The kid is not in control

Post #354,926 by crazy 3/1/12 7:08:40 AM Reply	The kid is not in control He's a mouthpiece. The generals sure as hell don't want to be the focal point. It's got to be a shitty position, waiting for the US government to assassinate you.
Post #354,928 by Another Scott 3/1/12 8:06:40 AM Reply	The generals only have legitimacy via Kim. Their whole political edifice is based on the Kim Il Sung bloodline. If he's not there, the military's legitimacy crumbles. He has power based on that. Now, granted, he's unlikely to be calling all the shots. But he (and his entourage) have quite a bit of power... Cheers, Scott.
Post #354,929 by crazy 3/1/12 8:11:18 AM Reply	In the beginning, yes But now? Yes, he's a hell of a mouthpiece because of the bloodline. But in a country where the merest word can put you in a contraception camp it really doesn't matter who's on top. No one is sticking their head up for it to get chopped off. In order to fight back, you have to organise. To organise, you have to let it be known you are against the status quo. And then they kill you! If he dies they could put an imposter in and no one that matters will know.
Post #354,930 by Another Scott 3/1/12 8:13:41 AM Reply	Maybe. Time will tell.
Post #354,932 by crazy 3/1/12 8:15:24 AM Reply	How would you know? If he gets killed and replaced, we'll never see it.
Post #354,933 by Another Scott 3/1/12 8:22:29 AM Reply	I mean big picture-wise. If the nuclear stand-down and inspections go forward, and tensions ease, and contacts improve, ..., then it would seem to indicate that something positive happened as a result of the youngster taking over. If, on the other hand, the cycle of apparent concession-but-no-real-change followed by missile launches and attacks on SK and so forth start up again, then it would indicate that nothing much has changed even with the kid in charge. Dictators often die non-violently. I don't expect him to be different. Time will tell. Cheers, Scott.
Post #355,918 by crazy 3/28/12 5:33:29 PM Reply	Told you! http://www.bbc.co.uk...rld-asia-17542436
Post #355,920 by Another Scott 3/28/12 5:46:19 PM Reply	It's just "suspended" at the moment. You may end up being right, and history tells us you're likely to be right, but there's still time for NK to back down before the planned for around April 15. http://rt.com/news/n...space-rocket-403/ They say they'll "never" give up the launch, but who knows - http://rt.com/news/n...-firm-launch-593/ Cheers, Scott.
Post #355,921 by crazy 3/28/12 6:10:28 PM Reply	Past performance is no guarantee of future performance But it's the best we to go on.
Post #356,286 by crazy 4/9/12 3:42:23 AM Reply	Tick tick tick (rattle) http://www.telegraph...ocket-launch.html
Post #354,934 by crazy 3/1/12 8:23:39 AM Reply	Also, lessening control is ALWAYS bad for those in power Any dictator or junta knows that depending on how bad they treated the population will eventually turn around on them. So their goal is to get harsher and harsher, hoping to kill, outlast their opponents or die a natural death, which means at that point they WIN. In the case of some place like Burma, it may have sounded bad, and sure, I would never want to live under such a regime, but they don't have 1/2 the country filled with slave farms to send you if you annoyed them. They had a chance of coming out OK, especially since they didn't kill or fill their prisons with political prisoners. They had about a 1,000 at any given moment under arrest. And they were not known for actively killing them. On the other hand, Assad KNOWS what happens if he allows any power change. Same thing that happened to Hussain, Khadafi, Tito, the czars, (you get the point). So he's digging in. And his level of power is nothing compared to the NK generals.
Post #354,937 by Another Scott 3/1/12 8:31:08 AM Reply	Hard and fast rules don't work. Look at the Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, etc. Authoritarianism doesn't have to increase indefinitely. Even in China the (very slow) trend has been to loosen up over time. Assad's regime is doomed - agreed. Eventually. The time when massacring thousands of people in your country as a successful policy to retain power is over. But he, personally, may die in his sleep. NK isn't Syria. They have a chance to liberalize via the Chinese model. And they have a lot of incentives to move toward integration with the South. Trouble is, their ideology wrt the South has been so poisonous it may take a generation for their policies to change. FWIW. Cheers, Scott.
Post #354,939 by crazy 3/1/12 8:36:33 AM Reply	How long is a generation and how old are you? Very unlikely I'll be seeing it.
Post #354,940 by Another Scott 3/1/12 10:11:35 AM Reply	18-20 years (average female reproduction time). It's taken China a long time (in earnest in 1984 and still happening today; political reforms are still very minimial). It's taken South Korea less time (their latest Constitution was adopted in 1988 and their political reforms were farther reaching). Don't misunderstand - it's going to be a slow process. But I think the latest news is promising. When leaders decide to change policies, liberalization can happen very quickly. Cheers, Scott.
Post #354,941 by mmoffitt 3/1/12 11:03:58 AM Reply	Like in Egypt? ÂThey are serving the Americans, just like Mubarak before them did,Â says Mohamed Adel, a Cairo security guard, of Egypt's military rulers. ÂIf these Americans were hurting Egypt, they should stand in court and face justice, not run away with the help of the Army.Â http://www.csmonitor...-ban-on-Americans Hearts and minds and all that. :0(
Post #354,945 by Another Scott 3/1/12 11:59:39 AM Reply	I'm no expert, but military's been running Egypt since '52. Nasser was an Army colonel. The system won't really change in Egypt until the military gives up power. Kicking Mubarak out wasn't really a change there. Not yet, anyway. Yeah, "hearts and minds" is hard. Especially when it's not done very well... Cheers, Scott.
Post #355,025 by pwhysall 3/5/12 1:25:31 AM Reply	point of order re: Tito He died of old-age related medical problems at the age of 87.
Post #354,943 by lincoln 3/1/12 11:14:41 AM Reply	what's a "a contraception camp"? think you meant "concentration camp". "Chicago to my mind was the only place to be. ... I above all liked the city because it was filled with people all a-bustle, and the clatter of hooves and carriages, and with delivery wagons and drays and peddlers and the boom and clank of freight trains. And when those black clouds came sailing in from the west, pouring thunderstorms upon us so that you couldn't hear the cries or curses of humankind, I liked that best of all. Chicago could stand up to the worst God had to offer. I understood why it was built--a place for trade, of course, with railroads and ships and so on, but mostly to give all of us a magnitude of defiance that is not provided by one house on the plains. And the plains is where those storms come from." -- E.L. Doctorow
Post #354,953 by crazy 3/1/12 1:41:40 PM Reply	It's a typo
Post #354,961 by malraux 3/1/12 5:33:03 PM Reply	Something the Republicans are setting up with the Bishops Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
Post #354,964 by lincoln 3/1/12 7:19:12 PM Reply	+1 ! "Chicago to my mind was the only place to be. ... I above all liked the city because it was filled with people all a-bustle, and the clatter of hooves and carriages, and with delivery wagons and drays and peddlers and the boom and clank of freight trains. And when those black clouds came sailing in from the west, pouring thunderstorms upon us so that you couldn't hear the cries or curses of humankind, I liked that best of all. Chicago could stand up to the worst God had to offer. I understood why it was built--a place for trade, of course, with railroads and ships and so on, but mostly to give all of us a magnitude of defiance that is not provided by one house on the plains. And the plains is where those storms come from." -- E.L. Doctorow

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