Post #346,781
8/26/11 12:57:54 PM
|
Irene weakening, but huge storm surge possible.
http://www.wundergro...ters/article.html
With its eyewall collapsed and just 24 more hours over water before landfall, it is unlikely Irene will have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, and a rapidly weakening Category 1 hurricane at its second landfall in New England on Sunday. However, since Irene is such a huge storm--tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center--it has set a massive amount of the ocean's surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 9:30am EDT this morning, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 1) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene rated a 5.1 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have. While this damage potential should gradually decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene's winds. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 pm Saturday night and 8 am Sunday morning. At those times, Irene is expected to be near the NC/VA border, then close to Long Island, NY, respectively. Thus, storm surge damage rivaling that experienced during Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is likely in northern NC, southern Maryland, and up Chesapeake Bay on Saturday night. It looks like Irene will pass New Jersey during low tide, which may limit the storm surge inundation to 3 - 6 feet there. Coastal New England from New York City to Massachusetts may also see storm surges characteristic of a Category 1 hurricane during Sunday morning's high tide, even if Irene has weakened to a tropical storm. I continue to give a 20% chance that a storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday.
Fingers crossed...
Cheers,
Scott.
|
Post #346,783
8/26/11 3:20:29 PM
|
Sounds like Ike
the damage, because of the surge, was way more than we were expecting from "just a cat 2".
|
Post #346,785
8/26/11 5:12:45 PM
|
Yup. Water is the big buggaboo.
Here's a neat interactive storm surge map - http://www.nhc.noaa....sk/index.shtml?gm
Dunno how accurate it is, but it gives low-lying people something to think about.
A Cat 1 maximum storm surge would put DCA and the southern third of DC under water.
Cheers,
Scott.
|
Post #346,787
8/26/11 5:24:23 PM
|
Looks like they're afraid to show us Cat 5
--
Drew
|
Post #346,789
8/26/11 5:33:48 PM
|
I noticed that too....
|
Post #346,792
8/26/11 5:55:21 PM
|
You have to back out and go back in . . .
. . then select Cat5
|
Post #346,794
8/26/11 6:40:19 PM
|
And, besides all the biped matters--
http://www.animallea...ml?autologin=true
Heartening that animal rescue has Learned the lesson of New Orleans, with some help from actual law changes re. including rescuees' pets--during and after.
Are you prepared for Hurricane Irene? Make sure you and your pet are safe! Get disaster preparedness tips and see current "News from the Hurricane Zone" along with advisory and tracking maps (right). Please share this with other pet owners you may know!
Our Rescue Efforts: Emergency Rescue Teams Being Deployed
We are continually reaching out to local authorities and shelter and rescue partners, in Hurricane IreneÂs anticipated path, and are offering significant support to help animal owners and shelters in need.
At least five of our Emergency Rescue Teams are being deployed to designated areas on Long Island, New York in anticipation of IreneÂs effects.
Our largest Mobile Rescue Unit will be staged in Uniondale, NY at Mitchell Field, set up as one of Nassau CountyÂs Emergency Disaster shelters. As people arrive at that shelter with pets, the Animal League will be on hand to help them.
Another Mobile Rescue Unit will rescue animals from a Long Island shelter partner and transport them back to our Port Washington, NY facility.
Additional Mobile Rescue Units, loaded with food, medication and supplies, will be staged at shelter partner facilities across Long Island to provide added capacity and resources to help any animals displaced by Irene.
Long Island coastal communities are more heavily populated during the summer months, and are at high risk of being impacted by storm surges and flooding.
Our Emergency Rescue Team will monitor the hurricane and be on call round-the-clock, to conduct local rescues as necessary, pulling animals out of crowded shelters to open space in anticipation of animals being displaced by Irene. We will continue to offer our support after the hurricane passes.
The Animal League will continue to provide important updates on Hurricane Irene and we ask all of our supporters to remain as prepared as possible, to keep family and pets safe.
Donate now to help support our Emergency Rescue efforts.
|
