Post #332,451
9/9/10 9:22:22 PM
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Re: The dangers of turning Japanese
Many fear that as the generation of salaried baby boomers dies out, the country's economic slide might accelerate. Japan's share of the global economy has fallen below 10% from a peak of 18% in 1994. Were this decline to continue, income disparities would widen and threaten to pull this once-stable society apart.
The reduction of global economic percent isn't a problem itself. Most of it comes because China's and India's economy have grown, not that Japan's has shrunk. The real problem is with the job markets and the internal economic system that isn't working.
The freeters have also come to see diminishing value in the grueling study and tortuous examinations required to compete for the elite jobs in academia, industry and government. With opportunities fading, long years of study are perceived as pointless. In contrast, the freeter lifestyle is one of hopping between short-term jobs and devoting energy and time to foreign travel, hobbies or other interests.
Dedicating your life to what you enjoy, rather then serving a company, really shouldn't be a problem. The real problem is that Japan's society, businesses and government are not adjusting to the new situation.
With a wealth and income divide widening along generational lines, many young Japanese are attaching themselves to their parents. Surveys indicate that roughly two-thirds of freeters live at home. Freeters ''who have no children, no dreams, hope or job skills could become a major burden on society, as they contribute to the decline in the birthrate and in social insurance contributions,'' Masahiro Yamada, a sociology professor wrote in a magazine essay titled, ''Parasite Singles Feed on Family System.''
There is a bit of truth in that, but more of it is Japanese culture having a lot of adapting to do. In some ways Japan is going through the last stage of shifting away from a feudal society. Japan went from pre-industrial to modern so fast that it's culture didn't keep up in some ways. What used to be feudal loyalty to the local lord became to loyalty to the corporation. As long as Japan's economy was expanding fast enough that companies rarely wanted to fire anybody, it could work. As soon as the economy stopped expanding it came apart. Companies are very bad at keeping social bargains, and like to improve their profits by shucking old debt rather then paying it.
More than one-third of the workforce is part-time as companies have shed the famed Japanese lifetime employment system, nudged along by government legislation that abolished restrictions on flexible hiring a few years ago. Temp agencies have expanded to fill the need for contract jobs as permanent job opportunities have dwindled.
The economists who like the idea of lots of short term labor tend to be blinded by theory and look at that huge market as leading to optimal wages. In reality though, it isn't a fair market. The companies have all the advantages, so they can push wages down to the minimum. It isn't inherently impossible, but there are a lot of things that have to change before it can really work, in both Japan and the US.
Jay
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Post #332,457
9/10/10 8:56:56 AM
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"Many fear ..."
BTP doesn't ordinarily focus on blogs, but Paul Krugman's blog is widely read, and most of us expect him to be right, so it is a big deal when he gets an important point wrong. This morning he told readers that part of the explanation for Japan's decline in per capita income relative to the U.S. is due to its aging population. He argues that his has led to a drop in the percentage of working age people in the population, which has led to a drop in per capita output.
A quick trip over to the OECD's data base tells a somewhat different story.
http://www.cepr.net/...cs-and-stagnation
--
Drew
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Post #332,458
9/10/10 9:03:11 AM
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Many expect him to be right
and he often is not. He's popular.
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
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Post #332,478
9/11/10 1:48:01 AM
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I blame ACORN.
Are we to infer that you agree with Dean now?
(I think Paul and Dean mostly agree - there's a little difference in emphasis. See Krugman's follow-up - http://krugman.blogs...in-translation-2/ - and note he cites Baker in a later post - http://krugman.blogs...e-bond-purchases/ ).
"Often" usually means more than once. It should be easy to give us more examples of Krugman being wrong. Care to enlighten us?
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #332,483
9/11/10 12:00:45 PM
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Infer nothing
and I'll endeavor to keep a running tally from here on out.
Krugman spends a lot of time stumping for the Democrats and thus supporting their agenda even in times where it doesn't warrant that support, simply because he feels the Republican option is worse.
He's stated that many times in his columns.
The reality is in between...but he's picked a side.
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
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Post #332,485
9/11/10 1:14:49 PM
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Krugman almost always shows his work...
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Post #332,489
9/11/10 5:56:28 PM
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Yes he does
and he's correct sometimes as well. His position of going hard on the chinese against buying bonds, for example...is correct. (its one of those things that will help beat down the dollar)...
His problem, as I said, is he has picked sides and it affects his analysis.
He was on record saying Fannie and Freddie had nothing to do with the housing bubble, even though they were buying close to 50% of the subprime backed securities at their high point.
I'll keep a running tab from now on, if it will make you happy ;-)
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
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Post #332,501
9/12/10 1:07:37 PM
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Happiness is good.
