Post #344,897
7/18/11 11:14:50 AM
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It's just a reaction
And this is a talking point that keeps pointing the finger at wall street and trying to forgive fannie...
Most of what you see as absolving Fannie May is actually just a reaction to people trying to lay the entire blame at Fannie May's feet. Fannie May made the bubble bigger then it should have been, and deserves blame for that. But they neither caused the bubble nor where they party to the worst excesses of the bubble.
More over, most of the people trying to place the blame on Fannie May are directing at the wrong end. Driven by an ideological opposition to government anti-poverty programs, they put the blame at Fannie May's program to encourage home ownership. In truth, loans created through this program had a lower then average default rate. It was the third party sub-prime loans that Fannie May purchased from Wall Street that got them in trouble.
Jay
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Post #344,898
7/18/11 11:19:24 AM
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They made that market, however
they made it bigger and they validated it.
No, it wasn't all their fault. They were equally as complicit, however. I think some folks would like us to think they were somehow "duped".
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
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Post #344,899
7/18/11 11:35:22 AM
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You're inventing positions so you can argue against them
I don't see anyone saying Fannie Mae was duped. You invented that so you could deny it.
But back to what seems to be your main point: Fannie's entrance into the mortgage backed securities market "made it legitimate". What precisely does this mean, and why does it matter?
You acknowledge that "wall street created the market for mbs", so apparently no one was waiting for Fannie's "legitimacy" to do what they were doing. Did this "legitimacy" help them sleep better at night after doing it? Or did it in fact change someone's behavior?
What, specifically and with numbers, changed after Fannie "made it legitimate"?
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Drew
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Post #344,901
7/18/11 11:51:52 AM
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The government was doin' it...
Let's go all in and make JAZZ HANDS amounts of money!
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Post #344,902
7/18/11 2:12:17 PM
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Re: You're inventing positions so you can argue against them
look at growth curves on issuances of MBS and CDS.
Notice when the rate of growth really took off.
Then go back and compare to the date that Fannie came into the market.
Coincidence? Hardly.
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
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Post #344,904
7/18/11 2:52:18 PM
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create a market then legislate that the government enters it
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
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Post #344,905
7/18/11 3:44:22 PM
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Hmm...
Still blaming Fannie. Can't say I'm surprised.
http://www.calculate...e-and-bubble.html
But they didn't like losing their market share, and they pushed the envelope on credit quality as far as they could inside the constraints of their charter: they got into "near prime" programs (Fannie's "Expanded Approval," Freddie's "A Minus") that, at the bottom tier, were hard to distinguish from regular old "subprime" except--again--that they were overwhelmingly fixed-rate "non-toxic" loan structures. They got into "documentation relief" in a big way through their automated underwriting systems, offering "low doc" loans that had a few key differences from the really wretched "stated" and "NINA" crap of the last several years, but occasionally the line between the two was rather thin. Again, though, whatever they bought in the low-doc world was overwhelmingly fixed rate (or at least longer-term hybrid amortizing ARMs), lower-LTV, and, of course, back in the day, of "conforming" loan balance, which kept the worst of the outright fraudulent loans out of the pile. Lots of people lied about their income (with or without collusion by their lender) in order to borrow $500,000 to buy an overpriced house in a bubble market. They weren't borrowing $500,000 from the GSEs.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #344,911
7/18/11 5:52:04 PM
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You still don't get it.
And congrats on at least attempting to be binary with me...but it won't work. Fannie was complicit. Equally at fault. They legitimized the practice...and made the market so that the really bad loans (and no, they were at least in the clear with those) would have a huge pile of not so bad loans to bundle into these instruments. The fact that they were on the margin with their own practices...and largely ignoring the practice of lenders in not validating income..or using phantom income, and buying those loans as well (even though they will make the list as "good" loans in many cases)...the driver for this is in your quote...they COULD NOT LOSE MARKET. If the market is all in bad loans...buying into that market meant buying into bad loans.
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
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Post #344,913
7/18/11 6:29:03 PM
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Don't agree. But we're talking past each other.
Fannie and Freddie were still constrained by regulations that the Wall Street banks, and CountryWide, and Joe the Mortgage Broker, weren't. You know this.
Also, CR (and the late Tanta) knows this topic backwards and forwards and has no ax to grind. I trust his take on it.
In closing, you might want to read this 2008 interview with the inventor of mortgage backed securities, Lew Ranieri, to see his take - http://www.businessw...4091040380049.htm
Why did it go wrong?
