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New As an excuse it is likely
China taking the "over-reach by local officials" as an excuse seems likely if China wants to back down. However, this is far to important and contested an issue to actually believe that it is accidental. I think it is much more likely that China did this intentionally to see how other Asian countries, the UN and the US would respond.

Jay
New He follows up.
It seems to be more about agitators claiming islands than transit of ships.

http://www.theatlant...ouncement/265791/

[...]

Soon thereafter Peter Lee, who writes the China Matters blog, forwarded me the Chinese-language transcript of a Q-and-A at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In that session, the (Chinese) reporter asked about a change in policy toward "foreign fishing boats" ([...]), not seaborne traffic in general. But the spokesman's answer -- spokesmen have the same skills worldwide! -- was vague.

Lee follows with a very detailed parsing of what is known, and not, about the thinking behind the new Chinese policy, based on available Chinese-language texts. I offer it for two reasons: For people following the substance of this dispute, it should be interesting; and for everyone else, it helps illustrate the ongoing difficulty of being sure exactly what "signals" different parts of the Chinese government are sending to the outside world (and to other groups in China) and why. Lee writes, starting with the "fishing boat" question:

[...]


Interesting.

Cheers,
Scott.
     China steps up claims on South China Sea - (jay) - (10)
         Crap. - (mmoffitt)
         I know, I know... - (folkert) - (5)
             Strait_of_Malacca - (boxley) - (2)
                 So? -NT - (drook) - (1)
                     Exactly my point. - (folkert)
             Complex question - (jay) - (1)
                 "because we always have" is probably the answer. - (folkert)
         Fallows' take. - (Another Scott) - (2)
             As an excuse it is likely - (jay) - (1)
                 He follows up. - (Another Scott)

All gravitas is local.
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