Post #333,876
10/8/10 11:10:12 AM
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lets check in with al gore shall we? He has a nobel prize
Now, the scientific community is warning us that the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming. A scientist at MIT has published a study well before this tragedy showing that since the 1970s, hurricanes in both the Atlantic and the Pacific have increased in duration, and in intensity, by about 50 %. The newscasters told us after Hurricane Katrina went over the southern tip of Florida that there was a particular danger for the Gulf Coast of the hurricanes becoming much stronger because it was passing over unusually warm waters in the gulf. The waters in the gulf have been unusually warm. The oceans generally have been getting warmer. And the pattern is exactly consistent with what scientists have predicted for twenty years. Two thousand scientists, in a hundred countries, engaged in the most elaborate, well organized scientific collaboration in the history of humankind, have produced long-since a consensus that we will face a string of terrible catastrophes unless we act to prepare ourselves and deal with the underlying causes of global warming. Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
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Post #333,880
10/8/10 11:31:18 AM
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Where is Gore wrong?
First, let's review the terms in your first post.
ACE - http://en.wikipedia....ed_cyclone_energy
The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in the season.
IOW, if you have fewer cyclones, you'll have a lower ACE for the season.
PDI - http://en.wikipedia....al_cyclone_scales
As well as being squared ACE can also be cubed, and this version is known as the Power Dissipation Index (PDI).
IOW, it's basically the same thing ACE, expressed differently.
It's been believe for a long time that hurricane seasons are affected by el Nino and la Nina (3-5 year oscillations) - http://en.wikipedia....thern_Oscillation
During the last several decades the number of El Niño events increased, and the number of La Niña events decreased.[48] The question is whether this is a random fluctuation or a normal instance of variation for that phenomenon, or the result of global climate changes towards global warming.
The studies of historical data show that the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results is that even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend[49], the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years[50].
It is not certain what exact changes will happen to ENSO in the future: different models make different predictions (cf.[51]) It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer as well), El Niño will become weaker than it was[52]. It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other[53]. More research is needed to provide a better answer to that question, but the current results do not completely exclude the possibility of dramatic changes.
[...]
El Niño is credited with suppressing hurricanes and made the 2009 hurricane season the least active in twelve years.[28] El Niño is also associated with increased wave-caused coastal erosion along the United States Pacific Coast.[citation needed]
There is some evidence that El Niño activity is correlated with incidence of red tides off the Pacific coast of California[citation needed].
[edit] Tropical cyclones
Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move poleward past the ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the Westerlies.[29] When the subtropical ridge position shifts due to El Niño, so will the preferred tropical cyclone tracks. Areas west of Japan and Korea tend to experience much fewer September-November tropical cyclone impacts during El Niño and neutral years. During El Niño years, the break in the subtropical ridge tends to lie near 130°E, which would favor the Japanese archipelago.[30] During El Niño years, Guam's chance of a tropical cyclone impact is one-third of the long term average.[31] The tropical Atlantic ocean experiences depressed activity due to increased vertical wind shear across the region during El Niño years.[32]
IOW, Rush and Maue are fighting a strawman. Gore (and the IPCC) didn't say there would be more hurricanes.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #333,883
10/8/10 11:41:52 AM
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sorry, answered at the wrong post
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
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Post #333,881
10/8/10 11:41:18 AM
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hmmm
http://www.usatoday....-hurricanes_N.htm
The number of hurricanes that develop each year has more than doubled over the past century, an increase tied to global warming, according to a study released Sunday.
"We're seeing a quite substantial increase in hurricanes over the last century, very closely related to increases in sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean," says study author Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.
http://www.scienceda.../090922112207.htm
Robert Lund, professor of mathematical sciences at Clemson, along with colleagues Michael Robbins and Colin Gallagher of Clemson and QiQi Lu of Mississippi State University, studied changes in the tropical cycle record in the North Atlantic between 1851 and 2008.
ÂThis is a hot button in the argument for global warming, said Lund. ÂClimatologists reporting to the U.S. Senate as recently as this summer testified to the exact opposite of what we find. Many researchers have maintained that warming waters of the Atlantic are increasing the strengths of these storms. We do not see evidence for this at all, however we do find that the number of storms has recently increased.Â
http://www.bloomberg...&sid=aeUSYANuz14M
Global warming is causing more frequent hurricanes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, according to a study from the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
The increased frequency of tropical cyclones ``is largely a response'' to a 1 degree Celsius rise in sea water temperatures since 1905 that was caused by greenhouse gases, the study found. Since 1995, the North Atlantic has experienced an average of 15 tropical storms a year, of which eight became strong enough to be called hurricanes. That compares with 10 tropical storms and five hurricanes per year from 1930 to 1994, the report says. and on and on and on. Dont try to pretend that it didnt happen
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
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Post #333,885
10/8/10 12:13:27 PM
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As the IPCC report said...
There are arguments on both sides. It's not settled science yet, at least in part because of difficulties with the older data. But the IPCC statement from 2007 is holding up - the average number of storms seems likely to drop, but their severity may increase.
For instance, a recent Science article from January 2010 (from people at NOAA): http://www.sciencema...full/327/5964/454
Science 22 January 2010:
Vol. 327. no. 5964, pp. 454 - 458
DOI: 10.1126/science.1180568
Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes
Morris A. Bender,1,* Thomas R. Knutson,1 Robert E. Tuleya,2 Joseph J. Sirutis,1 Gabriel A. Vecchi,1 Stephen T. Garner,1 Isaac M. Held1
[...]
Rising sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and a possible increase in Atlantic basin hurricane activity since 1950 have raised concern that human-caused climate change may be increasing Atlantic hurricane activity. Increasing amounts of greenhouse gases are a likely factor in the recent warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs (1Â3), although internal variability (4) and reduced aerosol or dust forcing (5, 6) may have also contributed. Some statistical analyses suggest a link between warmer Atlantic SSTs and increased hurricane activity (6Â8), although other studies contend that the spatial structure of the SST change may be a more important control on tropical cyclone frequency and intensity (9Â11). A few studies (6, 8, 12) suggest that greenhouse warming has already produced a substantial rise in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, but others question that conclusion (9, 11, 13).
[...]
Our results suggest that a significant anthropogenic increase in the frequency of very intense Atlantic hurricanes may emerge from the background climate variability in the latter half of the 21st century, despite a projected decrease in the overall number of hurricanes. These findings are dependent on the global climate models used to provide the environmental conditions for our downscaling experiments. Future studies should reassess our findings using both updated climate model projections and improved hurricane simulation models.
I'm not going to argue that some people said the number of storms may/will/are increasing. That's not what the IPCC report says, though.
By the time I'm 140, we'll know who was right.
HTH.
Cheers,
Scott.
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