You are missing alot of things

Post #341,219 by beepster 4/2/11 7:35:58 PM Reply	You are missing alot of things because this isn't just about oil any more. Back in the 70s...we made things. Now we BUY things. And where to we buy them from? And what is happening in the economies of those places from which we buy them? And what happened to one of the main country's infrastructure that supports many of those economies? And what are wages doing in those countries from which we buy those things? It isn't just our economy any more...because we don't MAKE what we use. Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
Post #341,220 by Another Scott 4/2/11 8:17:19 PM Reply	You're waving your hands and changing the subject. Show me some graphs and numbers and maybe we'll talk. All you've done thus far is point to excerpts of an interview with a CEO as proof that inflation is coming to the USA. When confronted with evidence that you're wrong, you make categorical statements without evidence and introduce side issues like the supposed decline in US manufacturing - http://en.wikipedia....tes#Manufacturing . By some measures, US manufacturing is still very strong: "The U.S. produces approximately 21% of the world's manufacturing output, a number which has remained unchanged for the last 40 years." Show me that I'm wrong. Maybe take a look at this and get back to me - http://www.google.co...yvuIdVTlA&cad=rja (especially pages 19 - 23 and Figure 13). Stock and Watson say US inflation is likely to continue to trend downward until employment picks up substantially. How are they wrong, too? Thanks. Cheers, Scott.
Post #341,226 by beepster 4/3/11 1:32:31 AM Reply	Re: You're waving your hands and changing the subject. http://www.newsdaily...a-economy-prices/ The PPI, which measures prices received by farms, factories and refineries, jumped 1.6 percent last month, the largest increase since June 2009, the Labor Department said. The gain was more than double economists' expectations. "You are seeing inflation on the goods side, you don't see it on the service side. This is a service economy and inflation will be driven more by wages and to this point wages are reasonable," said Levitt. "But on Main Street, you will certainly feel the shock whether it is at the gas pump or the supermarket. So...do you think anyone truly cares if PWC can hold its client rate steady or boeing can keep the price of jets in slight decline in the face of gas prices that will likely remain $3.50 plus and large scale increases in food pricing? Keep pointing at "core" inflation and plugging your ears and "la la la"ing while main street screams uncle. Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
Post #341,230 by Another Scott 4/3/11 9:33:15 AM Reply	The 12 month CPI numbers weren't core.... Monthly inflation numbers are noisy. The numbers the last 2 years have been especially noisy. That's why I cited the 12-month numbers in my post above - http://iwt.mikevital....iwt?postid=44358 . 2.1% CPI inflation over 12 months isn't anything to be upset about - especially with very high unemployment. But if you want to worry about that, and cherry-pick monthly numbers to support your case, feel free. Consumers don't pay PPI increases, businesses do. Personal Consumption Expenditures are 70% of GDP - http://www.bea.gov/s.../0311_gdpecon.pdf PCE includes services. PCE and CPI use slightly different formulas, so their changes aren't identical. http://www.bea.gov/s...r/1107_cpipce.pdf HTH. I think I'm done. Cheers, Scott.

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