You're not contradicting my thesis.
Your first excerpt says the deficit is larger than under Bush. How does that contradict my stating that the Debt/GDP ratio has ballooned because the economy imploded and cut tax revenue substantially?
Your second excerpt doesn't talk about debt/GDP either.
The CBO also says:
http://cboblog.cbo.gov/?p=1034
The central challenge is straightforward and stark: The rising costs of health care will put tremendous pressure on the federal budget during the next few decades and beyond.
Which is what I said. Over the
Long Term the budget needs to come closer to balance, which means increases in health care costs have to be reduced to something approaching GDP growth.
The deficit to GDP ratio is projected to drop substantially over the next few years -
http://www.whitehous...sets/hist01z2.xls (31 kB):
Year - GDP ($B) - Receipts (% of GDP) - Outlays (% of GDP) - Deficit (% of GDP)
1980 2,724.2 19.0 21.7 -2.7
1981 3,057.0 19.6 22.2 -2.6
1982 3,223.7 19.2 23.1 -4.0
1983 3,440.7 17.5 23.5 -6.0
1984 3,844.4 17.3 22.2 -4.8
1985 4,146.3 17.7 22.8 -5.1
1986 4,403.9 17.5 22.5 -5.0
1987 4,651.4 18.4 21.6 -3.2
1988 5,008.5 18.2 21.3 -3.1
1989 5,399.5 18.4 21.2 -2.8
1990 5,734.5 18.0 21.9 -3.9
1991 5,930.5 17.8 22.3 -4.5
1992 6,242.0 17.5 22.1 -4.7
1993 6,587.3 17.5 21.4 -3.9
1994 6,976.6 18.0 21.0 -2.9
1995 7,341.1 18.4 20.6 -2.2
1996 7,718.3 18.8 20.2 -1.4
1997 8,211.7 19.2 19.5 -0.3
1998 8,663.0 19.9 19.1 0.8
1999 9,208.4 19.8 18.5 1.4
2000 9,821.0 20.6 18.2 2.4
2001 10,225.3 19.5 18.2 1.3
2002 10,543.9 17.6 19.1 -1.5
2003 10,979.8 16.2 19.7 -3.4
2004 11,685.6 16.1 19.6 -3.5
2005 12,445.7 17.3 19.9 -2.6
2006 13,224.9 18.2 20.1 -1.9
2007 13,896.0 18.5 19.6 -1.2
2008 14,439.0 17.5 20.7 -3.2
2009 14,237.2 14.8 24.7 -9.9
2010 estimate 14,623.9 14.8 25.4 -10.6
2011 estimate 15,299.0 16.8 25.1 -8.3
2012 estimate 16,203.3 18.1 23.2 -5.1
2013 estimate 17,182.2 18.6 22.8 -4.2
2014 estimate 18,192.6 19.0 22.9 -3.9
2015 estimate 19,190.4 18.9 22.9 -3.9
The deficit to GDP ratio will fall substantially over the next few years, even with large deficits in dollar terms. Yes, the total debt will go up over the next few years, but most of the jump was due to the implosion of the economy as a result of Bush's policies -
http://www.whitehous...sets/hist07z1.xls .
Finally, once we're mostly out of Iraq and Afghanistan, and once we fully implement things as outlined here -
http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/fiscal - the deficit will fall still further.
Now show me how your apparent concern about Debt/GDP is more valid than that of people who are willing to get 4% from the US treasury on a 20 year bond -
http://www.ustreas.g...positeindex.shtml ? The market says it's not a problem. People who are willing to put their money where their mouth is don't seem to be worried; otherwise they'd be demanding higher rates for long bonds.
Box mentioned unemployment. Yes, it's too high. But remember this graph:
http://www.washingto...010_04/023170.php
Try again?
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.