When interest rates go up and refinancings end, the industry has to contract. It's never fun. But at the end of the last cycle in 2004-05, all of a suddenÂand some of us think not accidentallyÂinstead of normal contraction we had this amazing growth of the subprime industry. It distributed the benefit of homeownership to people who never would have qualified for mortgages otherwise.
Is that how the industry rationalized exotic loans?
That was one of the excuses. In the name of trying to enfranchise everybody, we started creating unstable loans that were designed to blow up in two years. Now the loans need the tooth fairy to keep up their values.
Why did that happen?
There's an old Wall Street adage that there's a nexus between fear and greed. If you diminish fear, you get more greed. People got braver issuing this stuff. All the participants felt they could act merely as agents and collect fees. Nobody was prepared to say "I have liability."
Emphasis added.
Fannie Mae's market share fell in 2004-2005 because of ARMs - http://www.washingto...005051102030.html
To a point, housing finance experts agreed with Fannie that its drop in market share was attributable to the proliferation of adjustable-rate mortgages. They noted that Fannie typically does not buy adjustable-rate loans from retail mortgage lenders because the lenders generally do not want to sell them.
But the experts added that the regulatory pressure on Fannie Mae is also helping constrict its business as it cuts back some of its investing activities to preserve capital. OFHEO has ordered Fannie to raise the amount of capital it has in reserve as a percentage of its holdings, a goal the company is pursuing by conserving cash and reducing its portfolio.
"The banks are far more willing to hold adjustable-rate mortgages than 30-year fixed. With the consumer preference for adjustable rates, it's harder for [Fannie] to get the volumes. Couple that with the spreads and the political and regulatory problems surrounding portfolio growth, and it's hard for them to be growing market share," said Josh Rosner, an analyst with Medley Global Advisors LLC in New York.
Oh, but it's equally Fannie's fault because they caused some Solomon Brothers guy to invent MBS's in 1977. And it's equally Fannie's fault because Wall Street was cranking out ARMs like sausages, taking Fannie's market share, and Fannie couldn't compete due to the regulations they were under, and because shut up that's why.
Or something... :-/
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #344,928
7/19/11 6:43:47 AM
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Solomon???
"In the United States, the most common securitzation trusts are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, U.S. government-sponsored enterprises."
"In 1938, the government also created the government-sponsored corporation Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), colloquially known as Fannie Mae, to create a liquid secondary market in these mortgages and thereby free the loan originators to originate more loans,"
http://en.wikipedia....e-backed_security
Buying mortgages is what they do, expressly to provide liquidity to the market.
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
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Post #344,930
7/19/11 6:54:25 AM
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They buy "conforming" mortgages. Those weren't the problem.
http://www.fanniemae.../loanlimits.jhtml
Again, the issue was securitization of ARMS and liar loans and all the rest that the GSEs couldn't play in.
Wall Street was playing with bundled mortgages as securities in the 1970s. The GSEs didn't somehow force them in or "legitimize" the market after 2005. Buying into the notion that the GSEs were "equally at fault" or "just as bad" is as Wall Street in blowing up the mortgage and housing market in the US is as contrafactual as the noise about ACORN stealing elections.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #344,907
7/18/11 3:51:21 PM
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Pointers?
As for CDS I thought they were essentially unregulated, so no one really knows how many were issued. Is that not true of MBS?
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Drew
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Post #344,912
7/18/11 5:52:53 PM
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Re: Pointers?
google..
credit default swap market
mortgage backed securities
use the images
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
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Post #344,919
7/18/11 7:42:53 PM
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And when did Fannie come into the market?
And how much? And how did their volume compare to the market as a whole? And where is the evidence that Fannie's activities in the market caused any other activity?
You're asking me to do the work for you. From what I've seen Fannie did not drive the market. The fact that Fannie's actual default rate is significantly better than the market as a whole is sufficient for me to draw that conclusion, though there are plenty of other reasons.
You're claiming that even though Fannie didn't directly participate in the majority of the activity, the fact that they participated at all caused an increase in activity by other actors. That's a pretty significant claim, which demands significant support. If you've got that evidence, you show me where to find it.
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Drew
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Post #344,924
7/18/11 11:30:51 PM
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Here are some images.
<img src=" http://www.elliottwa...itDefaultSwap.gif">
<img src=" http://www.wikinvest...S-Market-Size.png">
<img src=" http://www.voxeu.org...%20fig%201(2).jpg">
I don't see the correlation as much...the curve for CDS was downward in 2008.
Causation is another story entirely.
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Post #344,926
7/19/11 1:21:07 AM
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Growth rate shows a downward trend
Where's the uptick in growth in response to something Fannie did?
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Drew
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