Don't think so.

The models are continuing to predict that it'll pass right over NYC. The 5 pm update shows it as a Tropical Storm over CT at 1 pm Sunday.

http://www.wundergro...ters/article.html

Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.

Even though Irene continues to weaken, it's still a huge storm with a lot of water. Bloomberg's doing the right thing.

Cheers,
Scott.

Post #346,798 by Another Scott 8/26/11 7:17:31 PM Reply	Don't think so. The models are continuing to predict that it'll pass right over NYC. The 5 pm update shows it as a Tropical Storm over CT at 1 pm Sunday. http://www.wundergro...ters/article.html Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20% chance that a 3 - 4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 am probabilistic storm surge map from NHC shows a 20 - 30% chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor (Figure 4.) Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend's high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal. Even though Irene continues to weaken, it's still a huge storm with a lot of water. Bloomberg's doing the right thing. Cheers, Scott.
Post #346,805 by folkert 8/26/11 10:18:30 PM Reply	We shall see.
Post #346,817 by drook 8/27/11 9:25:36 AM Reply	Doesn't work that way It's the right thing or the wrong thing to do. We don't have to wait until afterwards to see if it was the right thing. Is wearing your seat belt the right thing to do? Of course it is. If you go off the road into a river and the belt jams and you die because you can't get out, it was still the right thing to do, given what you knew at the time. -- Drew

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