Don't do it for me, though. ;-)
http://www.nytimes.c...on/14krugman.html
But hereÂs the thing: Fannie and Freddie had nothing to do with the explosion of high-risk lending a few years ago, an explosion that dwarfed the S.& L. fiasco. In fact, Fannie and Freddie, after growing rapidly in the 1990s, largely faded from the scene during the height of the housing bubble.
Partly thatÂs because regulators, responding to accounting scandals at the companies, placed temporary restraints on both Fannie and Freddie that curtailed their lending just as housing prices were really taking off. Also, they didnÂt do any subprime lending, because they canÂt: the definition of a subprime loan is precisely a loan that doesnÂt meet the requirement, imposed by law, that Fannie and Freddie buy only mortgages issued to borrowers who made substantial down payments and carefully documented their income.
So whatever bad incentives the implicit federal guarantee creates have been offset by the fact that Fannie and Freddie were and are tightly regulated with regard to the risks they can take. You could say that the Fannie-Freddie experience shows that regulation works.
Don't believe Krugman?
http://www.calculate...gman-on-gses.html
Fannie and Freddie had about as much to with the "explosion of high-risk lending" as they could get away with. We are all fortunate that they couldn't get away with all that much of it. It is a fact that their market share dropped like a brick in the early years of this century, except of course for years like 2003, when fixed rates dropped to cyclical lows, refis boomed, and GSE market share shot up again, only to plummet in the years following during the purchase boom.
But they didn't like losing their market share, and they pushed the envelope on credit quality as far as they could inside the constraints of their charter: they got into "near prime" programs (Fannie's "Expanded Approval," Freddie's "A Minus") that, at the bottom tier, were hard to distinguish from regular old "subprime" except--again--that they were overwhelmingly fixed-rate "non-toxic" loan structures. They got into "documentation relief" in a big way through their automated underwriting systems, offering "low doc" loans that had a few key differences from the really wretched "stated" and "NINA" crap of the last several years, but occasionally the line between the two was rather thin. Again, though, whatever they bought in the low-doc world was overwhelmingly fixed rate (or at least longer-term hybrid amortizing ARMs), lower-LTV, and, of course, back in the day, of "conforming" loan balance, which kept the worst of the outright fraudulent loans out of the pile. Lots of people lied about their income (with or without collusion by their lender) in order to borrow $500,000 to buy an overpriced house in a bubble market. They weren't borrowing $500,000 from the GSEs.
(But we've been through this before, too...)
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
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Post #332,503
9/12/10 3:47:49 PM
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Yes we have
and they were making the market. They were complicit. Maybe not as much as they would have liked...but they were there..up to nearly 50% of the bundled securities in 03/04.
They weren't in the worst of them, that's true..otherwise they would have fully collapsed like BS...though I'm not sure what difference it would have made since we bailed them all out...not just Fred and Fan.
Sure, understanding today's complex world of the future is a little like having bees live in your head. But...there they are.
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Post #332,541
9/14/10 1:34:59 AM
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Speaking of which...
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Post #332,544
9/14/10 7:49:57 AM
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either way he is full
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
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Post #333,486
9/30/10 9:54:40 PM
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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Acquited
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are members of a long list of individuals and entities including Gary Condit, Tom Delay, Michael Jackson, Rod Blagojevich and JonBenet Ramsey's parents. These are folks who were unjustly tried and convicted in the popular press essentially on the grounds that they were creepy or otherwise unsavory characters.
As I hope to continue to argue, being creepy, a bad person, or even a usual suspect does not make one automatically guilty of any particular crime. In this case government subsidies in the housing market are a bad idea for a host of reasons and have been for years. I will testify to this with vigor and passion.
However, that does not mean that Fannie or Freddie caused the housing bubble. Indeed, by my count they were among the biggest victims of it.
source: http://www.ritholtz....reddie-acquitted/
"Chicago to my mind was the only place to be. ... I above all liked the city because it was filled with people all a-bustle, and the clatter of hooves and carriages, and with delivery wagons and drays and peddlers and the boom and clank of freight trains. And when those black clouds came sailing in from the west, pouring thunderstorms upon us so that you couldn't hear the cries or curses of humankind, I liked that best of all. Chicago could stand up to the worst God had to offer. I understood why it was built--a place for trade, of course, with railroads and ships and so on, but mostly to give all of us a magnitude of defiance that is not provided by one house on the plains. And the plains is where those storms come from."
-- E.L. Doctorow
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Post #332,459
9/10/10 9:06:14 AM
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quick block out the name, nother might get the vapors :-)
Any opinions expressed by me are mine alone, posted from my home computer, on my own time as a free American and do not reflect the opinions of any person or company that I have had professional relations with in the past 55 years. meep
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Post #332,474
9/10/10 4:49:22 PM
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Do you really think so?
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