Counter to the prevailing hysteria:

Post #340,505 by malraux 3/14/11 4:17:22 PM Reply	Counter to the prevailing hysteria: http://www.theregist...ushiima_analysis/ Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
Post #340,510 by Another Scott 3/14/11 5:49:48 PM Reply	I wish I was all-seeing like Lewis Page. All reactors' temperature is now under control and the residual heat reactions inside them continue to die away; soon, no further cooling will be required. Hooray! That's why they're all going on long vacations now, I guess. Oh, wait... http://www.nytimes.c...15nuclear.html?hp The plantÂs operator, Tokyo Electric Power, said late Monday that efforts to inject seawater into the reactor had failed. [...] The company said water levels were not immediately rising to the desired level, possibly because of a leak in the containment vessel. Still, a Tokyo Electric official said the situation was improving. "We do not feel that a critical event is imminent," he told a press conference. Well that's comforting. They feel it's not imminent... :-/ We'll all have to wait and see, with fingers crossed, to see how this turns out. Cheers, Scott.
Post #340,511 by boxley 3/14/11 5:52:23 PM Reply	there is a bed of graphite under the containment vessel so even if it melts the floor it is not going anywhere Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
Post #340,513 by Another Scott 3/14/11 5:59:17 PM Reply	It'll stop going down, but maybe not out in the air... Hot things have a habit of ending up in the air when they're forced to cool down rapidly. Again, I don't expect the containment vessel to fail in a major way, but there's still a significant chance of a lot of radioactivity being released. Everything isn't "under control" no matter how many nuclear engineers say there's nothing to worry about. Cheers, Scott.
Post #340,515 by folkert 3/14/11 6:10:23 PM Reply	but there's still a significant chance of... You dieing in the next 100 years. Come on Scott... these weren't Russian Power Plants. There were designed by Anal Retentive Japanese Engineers and GE engineers that thought they were crazy for the over engineering they were doing.
Post #340,516 by Another Scott 3/14/11 7:00:14 PM Reply	Yes, they're not exposed graphite piles. Yes, the steel pressure vessel is probably going to hold. At least, mostly. But they guys in Tokyo who are in "full-scale panic" are probably in a better position to know what's going on and how bad things are than a writer for TheReg in the UK. The plant is 40 years old. It doesn't have the latest safety measures that many later plants have. At least one reactor was scheduled to be shut down this month. Who knows whether some important maintenance was put off as being unnecessary or not cost-effective. http://en.wikipedia...._nuclear_accident Even anal-retentive engineers and maintenance technicians make mistakes. These TEPCO plants have had some issues in the past - http://www2.jnes.go...._power_index.html and http://www2.jnes.go...._power_index.html All commercial nuclear plants that have suffered major accidents have experienced things that the designers didn't intend or didn't consider. That's the nature of complex engineering projects. Perhaps the steel containment vessel will perform admirably for all of these at-risk reactors. I suspect and hope that they will. But I'm not at all pleased by all of the "everything's fine, it's working as designed, it's no big deal, what's everyone upset about" attitude in much of the reporting on this. This is a big deal and wasn't supposed to happen. The safety measures were supposed to ensure that the fuel rods didn't suffer from lack of coolant even in severe circumstances. The world needs to get off of burning stuff for power and transportation. Nuclear should probably have a larger role, but it's not at all clear to me that large-scale power reactors are the way to go. There comes a point where there are too many conceivable failure mechanisms that could result in large enough probability of vast contamination of the environment for the technology to be economically viable. The Shuttle solid-rocket booster O-rings had a 100% "safety margin" when they were half burned through, too... We know how that turned out. :-( The nuclear advocates out there in the press need to take what's happening to TEPCO's plants seriously. They shouldn't take the concerns as being fears of Luddites who don't know any better. If this disaster gets even a little bit worse, it may spell the end of commercial nuclear power plants in the democratic world. A substantial fraction of the population (and maybe a majority) has to support it for it to go forward, and they won't if there are continued explosions and stories in the press that the operators can't do what they say they need to do - no matter what people who "know better" say. "Who you gonna believe? Me, or your own lying eyes?" My $0.02. Cheers, Scott.
