear n+n³ opinions, for a very long time.

Meanwhile, I watch with the rest.