Science 22 January 2010:
Vol. 327. no. 5964, pp. 454 - 458
DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568

Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes

Morris A. Bender,1,* Thomas R. Knutson,1 Robert E. Tuleya,2 Joseph J. Sirutis,1 Gabriel A. Vecchi,1 Stephen T. Garner,1 Isaac M. Held1

[...]

Rising sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and a possible increase in Atlantic basin hurricane activity since 1950 have raised concern that human-caused climate change may be increasing Atlantic hurricane activity. Increasing amounts of greenhouse gases are a likely factor in the recent warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs (1–3), although internal variability (4) and reduced aerosol or dust forcing (5, 6) may have also contributed. Some statistical analyses suggest a link between warmer Atlantic SSTs and increased hurricane activity (6–8), although other studies contend that the spatial structure of the SST change may be a more important control on tropical cyclone frequency and intensity (9–11). A few studies (6, 8, 12) suggest that greenhouse warming has already produced a substantial rise in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, but others question that conclusion (9, 11, 13).

[...]

Our results suggest that a significant anthropogenic increase in the frequency of very intense Atlantic hurricanes may emerge from the background climate variability in the latter half of the 21st century, despite a projected decrease in the overall number of hurricanes. These findings are dependent on the global climate models used to provide the environmental conditions for our downscaling experiments. Future studies should reassess our findings using both updated climate model projections and improved hurricane simulation models.