Post #340,517 by Ashton 3/14/11 7:59:25 PM Reply	Demonstrably, their major error re all the diesels was: >> NOT putting the fuel tanks UNDERGROUND!<< (As in US and most other places, I presume: this would seem to be a real Brain-Fart within an otherwise punctilious/conservative design approach elsewhere.) Tsunami is a Japanese word! and earthquakes are their daily bugaboo. Above-ground tanks supplying their BACKUP (only ONE! == another error) for the absolutely necessary mondo core-cooling pumps is, in hindsight: absolutely an inexcusable Duhh-grade oversight. Pity.. For those being queried about 'reactors', One more Time -- save your breath: here's a video by a avuncular Brit physicist, reviewing the BASICS, including the role of Boron in the control rods and various other simple concepts of the sort, always mangled by Murican-HS-edjakated talking heads, who majored in bizness. http://www.youtube.c...tch?v=-bcrLiATLq0 As to the 'mood' of Japanese boffins du jour; I seriously doubt that they are in panic-mode -- rather they are fully aware of what Might.. occur if even a few hasty/stupid actions were to be taken, next. Clearly the infusion of sea water has forever decommissioned each reactor where used: all SS parts shall have been corroded and filled with micro-cracks via Cl and other ions at v. high temps -- beyond any hope of salvage. Fortunately these reactors were already scheduled for denouement after 40 years of decent service. Concur that any Cs, I-131 etc. came from some spot in core where the Zr cladding had disintegrated (probable source point for voluminous H generation for the explosions) -- but How Many grams/kilos really did melt?? More disturbing is the inability to raise the sea-water level to cover fully the entire core == SOON. WHY?? It is almost unthinkable that there exists already a sizable hole at bottom of containment vessel, and surely they have opened other valves so that the incoming sea-water is not merely compressing any gases within -- that's the Q I want to see an answer to. Should be forthcoming within hours, I'd think. Luck to Nippon..
Post #340,527 by folkert 3/14/11 9:50:34 PM Reply	Well... okay, here goes. The reason they are in Full panic mode... is that even though they KNOW what to do and have practiced it a bah-million time, its for real this time. a Relevant but not close to scale case is this: The first time I had a REAL server down on my hands and I was 1500 miles away from (rather than 10 minutes driving), I was effectively nearly paralyzed with "How am I going to fix this?" The Latest one where a bad hard drive was swapped out (no problems there) and a new drive swapped in (lotsa problems there), caused SCSI bus errors all over the place... and then taking 4 hours to find the latent software bug... all in wanting to repair a Failed Drive in a mirrored array... Was calm and talking the whole way. Its a matter of being calm, cool, collected and well trained. That makes the big difference. Panic just doesn't make a situation good... anytime.
Post #340,651 by malraux 3/18/11 5:54:38 PM Reply	More Lewis Page. http://www.theregist...fukushima_friday/ Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
Post #340,653 by folkert 3/18/11 6:24:29 PM Reply	Evidently the panic is just that... Panic. But I'm sure just like Lews, that people will scaremonger. Heck the last core was completed in 1976. The ones around here are that old. Come on... lets all take a collectively sigh of relief... Huh AS? The whole Earthquake and Tsunami devastation has been largely ignored. The big story of that has been ignored.
Post #340,654 by static 3/18/11 7:48:09 PM Reply	Local news has started berating the coverage. For the last three days, ABC news reports have pointed out the greater problem of so many people homeless or just plain missing. Wade. Q:Is it proper to eat cheeseburgers with your fingers? A:No, the fingers should be eaten separately.
Post #340,655 by Another Scott 3/18/11 9:02:47 PM Reply	I wouldn't say "ignored" There's lots of news every day in the places I read about the earthquake and tsunami aftermath. Not so much about many other important stories - like unemployment (as Krugman pointed out today). The Fukushima story is big news because it may have direct world-wide impact, and because it is about an invisible danger (and thus is scarier). People can and do disagree about the extent of the risk - even within the nuclear field. Lewis's piece is yet again premature and over-sold. Nobody knows how much damage has been done to the plants. Nobody knows if the water pumps will work. Nobody knows the ultimate amount of radiation that will be released. (It took 4 years before they got a camera in the TMI core...) My $0.02. Cheers, Scott.
Post #340,657 by beepster 3/18/11 11:20:15 PM Reply	I don't believe that was a sigh, Mr. F. Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
Post #340,658 by Ashton 3/18/11 11:48:03 PM Reply	Exactly. Lewis' summary sentence, The prospect of any trouble at these reactors now seems remote. -- betrays his general incompetence to evaluate anything in this field. And his reliance on PEPCO briefs indicates absence of a healthy skepticism of the company's press releases [for culture-based reasons] -- as has been pointed out in many more competent essays. Details Matter, each one -- like (as you mentioned earlier) ... the near-term results of all that sea water and its known debilitating effects on strength of steel/alloys of various kind PLUS the thermal insulating properties of the brine salts themselves! being deposited: exactly what you Don't want to have to deal with, given the decay curves of ALL those individual fuel rods, in-core or in-pools. Yeah, they might dodge this howitzer shell despite all those Damocles' swords, but it Ain't Over in the foreseeable, nor will there be a decent understanding of each reactor's denouement for years, if ever. (Better not take 4 years, in 2011, to get a fiber optic camera in there!) (And as somewhere else I read.. wtf Are?? the Rad-resistant Robots! given Japan's obsession with such things.) First robot would be modeled on a bulldozer, to clear a path for the specialized models. Etc. Sheesh ... ain't smug complacency A Bitch?
Post #340,703 by malraux 3/21/11 5:28:49 PM Reply	Since you like Lewis so much... http://www.theregist..._after_weekend_2/ :-) Regards, -scott Welcome to Rivendell, Mr. Anderson.
Post #340,704 by Another Scott 3/21/11 5:44:42 PM Reply	Rofl. :-)

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