E.g. on the Public Option, there were some favorable noises by some who eventually voted against it, but I don't think he ever really did have the 60+ needed for it. The actual votes show us that he didn't.

We don't need to go through the history again (e.g. Franken being kept out for months, Kennedy dying, Coakley's loss, etc.).

I think the fact that what has passed has generally been close to what he has proposed isn't a reflection of his power ("see, he could have gotten more if he asked for it!" - as said by some), but more a reflection of his team understanding the positions of the people in the houses before making the proposals public. If it were just a matter of him asking and making the case, then Guantanamo would be closed, KSM would be on trial in NYC, he'd have a full complement of people on the Fed, Warren would be running the CFPB, etc.

Those who want to obstruct him are using every tool they can. He doesn't have bribes and punishments and favors to shower down upon them the way LBJ did; all he has is persuasion and he's done pretty well with that so far.

FWIW.

Time will tell who's closer to being right. ;-)

Cheers,
Scott.