NOAA’s updated 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 90% chance of an above normal season. There is only a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and no expectation the season will be below normal. Therefore, 2010 is expected to become the eleventh above-normal season since 1995. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region (or basin) includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

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We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal (June-November) ranges of activity during 2010. These ranges are consistent with NOAA’s May outlook, and reiterate a high likelihood of a very active season (i.e. hyperactive, defined by ACE > 175% of median), perhaps one of the more active on record.

* 14-20 Named Storms,
* 8-12 Hurricanes
* 4-6 Major Hurricanes
* An ACE range of 170%-260% of the median.

The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in about 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.