Data point: Mobiles Please's numbers are complete bollocks.
No-one in the UK had heard of them until this story.
Job done, I suppose.
Orange, Vodafone and Three all have the Lumia in their top sellers. I trust carriers more than analysts.
BTW, whether WP7 fails or not, get used to it; Metro is coming in Windows 8, and you will use Windows 8 at some point, whether at home or work.
Personally, I can't wait. I think Metro looks and feels great. I like my Xbox a lot more since it got Metro-ised. (Well, that, and the Channel 4 On Demand app)