It's so much easier for political reporters to build a narrative in their heads, to hang out with the people they have always hung out with, etc., than to do the grunt work of seeing what's going on in the parties in the states.
I think one thing we can count on, no matter how inconvenient it is, that the personalities of politics will be unpredictable in the next 20 years or so.
I could be wrong, though... :-/
Cheers,
Scott.